Category Archives: BSE & NSE

Overseas Market & Cues – 18 Sep’2012

Posted on by
  • Asian markets were trading lower. China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.48% or 9.92 points at 2,068.58.
  • Japan’s Nikkei was flat at 9,163.77.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was down 0.25% or 7.58 points at 3,071.14.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite was down 0.21% or 4.16 points at 1,998.19.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was down 0.42% or 32.80 points at 7,729.42.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.16% or 32.58 points at 20,690.69.
  • The US markets snap a four-day rally, pulling back from Fed-fueled multi-year highs, amid fresh geopolitical worries and following a sharp drop in oil prices. Despite the day’s pullback, all three major averages are still up more than 3% for the month.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3% or 40.27 points at 13553.1. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.17% or 5.28 points at 3178.67. Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.31% or 4.58 points at 1461.19.
  • In stock specific action Apple crossed USD 700 a share in after-hours trading after closing at a new all-time high after the company said iphone 5 sales set a record over the weekend.
  • On economic data front, factory activity in New York state contracted for a second month in a row in September, falling to its lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years as new orders shrank further.
  • In key data to watch out for in US today, housing market index is expected to rise to 38 in September.
  • In the currency space, the dollar hovers around 7-month lows against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index was below the 79 mark.
  • In commodities, Brent crude slipped to USD 111 levels in 3 minutes yesterday. It pares its losses to trade back above USD 114. In the meanwhile the US commodity futures trading commission is looking into the reason for the fall.
  • From the previous metals space, gold prices slip marginally to USD 1760 levels.
  • Indian ADRs ended lower on Monday. In the IT space, Wipro was down 0.78% at USD 8.92, Patni was down 0.21% at USD 19.06 and Infosys was up 0.08% at USD 48.19.
  • In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was down 0.32% at USD 37.02 and ICICI Bank was up 2.38% at USD 39.1. In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was down 1.22% at USD 8.88 and MTNL was down 2.04% at USD 1.44.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 0.13% at USD 7.69, Tata Motors was down 1.61% at USD 25 and Dr Reddys was down 2.83% at USD 30.93.

Market cues:

  • FIIs net buy USD 522 million in cash market on Sep 14
  • MFs net sell Rs 202 crore in cash market on Sep 14
  • As per provisional data of September 17, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 2252 crore in cash market. FIIs were net buyers of Rs 1976 cr in F&O. DIIs were net sellers of Rs 838 cr in cash market.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest market range of 5400-5700
  • Total Puts add 42.4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls adds 10.3 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5800 Call adds 22 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5700 Call adds 7.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5600 Put adds 11 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Put adds 9 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5600 Call sheds 14 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 12.3 lakh shares in OI
  • Stock Futures adds 62.2 lakh shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.1 from 1.03
  • India VIX closed at 17.78 up by 15.6%
  • FIIs in F&O on Sep 17
  • FIIs net buy Rs 1122 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int contracts up by 21420
  • FIIs net buy Rs 541 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int contracts up by 118440
  • FIIs net buy Rs 428 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int contracts up by 11715

Commodities Outlook for Gold, Silver, Crude Oil & Natural Gas for 13 Sep’2012

Posted on by

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31523-32279.

Gold turned lower as investors took profits after ahead of a closely watched policy statement from the U.S. FED.

Germany’s Constitutional Court gave a green light to ratify the euro zone’s new bailout Fund SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 3.72 tonnes to 1289.42 tonnes.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 60473-66159.

Silver turned lower as investors took profits after the metal rose toward 64755 ahead of statement from Fed.

U.S. wholesale inventories in July rose by the most in five months, beating forecasts

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 12.06 tonnes to 9791.49 tonnes

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 57386, with intraday support seen at 60473 and resistance at 66159.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5288-5436.

Crude oil slipped as data showing an unexpected rebound in U.S. crude inventories pulled prices back

Brent prices drew support from reports that militants killed the US ambassador refueling concerns over geopolitical risk.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose 1.99 million barrels to 359.09 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 7

Crude is holding with a support at 5288 and resistance will be likely at 5436.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 444.5-460.9.

Copper dropped in anticipation of more monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve the following day.

German court approves euro-zone bailout vehicle, soothes concerns about region

Investors’ mood has lifted in recent days after China announced a $150 billion infrastructure program

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215775mt that is up by 1175mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 108.47-112.57.

Zinc ended with slight gains after German constitutional court decided ESM is legal

Germany’s Constitutional court said ESM could go ahead but German contribution above 190 billion euros would require prior approval

Chinese zinc smelters are cutting the most production in at least nine years after prices tumbled into a bear market.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 930050mt that is down by -3050mt

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 897.93-950.

Nickel settled down on profit booking but downside was limited as German constitutional court approved the ESM

FOMC will release the latest interest rate decision and issue monetary policy statement as well

Germany’s Constitutional Court gave a green light to ratify the euro zone’s new bailout Fund

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 120816mt that is up by 6mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Natural Gas trading range for the day is 161.27-173.07.

Natural gas ended with gains on weather and in anticipation of Today’s data.

Market players continued to focus on updated weather forecasts to gauge the strength of early-Autumn cooling demand

Today natural gas storage: EXP: 26B PREV: 28B. Actual is at 8.00PM

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 161.27 and resistance will be likely at 173.07.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 112.67-115.37.

Aluminium gains as euro gains after Germany’s Constitutional Court ratified the bailout fund by ESM supported

Prices will be trapped within tight range as investors are wary prior to the results of t Fed interest rate meeting

U.S. wholesale inventories in July rose by the most in five months, beating forecasts

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4854325mt that is down by -8500mt.

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1275.6-1349.2.

Mentha oil spot is at 1497/-.Spot market is up by Rs.14/-.

Mentha oil declines as reports of ban on Gutka in some more states kept trend weak

Overall trading activities remained low but traders expect pickup in demand in the coming weeks.

The total arrivals stood steady at 600-650 drums.

Today Commodity Advises:

  • BUY COPPER NOV ABOVE 453 SL 445 TGT 457.50-461.50-466.
  • BUY NICKEL @ 918-922 SL 910 TGT 932-945-956
  • SELL MENTHA OIL MCX SEPT BELOW 1312 SL 1325 TGT 1300-1292-1280.
  • SELL SOYABEAN NCDEX OCT BELOW 3790 SL 3820 TGT 3768-3745-3720.

Nifty Future & FII Derivative Data – 13 September’2012

Posted on by
  • Nifty Future made a fresh September series high today at 5453. IIP data came at 0.1 which is as per market expectation. Another important Global event German Court gave in favor of using ESM and Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund with Conditions so nothing is stopping Bulls. Always remember hot money chase the momentum and in liquidity driven rally fundamental will take the back seat. So do not waste your time in finding top and bottom, Stay with trend and mint money.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Tata Motors, LT, Jindal Steel and Tata Steel.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Siemens, Cipla, Ntpc and Bhel.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 18249 Contracts of Index Future, worth 437.39 cores  with net OI increasing by 13123 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 42 points and OI has increased by 13123, FII have imitated fresh long in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future. Momentum is on higher side and weakness is still not present in Nifty Future.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5431 after making a high of 5436. Sensex has made a fresh 7 month high ie. 18012 so now its Nifty turn to break 5450.We have big gap from 5217-5309 formed on Friday and it’s been 5 days Bulls are able to defend the higher levels, Nifty continue to march higher after Monday consolidation. Also be noted Nifty has given highest close of 5331 on closing basis after it made the low of 4770
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5450 and 5462 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5424 and 5395 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5339 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.84 cores with a fresh addition of 5.5 Lakh in OI, long addition is seen in Nifty future.
  • Total F&O turnover was  1.16 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at  2.18  lakh.PCR at 1.03 and VIX 15.03.Cash volumes show a jumped of 10% showing rise is backed by deliveries in Stocks.
  • 5600 CE  is having highest OI of 83 lakhs with an addition of 6 lakhs in OI.5500 CE is having second highest OI at  OI at 78  lakhs, Immediate resistance is at 5500 CE. 5000-5600 CE saw an unwinding of 2.6 lakhs in OI. So Bulls are all over the place.
  • 5300 PE added another 9 lakhs so 5300  and 5400 PE added huge 14 lakh, Bulls want to make the 5400 as base for the rest of September series.5000-5600 PE added  huge 29 lakhs in Open Interest so bulls are cementing ground for 5400 tomorrow. Now Bulls need to defend the 5400 base for rest of week.
  • FII bought 451 cores and DII sold 55.76 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 55.3. FII has bought 2ooo cores in cash market.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5384, Trend Changer at 5324 NF. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5353
  • 20 DMA at 5341
  • 50 DMA at 5281
  • 200 DMA at 5138
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 80 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 64. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zipper levels at 5488 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5422 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5400 later dipping levels near 5377 marks.

Nifty Future Call for 13 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Momentum Call – Buy above 5466 sl 5444 Tgt 5488-5511 {Or} Sell Below 5422 sl 5444 Tgt 5400-5377.

Bank Nifty Momentum Call for 13 Sep’2012:

Buy above 10266 sl 10222 Tgt 10311-10355 {Or} Sell below 10177 sl 10222 Tgt 10133-10088.

Market Weekly Outlook 10-14 September’2012

Posted on by
  • Advance tax data for Q2 September 2012, policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates and mid-quarter policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will dictate near term trend on the bourses.
  •  Advance tax data for the 2nd installment due on 15 September 2012 could provide cues on the likely corporate earnings for Q2 September 2012.
  • The RBI is scheduled to undertake a mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on 17 September 2012. RBI last cut rates by 0.5 percentage point to 8% from 8.5% in April, its first move to reverse a 20-month rate-tightening cycle. It then held rates steady in June and at its last rate-setting meeting on July 31, saying that a cut would exacerbate inflationary pressures. Weak government finances and high crude oil prices remain a concern. Weakening tax revenue amid a sharp slowdown in the economy has put further stress on the government’s financial health.
  • The government has very limited time to take economic reform measures given that assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (HP) are scheduled in December this year. It will be difficult for the government to enact controversial measures close to the assembly polls. After elections in Gujarat and HP, assembly elections are planned in a total of 10 states during the period from March 2013 to January 2014. The next general election is due in May 2014.
  • On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest rates on September 12-13. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged in an Aug. 31 speech to promote growth with “additional policy accommodation as needed.
  • Election for a new president in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
  • Germany’s constitutional court will decide on Wednesday, 12 September 2012, whether the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) ~ the proposed permanent successor to the euro-zone’s current emergency lender viz. the European Financial Stability Mechanism ~ violates German law and the Maastricht Treaty’s ‘no bailout’ clause.
  • The results of a detailed audit on the capitalization needs of Spain’s banks are expected in mid-September 2012.

Nifty Weekly View:

  • SEEING THAT WE POSTED HERE NIFTY RETEST THE TREND LINE ON THURSDAY. ECB GIVE GREEN SIGNAL TO BULLS AND ON FRIDAY BULLS HIT A CENTURY.
  • BULLS HAVE NO CONCERN AS LONG AS NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 5222. BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR FEW WEEKS.
  • AT THE MOMENT 5449 HIGH MADE ON 23RD AUGUST IS THE NEXT BIG RESISTANCE FOR BULLS. BEFORE THAT 5400 WILL ACT AS MINOR RESISTANCE.
  • OUR SHORT TERM TARGET FOR NIFTY REMAIN SAME AS FOLLOWS:
  • THE MINIMUM TARGET WILL BE 4770+1097=5867. ONLY A CLOSE BELOW 4977 WILL TERMINATE ABOVE VIEW.
  • WEEKLY VIEW: BULLS WHO INITIATED LONGS ON SATURDAY CAN KEEP 5311 AS SL. WHO HAVE MISSED ON SATURDAY CAN INITIATE LONGS ON MONDAY.
  • Weekly Resistance at  5422-5411
  • Weekly Trend Deciding Level at 5333
  • Weekly Support at 5288-5244

Gold Weekly View

  • Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 31,311.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 31,186.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 32,004.00 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,700.00–31,640.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 31,400.00-31,340.00 levels. Trading consistently below 31,320.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,995.00 then 30,881.00 and then finally towards the major support at 30,625.00 levels.
  • Resistance is observed in the range of 32,220.00-32,250.00 levels. Trading consistently above 32,260.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 32,490.00-32,520.00 levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 33,024.00 levels.

 Gold Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: UP
  • Support at 31,700.00-31,400.00
  • Resistance at 32,220.00-32,520.00
  • Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,650-31,600 SL 31,380 Target 31,950-32,200

                                                                           {Or}

               Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 32,500-32,520 SL 32,850 Target 32,150-21,700

Silver Weekly View

  • Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 61,061.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 60,712.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,470.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 63,000.00-62,000.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 61,800.00-61,700.00 levels. Trading consistently below 61,700.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 60,940.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 59,500.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 65,200.00-65,250.00 levels and then strong resistance is seen at 66,400.00-66,600.00 levels. Multiple closing above 66,600.00 levels would further extend the current rally initially towards 70,000.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 71,034.00 levels.

Silver Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 62,970.00-61,700.00
  • Resistance at 665,200.00-66,400.00
  • Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 63,000-62,900 SL 61,600 Target 64400-65200.

                                                                              {Or}

               Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 66,400-66,500 SL 67,500 Target 65300-63450.

 

Copper Weekly View:

  • Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened on its low at 427.65 levels and then rallied sharply breaking both the resistances towards 450.60 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 443-442 levels and further below strong support is seen at 436-4330 levels. Multiple closing below 433 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 427 and then finally towards 419.80 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 456-457 levels. Trading consistently above 458 levels would further lead towards 460 and then finally towards the all time high at 466.20 levels.

Copper Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Side-Ways
  • Support at 443-436
  • Resistance at 456-465
  • Advice:  Buy Copper Mcx Nov Around 443-442 SL 435 Target 451-455.

 

Crude Weekly View:

  • Crude September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5375.00 levels initially moved sharply higher, but found good resistance at 5438.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5212.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5206.00-5185.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5175.00 levels would trigger sharp fall towards the strong support at 5105.00-5090.00 levels. Daily closing below 5090.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 5037 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4940.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 5430.00-5450.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5450 levels would renew the previous week’s rally initially towards 5547.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5602.00 levels.

Crude Oil Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 5206.00-5100.00
  • Resistance at 5430.00-5547.00
  • Advice:  Buy Crude MCX Sep Around 5285-5275 SL 5180 Target 5390-5420

Economic Indicators For The Week:

Public issue – NCD Issue from Shriram City Union Finance Ltd.

Posted on by

Introduction:

Shriram City Union Finance, a deposit-taking NBFC belonging to the Chennai-based Shriram Group, is entering the debt capital market for the second time, with a public issue of secured redeemable non-convertible debentures (NCDs) of face value Rs. 1,000 each, to raise Rs. 250 crore with an option to retain another Rs 250 crore, taking the total fund raising to Rs. 500 crore.

Public Issue:

The issue opens on 12th September and closes on 24th September 2012, with an option in company’s hands to either close the issue earlier or extend the closing. Minimum application amount is Rs 10,000, and in multiples of Rs, 1,000 thereof.

Rating: ‘AA’ by CARE and ‘AA-/Stable’ by CRISIL indicating high degree of safety for timely servicing of financial obligations

Listing: To be listed on NSE and BSE with one NCD comprising a trading lot. NCD would be issued and traded only in the demat form.

What’s on offer: The NCD issue has 4 investment options as under:

Particulars

Series I

Series II

Series III

Series IV

Frequency Of Interest Payment

Annual

Annual

On Redemption

On Redemption

Tenure

3 Years

5 Years

3 Years

5 Years

Individual Investor

11.50%

11.75%

N.A

N.A

Non-Individual Investor

10.60%

10.75%

N.A

N.A

Effective yield         {% P.A}

Individual Investor

11.50%

11.75%

11.50%

11.75%

Non-Individual Investor

10.60%

10.75%

10.60%

10.75%

Put/Call Option

None

None

None

None

Redemption Amount {NCD}

Individual Investor

Face Value + Accrued Interest

Face Value + Accrued Interest

Rs. 1,386.20

Rs. 1,743.30

Non-Individual Investor

Rs. 1,352.90

Rs. 1,666.65

Allocation Ratio: 80% issue reserved for resident individuals / HUFs – split equally between investment application upto Rs. 5 lakh and for investment application above Rs. 5 lakh. 10% of the issue reserved for institutions, while balance 10% for non-institutional category. Thus, greater reservation for individual’s vis-à-vis issue of India Infoline Finance.

Company Background:

Shriram City Union Finance, specializing in retail finance such as auto loans, small business loans, consumer finance, personal loans and gold loans, has a network of over 575 branches and 91 other business outlets across 17 Indian states. For FY12, company clocked consolidated total income of Rs. 2,057 crore and PAT of Rs. 338 crore, on equity of Rs. 52.3 crore and networth of Rs. 1,731 crore. With AUMs of Rs. 13,431 crore as of 31st March 2012, the company’s capital adequacy stood at 17.4% (versus RBI stipulated 15%) while its net NPAs were 0.38% of loan assets, as on that date. Thus, the company has a healthy financial position along with a strong balance sheet. Funds raised via the NCD issue will be uses in regular financing business and repaying some existing debt.

Rate of Return:

11.75% interest rate on 5 year NCDs seems attractive for retail investment in fixed income securities, given the longer tenure of the instrument, ensuring that capital is earning higher rate. No bank is offering interest rates in double digit on fixed deposits of 5 years and above. Moreover, once RBI states easing policy rates, these rates on fixed instruments will only head south.

Previous NCD Issue:

Last August, the company had raised Rs. 750 crore through secured NCDs at 11.50%-12.10% interest p.a. with 3-5 years tenure. These previously-issued secured NCDs are on NSE trading with yields of about 11.1% – 11.4% per annum for 3 year NCDs and 11.5% – 11.6% for 5 year NCDs. Thus, 11.75% pa is an attractive rate of return for retail individual investors in the current offering for 5 years.

Comparison with India Infoline NCD:

Shriram is offering secured NCDs vis-à-vis India Infoline Finance which is offering 13.52% effective yield for 6 years with monthly interest payment on unsecured NCDs. Thus, the security factor is compensating the coupon rate / yield.

Conclusion:

Tax-free HUDCO bonds are on BSE trading at yields of about 7.5%. At 11.75% pa, Shriram City’s NCDs lead to effective post-tax return of 8.12%, assuming highest tax bracket of 30.90%. Hence, ignoring the time frame, these NCDs fare favourably against the listed tax-free bonds.

 Recommendation:

The current NCD issue from the Shriram stable (after Shriram Transport Finance) is attractive for retail investors as it offers high ‘fixed returns’ for a long-term duration of 5 years. It fares better than bank FD, company fixed deposits and listed tax free bonds with respect to rate of return. Those looking for diversified investment options can go for the issue with 5 years tenure, either with annual interest payment option or at redemption, based on an individual’s cash flow needs.

Moreover, ahead of RBI’s policy review on 17th September, other NBFCs are also likely to announce public issue of secured NCDs such as Religare Finvest, Muthoot Finance and SREI Infrastructure Finance. So keep a watch on the upcoming issues as well.

Company Registered Office:

Shriram City Union Finance Ltd,

123, Angappa Naicken Street,

Chennai- 600 001, Tamil Nadu

Phone: + 91 44 4392 5300

Fax: +91 44 4392 5430

Lead Managers:

  1. A.K Capital Services Limited
  2. Edelweiss Capital Limited
  3. JM Financial Consultants Pvt. Ltd.

IPO Offer – Non-Convertible Debenture (NCD) of India Infoline Finance (IIFL)

Posted on by

Introduction:

The Non-Convertible Debenture (NCD) issuance of India Infoline Finance (IIFL) has managed to collect over Rs 110 crore on Wednesday, the first day of subscribing to the issue, according to sources in merchant banking circles. A host of wealth managers have given a thumbs up to the unsecured NCD issuance bearing a face value of Rs 1000 aggregating up to Rs 500 crores including green-shoe option.

IPO Issue Details:

 The Issue Comes on 5th September’2012 and done on a first-come-first-serve basis, closes on 18th September’2012, with an option in company’s hand to either close tha issue earlier or extend the closing. Minimum Application amount is Rs. 5,000 and Multiplies of Rs. 1,000 thereof.

IPO Rating:

However the issue has got a rating of AA- from both CRISIL and ICRA. Hence for investors who are looking for utmost safety as the first criteria, they should give this issue a clear miss.

IPO Listing:

To be Listed on Both Nse & Bse with one NCD comprising trading lot. NCD would be issued both in Physical and demat form, but can be traded on the Exchanges in demat form.

IPO Offer:

The 5 Year above NCD issue has 3 Investment Options as under:

Essentials Interest Payments Interest Rate {P.A} Effective Yield {P.A}
Option 1 Monthly 12.75% 13.52%
Option 2 Annually 12.75 12.75%
Option 3 Cumulative* Not Applicable 12.75%*

*Redemption amount at the end of 6 Years is 2,054.50 per NCD.

Allocation Ratio: 50% Issue reserved for Residential Individuals/HUFs-split equally between investment application upto Rs. 5 Lakhs and investment above Rs. 5 Lakhs 40% of the issue reserved institutions, while 10% balance for HNI’s.

Company Background:

The Company in Mortgage loans and capital market finance {loan against shares, margin funding etc} with mortgage loans accounted for 45% of its Rs. 6,746 crore loan book as of March 31st 2012, while gold loans accounted for 41%, Capital market finance 12% and balance 1% in Health Care.

For FY 12, Its Consolidated income from operations was Rs. 908 Crores with PAT at Rs. 105 Crore. With a Networth of Rs. 1,145 Crore as of 31st March 2012, company has highly leveraged with Rs. 5,938 Crore debt, including bebt-Equity ratio of 4.1:1, up from 1.6:1 as of 31st march 2011, when debt was Rs. 2,083 Crore. The current fund-raising, to be used for company’s financing activities, will only aggregate the debt-Equity ratio further.

Positives:

The 12.75% Interest rate seems attractive for retail investors in fixed income securities, given the longer tenure for the instrument for 6 Years, ensuring that capital earning the premium rate. No bank is offering interest rates in double digit on fixed deposit of 5 Years and above.

Concerns:

  1. Unsecured nature of Instrument
  2. Business operations involving in Risky areas of capital market fiancé.
  3. Parentage

Past NCD Issue:

Last August, The Company called as India Infoline Investment Services, has raised Rs. 750 Crores through NCD at 11.70-11.90% with 3-5 Years Tenure. In comparison of year ago the Interest rates are quite attractive, as the current NCD has unsecured, where last year secured NCD issued. These previously NCDs {Secured} are currently trading on NSE with yields of about 11.70% to 12% per annum.

Conclusion:

A head of RBI’s policy review on 17th September, may NBFC s having received SEBI nod, are likely to announce public issue of secured NCDs in the coming fortnight  ~ Religare Finvest, Muthoot Finance, Shriram City Union for Rs. 500 crores each and SREI Infrastructure Finance for Rs. 150 Crores .

 NCDs of other companies which are currently listed such as Shriram Transport Finance, provide greater comfort as they came large and more respected corporate, in addition to being secured instrument. Secured 5-Year NCDs of Shriram Transport Finance, issued just a last month, are currently trading at yields 11.5% to 11.8% per annum on the NSE.

IPO Recommendation:

Option I (Monthly interest payment): The redemption date is 72 months from the deemed date of allotment and the coupon rate is 12.75% p.a. The interest payment frequency is monthly and the face value plus any interest that may have accrued is payable on redemption. The effective yield on this option is 13.52% per annum. This can be termed as the ‘Small-Cap” of debt market.

For HNIs and large investors falling in the maximum tax bracket, as also, looking at the current yields on tax free bonds. Available in the secondary market and unsecured nature in NCDs from India infoline, yields looks moderate. Considering all this, put a small amount in this and wait for other better instrument for little safer and large users.

IPO Lead Managers:

The lead managers to this offer are Axis Bank Limited, SBI Capital Markets Limited, Edelweiss Financial Services Limited, Trust Investment Advisors Private Limited and India Infoline Limited (only for marketing of the Issue), while the Co-lead managers to the Issue are RR Investors Capital Services (P) Limited and Karvy Investor Services Limited.

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 04 September’2012

Posted on by
  • The Bse Index put up the lid at 17384 down 45 points or -0.26% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5254, down 5 points or -0.09% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 780 against declines of 635 on the NSE.
  • The stock markets closed with moderate declines today with realty being the most awful performer.
  • PMI data Purchasing Manufacturing Index was released for European countries and India Summing the data Indicates 80% Of the World Is Now in Contraction. Chinese stock market last week made 3 year low, we always say stock market discounts news well in advance and on Sunday we got the news Chinese PMI contracted first time in 9 months. Never fight the market and flow with the trend is the general hypothesis which has been proven correct before, today and in future also.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Ranbaxy, Coal India,Baja-Auto and Maruti.
  • Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sail, Tata Poer, Jindal Steel and Idfc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 6935 Contracts of Index Future, worth 190 cores with net OI decreasing by 6289 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 8 points and OI has decreased by 6289,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series. So FII have been reducing the long exposure in Index future and shorting stock futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5254 after making the higher low of 5243, but bulls were disappointed as Nifty closed below crucial level of 5260. Only we have been advocating Nifty is in Sell on Rise mode which proved again today as Nifty used the weekend development on GAAR issue to open up but selling resumed at higher levels and closed near the lows of the day.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5295 and 5315 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5238 and 5220 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5335 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.97 cores with an addition of 1.47 Lakh in OI, So shorts have started entering the system. Rollover range for September Series comes at 5400-5290. We have closed below 5290 today so we can see follow up action tomorrow bears pressing more on downside.
  • Total F&O turnover was highest ever to 0.76 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.92 lakh. Cash volumes were dismissal today.
  • 5400 CE is having highest OI of 57 lakhs with an addition of 9.5 lakhs in OI. 4900-5600 CE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • 5200 PE added 4.8 lakh in OI and having the highest  OI at 63 lakhs so 5200 is firm base at the starting of September series,4900 PE added 10 lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of 1117 cores in Index Options, so smart money is Buying 4900 PE.4900-5600 PE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • FII  sold 54 cores and DII  sold 160 cores in cash segment, Both FII and DII were sellers in cash segment second day in a row.INR closed at 55.52 . FII were again sellers of 254 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is at 5239, Trend Changer at 5303 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5290
  • 20 DMA at 5335
  • 50 DMA at 5260
  • 200 DMA at 51210
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 24 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5266 and above the level marks the track point at 5288 later zipper levels at 5311 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5244 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5222 later dipping levels near 5200 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 04 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Call – Buy above 5288 sl 5266 Tgt 5311-5333 {Or} Sell Below 5266 sl 5266 Tgt 5244-5222.

Market Outlook – Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data for 31 August’2012

Posted on by

As per market outlook, the BSE Index put up the lid at 17542 up 51 points or +0.29% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5315 up 27 points or +0.52% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.4% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.3% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 716 against declines of 706 on the NSE.

The market traded volatile in yesterday’s ttrade and closed with moderate gains.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Dlf, Idfc, Hindalco and Jp Assosiate.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Tata Steel, Gail, Jindal Steel and Bpcl.

FII Derivative Data:


  • FII sold 2041 Contracts of Index Future, worth 6 cores with net OI decreasing by 19355 contracts.
  • Since Nifty Future was down by 50 points and OI has decreased by 19355, FII have booked profit in longs, as the total OI is down by 19K and sell figure is just 6 cores meaning they sold longs and have shorted partially.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5288 after making the low of 5283, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5325 got broken on Nifty. Ahead of expiry breaking of 5300 is a danger for bulls as expiry pressure can bring a swift fall and gap filling till 5216 can take place.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5309 and 5329 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5266 and 5243 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5329 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 1.6 cores with an unwinding  of 41 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.53 lakhs so 36 lakhs  got roll overed Longs are getting roll overed to next series.
  • Whole F&O turnover was 1.70 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.53 lakh, Breadth was terrible and stocks were falling like nine pins.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 14.6 lakhs with total OI now standing at 49 lakhs. 5300 CE has premium of Rs 15 and Call writers have added 14.6 lakhs OI, so 5300 will be immediate resistance for market tomorrow.
  • 5300 PE sheded 19 lakh in OI and having the OI at 76 lakhs put writers ran for cover as Nifty broke and closed below 5300.5200 PE is next support at per Option table as we have gap from 5266-5219 so do not be surprised if we see 5219 tomorrow. As of now 5200 is strong base from market. FII have sold 771 cores in Options suggesting selling in Put options they were holding as hedge, Are we near reversal?
  • FII bought 143 cores and DII sold239 cores in cash segment. INR closed at 55.67. FII were again sellers of 579 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is @ 5299, Trend Changer is @ 5327,  Nifty were consolidating near 5327-5332 range before falling and we got early indication of fall as we traded 2 hours below 5327. For tomorrow this level will be tough resistance to crack. (Beyond this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Beneath this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5335
  • 20 DMA at 5333
  • 50 DMA at 5256
  • 200 DMA at 5120
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 38 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 41. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5333 and above the level marks the track point at 5355 later zipper levels at 5400 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5288 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5266 later dipping levels near 5244 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 30 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5333 sl 5311 Tgt 5355-5400 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5288 sl 5311 Tgt 5266-5244.

Nifty out Look, FII Derivative Data, Nifty Future Momentum Call – 29 August’2012

Posted on by

The Bse Index put down the lid at 17632 down 47 points or -0.27% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5335 down 15 points or -0.29% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Small cap index was down 1.4% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 335 against declines of 1096 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate declines today with metal taking a severe beating.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Power Grid, Tcs, Asian Paints and Dr. Reddy.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Ster, Jindal Steel, Jp  Assosiates and Hindalco.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 15439 Contracts of Index Future, worth 433 cores with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 16 points and OI has increased by 69021, FII have created fresh longs in index futures ahead of expiry. FII buying is quiet visible even though mid caps and small cap Index were down by 1.1.5% NF was down by just 16 points.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5335 after making the low of 5313; Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5341 got broken on Nifty. Bears were unable to break the crucial support of 5313 which also is the low for today, shows next 2 days Bulls can be on roar if 5300 is not broken tomorrow.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5361 and 5392 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5313 and 5294 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5325 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.0 cores with an unwinding of 32 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollover to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.16 lakhs so 32 lakhs got rollover and 24 lakh extra addition in OI. Longs are getting rollover to next series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.73 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.66 lakh, Volumes were quiet high today looking at brutal fall we have seen in mid caps stocks Adani, JIndals.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 5 lakhs with total OI now standing at 34 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 18 lakhs and total OI stands at 85 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are assuming Nifty will expire below 5400 and they can eat the whole premium, 5400 is immediate ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE sheded 12 lakh in OI and having the OI at 95 lakhs which suggests traders are getting little jittery that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 third day running,  and Put writers got jittery as Nifty came near 5313. 5300 seems a strong base and 5400 strong resistance for next 2 days.FII net sold 877 cores in Options suggesting profit booking in Put option as they saw a huge unwinding of 25 lakhs basically in 5300 and 5400 PE.
  • FII bought 93 cores and DII sold 314 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.6. FII were again sellers of 551 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5328, Trend Changer at 5327 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5380
  • 20 DMA at 5325
  • 50 DMA at 5247
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 434 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 54. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5355 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 29 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5355 sl 5333 Tgt 5400-5444{Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5311 sl 5333 Tgt 5288-5266.

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 28 August’2012

Posted on by

The Bse Index put down the lid at 17679 down 104 points or -0.59% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5350 down 36 points or -0.68% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.8% and BSE Small cap index was down 1% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 418 against declines of 1021 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate losses today with realty, banking and capital goods being the biggest losers.

Top Nse India Gainers were: M7M, Power Grid, Cairn and Hindunilvr.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Jindal Stee, Pnb, Jp Assosiate and Idfc.

Market Signs:

  • HCL Infosystems Q4 cons net loss at Rs.2 cr Vs profit of Rs.23 cr (QoQ).
  • S Mobility Q1 cons net loss at Rs.5.2 cr Vs loss of Rs.20 cr (QoQ); cons net sales at Rs.511.3 cr Vs Rs.553.3 cr (QoQ).
  • Jain Irrigation board will meet today to approve issue of securities.
  • Trent has issued 5.26 lakh shares to Tata Sons subsidiaries at Rs 980/share on preference basis.
  • Welspun Corp has raised Rs 200 cr via NCD (non convertible debentures) issue.
  • The board members of Bajaj FinServ will meet to consider the rights issue on August 29.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 1302 cr order from Petroleum Development Oman.
  • MoS, Oil says cannot hike diesel price due to inflation.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 749 cr order from ONGC for 4 Wellhead platforms.
  • L&T signs share sale and purchase agreement with Japan’s Toshiba Machine Co to sell its entire stake in L&T Plastics Machinery Ltd.
  • Supreme Court has sought pollution board’s report on Sterlite’s Tuticorin Plant by September-end.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 13648 Contracts of Index Future, worth 384 cores with net OI increasing by 13010 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 40 points and OI has increased by 13010, FII are booking profits in longs. No shorts have been created as per data analyzed.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5350 after making the low of 5346 near to our 1 tgt of 5341, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they were unable to close nifty above 5400, We have discussed the resistance at 5401 and Nifty made a high of 5399 today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5366 and 5401 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5341 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5313 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.3 cores with an unwinding of 18 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 60 lakhs so 18 lakhs got roll overed and 7 lakh extra addition.
  • Total Future & Option turnover was 1.19 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 1.89  lakh,Cash volumes were very dismissal at 5051 now this signify the fall was in technical in nature no major selling has happened today. So tomorrow we can see a reverse up move if 5341 is not broken. In past, whenever Nifty has formed a low near the support with falling volumes (as compared to previous sessions) we observed minor bottom reversal pattern. Today’s decline with falling volume (compared to Friday) could be a sign of possible reversal.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.7 lakhs with total OI now standing at 29 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 10 lakhs and total OI stands at 66 lakhs so 5400 CE writers, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 1.05 core lakhs,so 5400 is the ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE added 3.2 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.08 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 second day running, 5400 PE saw an huge unwinding, as Expiry is 3 trading session away. Looking at huge unwinding i accept nifty to come near 5400 tomorrow.
  • FII bought 200 cores and DII sold 500 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.7. FII has bought 8046 Cr in cash market in August series.FII sold 551 of stock futures also
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5347, Trend Changer at 5326 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5397
  • 20 DMA at 5313
  • 50 DMA at 5243
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 40 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 56. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5333 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5311 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 28 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5377 sl 5355 Tgt 5399-5422 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5333 sl 5355 Tgt 5311-5288.