Crude Commodity Trading as per major updates, API inventory number released early today morning showed rise in crude inventories by 1.2 million barrels, which was lower than markets estimates. Products did saw modest decline mainly the gasoline stocks which fell by 500,000 barrels through Oct 17, Bloomberg news showed. For more important DoE inventory data to be released today evening (IST), estimates call for a rise in crude stocks by 3 million barrels whereas products stocks are seen sliding with gasoline stockpiles likely fell by 1.45 million barrels. Total gasoline stocks in the US are seen diving down towards 204.2 Mln barrels, its lowest since November 2012. While rising crude stocks and moderate fall in products inventories even out each other, we are not expecting inventory numbers to be the major mover today. If we talk about other major developments, very strong increase in US equities which is driving similar gains in Asia is seen supporting the optimism in industrial commodities including oil. Herein yesterday’s better hinnies GDP number and firm US housing data is also seen supporting. Oil prices broadly are taking a pullback after last week sliding to multi-year lows and moving in a technically bear market territory as equated to 2014 highs. Though overall bias still stays weak, we feel it may see some more gains for a few sessions before the prior trend regains its hold back. For intraday, we recommend buying the commodity on small dips.

Global Market View: In today’s morning trade all the Asian equity markets are trading on a positive note tracking the positive close of the US equity markets. Markets globally have been gaining traction lately with anticipation that ECB stimulus would fuel excess liquidity in the financial system, compensating the vacuum created by the FED. S&P 500 closed at 1941.28 up by almost 2 percent yesterday buoyed by ECB expectations and better than expected results from Apple inc. SGX nifty is trading on a positive note up by 1 percent indicating a positive session before the markets close for the Diwali Holidays. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a marginally positive note with respect to the dollar. US dollar index has appreciated yesterday. Euro and Pound have depreciated with respect to the dollar, and are currently trading at 1.2724 and 1.6124 respectively. Economic data that is to be released from European union and Germany would play in major factor in the international currency markets, as speculation about further stimulus from the ECB has been driving that markets since yesterday. Any change from expectation towards the brighter side could change the trend in the European currency. From the US have the CPI number to be watched.

Though broader weather related updates remained same in the commodity we saw strong gains yesterday probably led by a technical pullback as also said yesterday after the commodity moved to 11 month lows in the earlier session yesterday. As we said earlier, Natural Gas weather said it is expecting cool air will sweep through Midwest and Northeast in the coming week driving moderate heating demand however rest of the US will be relatively comfortable with limited demand for heating or cooling for most part of the week. Inventory numbers too suggest additions which are likely to keep the overall trend still down. We maintain selling bias in the commodity.

Commodity Trading Tips

Buy Nickel Mcx Oct above 923 SL 910 Tgt 950

Sell Lead Mcx Oct below 123.50 SL 124.50 Tgt 122.50

Mcx Crude Commodity Market Trading broadly continues to be in a downward spiral however, both the benchmarks look oversold in the near-term as been specified yesterday as well. In other cues, the early morning data over China GDP may act some additional support to industrial commodities including oil. Chinese government data showed GDP rise by 7.3 percentage YoY against markets forecasts of an increase in the range of 7.2 percentages. Note that broader risk over the commodity remains due to continuously falling Brent as issues related to supply increasing from the OPEC stays higher, however positive equities and better Chinese gauge is seen providing some support to the WTI. In we look at that inventory data variable from the US, initial forecast call for moderate decline in product stocks whereas crude stocks might see extended decline. On a cumulative front, we feel it is better to look for only momentary trades in the commodity with bias seen marginally positive as per the WTI is concerned. Hence, we look for small dips to buy the commodity with strict stoploss.Crude oil internationally had a decently volatile session last day as the commodity, especially the US WTI recorded moderate gains during the larger part of Asian and European session, fell in the US trading hours before bouncing back from lows to close tad lower around the $81.90 per barrel mark for December expiry.

Global Market View: In today’s morning trade most of the Asian equity markets are trading on a mixed to positive note tracking the positive close of the US share markets and buoy by the GDP information from China that has been released this morning. Euro and Pound have appreciated marginally with respect to the dollar, and are currently trading at 1.2801 and 1.6161 respectively.

Major economic data for today; China GDP that came in positive, and in the evening we have the home sales data from the US markets, which could continue to support the market momentum.

Natural gas Commodity Trading weather is exp forecasting cool air will sweep through Midwest and Northeast in the coming week driving moderate heating demand however rest of the US will be relatively comfortable with limited demand for heating or cooling for most part of the week. if we look into updates from US CPC, most part of the country might see largely higher than normal temperature cutting down the demand for cooling and thus further pushing prices lower. However, technically as prices move to oversold territory, we advice selling only on pullbacks today. Natural gas for November expiry at NYMEX recorded good slump last day with the commodity taking cues over extended normalization in temperatures in most part of the US.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Copper Nov Mcx below 408.50 SL 411.50 Tgt 404.50

Buy Nickel Oct Mcx above 920 SL 908 Tgt 945

Mcx Gold commodity trading saw subdued market yesterday while we expect a soft session in today’s session as well. Rather than talking about individual performance, we feel we would better talk about group where possibly gold may continue to outperform silver on the positive side. As per the day’s view is concerned, $1250 maintains as a key a key resistance. In case the commodity is unable to mark any positive move above $1250, probably the preceding bearish trend may continue in the next week too. We have a ranged view in gold today. US housing data and mainly UoM consumer confidence data would be watched closely for Gold commodity today evening. Gold was little changed yesterday after marking decent gains the previous day, as traders awaited fresh triggers on economic or currency side. Comex Gold Dec closed lower by 0.3percentage to $1241 an ounce while traded in a bend $1235 to $1245 for the day. MCX Gold for Dec contract however advanced 0.7percentage to Rs 27450 per 10 Gms as we also adjusted with the changes on Wednesday when domestic markets were shut.

Global Markets continued to reel under pressure with high volatility across the globe. Asian markets are all trading deep in the red today. S&P 500 closed flat after a volatile session recouping most of the losses from early trade. SGX Nifty is trading on a positive note up by 50.00 points indicating a marginally positive opening for today’s session. US Dollar index had a subdued session yesterday as compared to the last few days and is currently trading at 84.93. Euro and Pound are trading at 1.2803 and 1.6086 respectively, appreciating marginally in yesterday’s session.

We maintain a near similar outlook as with the case with gold though feel modest set of bearishness could be seen supported by negative trend in the industrial metals complex. So, finally we could either sell silver today or recommend a ratio trade where in gold should be a buy. We have the Indian rupee which has appreciated a tad this morning so possibly losses may be more in the local market. Silver too traded in a ranged manner wherein the commodity finally shut shop lower by 0.15percentage to $17.44. MCX Silver Dec on the other side added 0.3percentage yesterday adjusting with movement in Rupee and International markets on Wednesday

Crude commodity trading stocks as reported by the DoE rose by 8.92 million barrels to 370.6 million for the week ended Oct 10, as imports increased where oil output in the US continued to rise. US refinery utilization rate fell by 1.2percentage to 88.1percentage marking a further lower performance for the overall inventory and one of the major reasons behind good rise in crude stocks. In products, gasoline stocks tumbled 4 million barrels with consumption of the motor fuel rising by 1percentage to 8.78 MBPD during the past four weeks, probably prompted by largely lower prices for US gasoline. Distillate stocks too fell however largely the inventory numbers continued to portray negativism. However, when US inventory data came so much negative one of the major reasons behind yesterday’s advance could be linked to strong gains in Dec month Brent and also prices moving lower to sharply lower to oversold phase. Note that overall trend has been straight bearish especially the OPEC countries are still held off from making any supply cut. Overall our bearish stance would remain wherein on a technical aspect; we are revising our medium-term targets from $83 to $77. On that regard, yesterday’s recovery in the prices is good to take fresh short positions. This morning, oil is seen trading at $83.09 up by 0.48percentage wherein we recommend selling from higher levels.

Global Markets continued to reel under pressure in highly volatile sessions across the globe. Asian markets are all trading deep in the red in today’s session. S&P 500 closed flat after a volatile session recouping most of the losses from early trade. SGX Nifty is trading on a positive note up by 50.00 points indicating a marginally positive opening for today’s session. US Dollar index had a subdued session yesterday as compared to the last few days and is currently trading at 84.93. Euro and Pound are trading at 1.2803 and 1.6086 respectively, appreciating marginally in yesterday’s session.

Economic data: No major economic data to be released today. Housing data from the US markets in the evening are expected to improve, and if they do could support the markets in the evening session.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 38650 SL 39050 Tgt 39350

Sell Copper Mcx Nov below 410.50 SL 413 Tgt 405

Mcx Crude commodity market Trading (WTI) is extending its fall today morning with the commodity sliding to its weakest in over 2 years as expectations rise over likely disappointing inventory report from the US whereas global glut has already pushed major oil benchmarks into bear market. Oil futures were lower over 1percentage currently as news reports showed US crude stockpiles jumped 10.2 million barrels last week as per data from the American Petroleum Institute. They are expected to increase by 2.45 million barrels last week as per Bloomberg survey after last week’s increase of around 5.02 million barrel. Looking at the API data though, traders should be ready for disappointment wherein we feel refinery utilization too continuing to decline in the US amidst schedule maintenance period for refiners between September and October. Overall, looking at the equity performance, poor economic data while higher supply number coming in from API would continue to weigh on the commodity. We suggest selling from higher levels for the day.

Global Market View weakness in the Global financial markets in the last few days continued to affect the Asian bourses with all of them trading deep in the red in today’s session. S&P 500 closed at 1862.49 down by 0.80percentage yesterday after disappointing US retail sales, and wholesale pricing data added to growth concerns. SGX Nifty is trading on a negative note down by 75.00 points indicating a negative opening for today’s session. Dollar index has plummeted after the US data. US Dollar index has dropped from a level of 85.76, and is currently trading at 84.80. Euro and Pound jumped heavily, currently trading at 1.2832 and 1.5993 respectively. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a marginally positive note with respect to the dollar.

Economic data: Major data to be watched out for the day.CPI data from the European Union, where the month on month increase of 0.3percentage is expected by markets, and CPI YoY and CPI core are expected to remain unchanged at 0.3 and 0.7 percent respectively

Mcx Natural gas commodity for November expiry at NYMEX advanced around 1.5percentage on Tuesday tracking changes in weather forecast which suggested probability on some cooler weather in US East. However we maintained a ranged view as broader count on the commodity stayed bearish whereas we were cautious over frequent changes in weather. As of latest cues, temperatures are seen to be normal or higher across most of the country from Oct 25 to Oct 29, replacing below-average temperatures along the East Coast, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC. Additionally, inventory data might show additions of around 91 BCF, lower than prior week though marking continuous increase for over 6 months cumulatively continuing with the bearish bias. We maintain sell in NG today Natural gas for November expiry at NYMEX fell 0.4 percentage yesterday following updated climate forecast which showed largely warmer weather in most part of the US. NYG NYMEX prices fell 0.4percentage yesterday to $3.80 per MMBTU wherein we saw good drop in Tuesday as well.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Crude Mcx Oct below 5020 SL 5080 Tgt 4900

Sell Natural gas Mcx Oct below 233.50 SL 236.50 Tgt 228.50

Mcx Gold commodity trading this morning once again Gold is trading higher to $1234.50, up by 0.35percentage wherein we feel lower USDX and call that US Fed may delay raising rates amidst slowing global growth is helping Bullion. Nevertheless, as also said yesterday if we look at the demand side, no major positivity is noticed as investment demand is just callously declining. Today, we have to seek guidance of USD especially when no major economic data are expected. At this moment especially when the safe-haven euphoria is pushing precious metals higher, Euro too trading higher and we suggesting a sell on bullion could go wrong. However, we may relate to weak economic cues from UK and EU today which might once again turn negative and indirectly put pressure on Euro and later on Gold. On the whole we may see a mixed trend today so recommend making only intraday trades. Technically $1244 would be a crucial point to watch and should be kept as SL in short positions. Gold commodity traded in a ranged manner after opening with strong gap-up yesterday.Comex Gold at electronic session finished higher by 0.7percentage to $1230 however, the same was lower than its opening rate at $1238 an ounce. Gold active Dec contract at MCX closed little changed with prices standing at 27111 per 10 Grams, wherein probably rupee movement capped gains locally

Global Market View Today morning, all the Asian markets are trading on a mixed to positive note despite the sharp selloff in the US markets overnight. S&P 500 closed at 1874.74 down by 1.65percentage as markets continue to reel under the uncertainty about the Global growth prospects. SGX Nifty is trading on a negative note down by 20.00 points after the spectacular bounce back from yesterday’s low. Dollar index has continued to trade lower yesterday against most of its trading partners. US dollar index was currently trading at 85.29, bouncing back from a earlier low of 85.15. Euro and Pound on the other side added to 1.2726 and 1.6074 respectively.

Today’s Economic Data: UK- CPI & PPI, Germany: ZEW survey numbers and from the US NFIB small business optimism. Precisely, for the past three to four sessions, especially when the USD index has declined a tad most of the assets have been moving in a ranged manner

Mcx Silver commodity trading market also hold a similar view as other than broader cues over USDX, equities sliding and cues from the Fed, there are no major changes seen in very short-term. We maintain selling bias in the commodity while we believe, as our view in base metals too stay heterogeneous to bearish, probably once again silver would underperform gold and thus whitish metal would be seen as better bet on the selling side today. Silver is standing on similar lines s in case with gold wherein commodity closed higher by 0.25percentage yesterday, lower from its intraday highs. Silver locally at MCX though finished weaker by 0.45percentage to Rs 38335 per 10 Kg, thanks to the Rupee affect

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Mcx Silver Dec below 38560 SL 38820 Tgt 37950

Sell Mcx Gold Dec below 27030 SL 27120 Tgt 26850

Mcx Crude commodity market Trading  need not to talk much as broader problems over global economic concern and supply side easing continuing in the middle-east is reflecting on the black liquid which is down over a percent both at the Brent and the WTI. As per the developments on Friday evening, Iran had followed Saudi Arabia wherein it is planning to offer discount on Iranian Light by 82 cents a barrel as compared to the average of Oman and Dubai further casting a negative shadow over the commodity. As prices dwindle, discounts and cuts in OSP’s is just another meter which suggests that market is not in a good condition and has a chance to move into further un chartered territories in medium-term. Traders and Inventors should be watching how actually other members of the group like Kuwait and Iraq act over the same, as officially they are supposed to release their prices estimates in the coming week.

In other developments last week, crude inventories for week ended October 3rd jumped by 5 million barrels, higher than markets forecasts whereas gasoline and distillate stocks too rose, with fall in refinery utilization rate and lower demand putting pressure on product stocks as well. Gasoline inventory advanced 1.18 million barrels while distillate stocks increased 439,000 barrels further affecting prices negatively. While we have a weekly sell recommendation, though feel that commodity remains highly oversold and thus we recommend only momentary trades in the oil today with negative bias

Global Market View on Monday morning, all Asian equity indices are trading on a negative note tracking the continued fall of the US markets. S&P 500 closed at 1906.13 down by more than 1 percent last Friday as markets continue to reel under the uncertainty about the Global growth prospects. Dollar index has shown some weakness in today’s trade against the Japanese Yen which has been appreciating as investors return to respect its haven status in times of uncertainty. US dollar index is currently trading at 85.45. Into major cues today morning, Chinese trade data surprised on the positive side supporting some gains in the base metals segment, notwithstanding the weaker equities whereas crude oil too slumped heavily though Bullion gained.

Economic Data: No major economic data from US and EU today, India CPI and Export/Import data due.

We had maintained overall bearish bias in the commodity lately where moderately better stocks report too could not support the commodity from falling in past week. As per news report NaturalGas Weather.com said cool blasts coupled with showers and thunderstorms will push temperatures across the central US and Northeast this weekend to below average however nothing too excessive. At the same time, Southern and Western parts of the country will remain very warm thus keeping overall demand for the commodity down. We continue with our negative bias in the commodity for today.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver mcx Dec below 39000 SL 39350 TP 38600

Sell Nickel mcx Oct below 1013 SL 1025 TP 993

Mcx Crude oil commodity market trading recorded another day of huge drop as Brent and the WTI, both tumbled while both of them officially moving into bear territory as compared to their 2014 highs. As of yesterday’s update, OPEC basket for crude oil slipped to near $88, the agency’s officials notified putting further pressure on the global oil markets which have already been flooded with easing supplies and lower demand. WTI touched a low near $84 per barrel yesterday though managed good pullback in last few hours and closed down. The IMF’s earlier statement which showed, the world economy would expand at a slower pace of 3.8percentage in 2015 as compared to earlier forecast of a growth near 4percentage in July weight markets sentiment with continued weaker EU and Chinese data variables fueling further concerns. Equities across the globe fell last day also adding to the downside pressure on the oil prices globally.

As of today morning trade, we are seeing fresh pressure escalating over both WTI and Brent which are down by 1.8percentage and 1.75percentage respectively and that should push our markets fairly lower by around 1percentage at the time of opening (adjusting with Rupee and yesterday’s closing). Though direction for oil stays down, daily RSI has moved to near 16 for the WTI, so there should be a pullback sooner than later. We recommend fresh sell only on pullback or better that traders can take bets in other non-agri commodities today rather than target crude oil.

Global Market View as of Friday morning, all Asian markets are trading on a negative note tracking the huge and surprising fall in US equity markets overnight. S&P 500 closed at 1928.00 down by more than 2percentage as markets feel uncertain about the Global growth prospects, and this in turn could be having a negative effect on the companies or corporate earnings. Dollar index has recouped some of the losses from the last two days wherein it touched a low of 85.00 while is currently trading at 85.50. Most of the global currencies earlier appreciated with respect to the dollar with majors being Euro and Pound which advanced to 1.2700 and 1.6122 yesterday, though are marginally down from those highs. There is no major economic data to be released in today’s session so probably movement might remain constrained in most non-agri commodities locally and globally.

We maintain bearish view in the commodity on account of continued weather related cues in the US and largely increasing supplies in the country. As per EIA report, stocks increased by 105 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 3, compared with an expected increase of around 108 BCF. However still its was way higher than 5 year average injection during this time of the year around 84 BCF, and inflicts price direction. As said yesterday, MDA said temperatures in the East will range from seasonal to about 1 degree below normal from Oct 18 through Oct 22 against earlier forecast for a shot of cold air sweeping the Midwest during the period. We hold selling bias in the commodity for today.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sel l Silver Mcx Dec below 38560 SL 38860 Tgt 37950

Sell Natural Gas Mcx Oct below 233 SL 236 Tgt 227

Mcx Gold Commodity market Trading fell as of yesterday’s closing, we have seen sharp movement in international markets as it surged in late night trade tracking huge slump in US Dollar after the release of FOMC Meeting minutes. Spot Gold jumped heavily late night IST and its repercussions are being reflected on Comex prices today which are standing with a gain of 1.6percentage to $1225 per ounce mark. However, note that other than FED related cues which we were anticipating to drive good volatility in the commodity, all other factors still call for bearish sentiment to continue in near-term. On that note, we are daring to maintain our bearish bias in the commodity however advice traders to only look for momentum trades. At the domestic market gold may see a gap wherein those initiating Shorts are advised to maintain strict SL above 27000 at MCX Dec contract. Gold Dec prices at Comex moved in-line with our view yesterday with the commodity largely traded in a ranged manner with negative bias. Comex Gold active contract slipped 0.5percentage to $1206 r ounce whereas at MCX Gold Dec gained 0.15percentage to Rs 26880 per 10 Gms.

Global Market View: Today’s morning session, all the Asian markets are trading on a positive note tracking the spectacular bounce of the US markets. S&P 500 closed at 1968.59 up by 1.75 following the FED minutes from the September meetings which were released last night. From reading between the lines, one can now assume that the speculation about an early rate hike from the US would recede in the near term. SGX Nifty is trading on a positive note up by 40.00 points in early trade this morning, indicating a pull back from the recent declines. Dollar index has declined after the Fed minutes last night and is currently trading at 85.30. Most of the global currencies have appreciated with respect to the dollar. Euro is trading on a positive note to the dollar in the morning session at 1.2728 appreciating by 100 pips in the international market, and Pound too is currently trading on an appreciating note at 1.6169.

Economic data: Germany: Trade balance, Current account balance, UK: BOE rate decision, US: Jobless claims and the wholesale inventories. Likewise the case with gold, silver too is trading higher today with gains of over 2.25percentage at Comex to $17.45 per ounce.

Bullion rose as Fed officials expressed concern that US economy may be at risk from a global slowdown. For today is concerned, we may see some a bit of moderate positivism extending though overall trend has not changed still. For today we suggest making only momentary trades. We also expect that in intraday, once again good volatility during the US session on bullion as the jobless numbers are likely to rise. Onto the Ratio side, we advised Gold/Silver Ratio buying wherein traders might have made modest profit as per closing. Nevertheless, those who carried forward could have seen their gains reversing down as we are seeing the opposite forces playing in against our view that silver would underperform gold. We advice traders holding the ratio to maintain stop loss with reduced risk exposure. Fresh positions should be avoided as market lack clarity at this point Silver followed similar path as gold with the commodity though it saw good underperformance as equated to gold, as also been our view yesterday. Silver comex Dec contract slumped 1percentage to $17.06 per ounce while MCX silverwork same month’s expiry skid 0.3percentage to Rs 38220 per Kg.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 39150 SL 39750 Tgt 38500

Sell Natural gas Mcx Oct below 240 SL 243 Tgt 235

Crude commodity market Trading as per major global update, IMF yesterday said economic growth in the US which was aiding a helping hand to the global economy as other major economies still remained under doldrums was getting weaker as equated to IMF’s own forecast a couple of month back. It added, some financial markets may be overheating backed by sustained period of near-zero rates which pushed the major equity markets globally down with the US lading around 1.5percentage yesterday. The agency, trimmed its global growth forecast to 3.3percentage for 2013 as compared to 3.4percentage earlier whereas reduced the next years forecast too. In other commodity related developments which further weighed oil were expectations over increase in crude inventories with continued drop in refinery utilization rate. As per Bloomberg survey, crude stocks likely increased by 2 million barrels last week. Though moderate increase was anticipated in terms of products side, overall bias continues to be weaker. If we look at the API stocks report released today morning (IST); news repts showed huge build in crude inventories by 5.1 million barrels adding to negative pressure on the commodity. There are no major data points to be watched on the economic side today though the late night FOMC minutes for Sept 16-17 meeting might create good volatility in commodities and equities alike. On crude, weaker equities and largely stable to negative expectations from inventory report would continue to push the commodity lower. With the EIA too in its STEO report cutting price and demand forecast for the commodity in medium-term, we feel overall trade would continue to be lower.

Global Market View: In today’s morning session, Asian markets are trading on a negative note tracking the negative US markets. S&P 500 closed at 1935.10 down by 1.51 percent as markets are feeling jittery about the earning season that is to begin this week while IMF’s global economic growth forecasts too hurting equities. SGX Nifty is trading on a negative note down by 28.00 points in early trade this morning, indicating a continuing weakness in today’s session as well Dollar index has declined after weeks of appreciation as markets feel nervous about the results season, and is currently trading at 85.79. Euro is trading on a marginally positive note to the dollar in the morning session at 1.2634, and Pound too is currently trading on an appreciating note at 1.6064.

Economic data: No major data except by the FOMC’s meeting minute is scheduled.

We had maintained bearish bias in the commodity on expectations that warmer to largely normalized temperatures were seen in much of US Western and North-Central region which might continue to keep demand for the commodity subdued in coming days As per Bloomberg news, WSI Corp earlier said temperatures would be mostly normal or higher than usual in the lower 48 states from Oct. 11 through Oct. 15. On additional negative note, EIA in its STEO said, Households relying on NG will see heating costs drop 4.6percentage to $649 as compared to previous winter. Continued higher supplies are expected to keep a lid over the commodity in coming winter. We hold moderate selling bias in the commodity today. Natural gas prices are taking us on a ride with the commodity witnessing wide fluctuations in intraday movement with or without the same developments over weather. After a big over 3.5percentage drop in NG on Monday, we saw November expiry contract advanced 1.5percentage to $3.96 per MMBTU whereas in MCX NG added 1percentage to Rs 243.5 mark.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Gold Mcx Dec below 26860 SL 26960 Tgt 26650

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 38410 SL 38800 Tgt 37850