Category Archives: Future & Option

Commodity Market Outlook 10 Sep’2012 for Metals, Chana, Oil & Natural Gas Trading

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GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31814-32016.

Gold dropped on profit booking after hitting all time high as tepid U.S. jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing

Growing hope for monetary stimulus in Europe and the United States, investors boosted holdings of bullion

Gold prices had roared to record highs on the back of the Fed’s past accommodative measures.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 63546-64326.

Silver still looking firm as last week’s US jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing by FED

Bullion outperformed the euro, which hit four-month highs against the dollar, and the broader market.

U.S. jobs growth slowed sharply in August, setting the stage for the Fed to pump additional money

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56833, with intraday support seen at 63546 and resistance at 64326.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5298-5332.

Crude rose after disappointing U.S. August jobs report weakened dollar and bolstered expectations for stimulus

The possibility that strategic oil reserves may be released by the United States hemmed in oil prices

U.S. regulators said 36.35 percent of daily oil production in U.S.-regulated areas of Gulf of Mexico remained shut

Crude is holding with a support at 5298 and resistance will be likely at 5332.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 443.6-452.6.

Copper rose driven by stimulus hopes in US and China’s approval of a multibillion dollar infrastructure program

Gains were fueled on investor bets of a healthier year-end demand outlook from China and another round of bond buybacks

Additional support came from the currency market, where the euro climbed on the prospects of more bond buying

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215950mt that is up by 2725mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 107.07-109.07.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as market was boosted by many positive reports.

US Department of Labor announced seasonally adjusted US nonfarm employment payrolls were lower than expected

Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 3126 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 942200mt that is down by  -3050mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 904.4-916.

Nickel settled flat up by 0.08% at 910 tracking Friday’s rally in LME nickel after release of nonfarm data from US

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

The US dollar fell by over 1% after the data release, and base metal prices rallied across the board

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121080mt that is down by -72mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 146.57-149.97.

Natural gas ended lower as milder autumn weather was expected to curb any late-season demand for cooling

Shut-in gas from Hurricane Isaac has also been returning to service over the past few days

Shut-in offshore Gulf of Mexico production from Isaac curbed inventory build and should do same to next injection

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 146.57 and resistance will be likely at 149.97.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 110.35-111.85.

Aluminium settled 0.54% up boosted by hopes for economic stimulus in the world’s leading economies

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

Aluminium weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 11777 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4871425mt that is up by 5025mt.

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1350.1-1410.3.

Menthaoil spot is at 1538/-.Spot market is down by Rs.8/-.

Mentha oil ended lower on profit booking after prices gained buoyed by firm trend at the spot market

Higher sowing activities due to the high rates obtained by farmers last year resulted in higher production

Better production prospects have been keeping overall sentiments weak.

CHANA:

Chana trading range for the day is 4802-4894.

Chana settled flat as improved rains boosted hopes of better sowing and aided growth of the kharif pulses.

Farmers completed sowing of kharif pulses on 9.77 million hectares by Aug. 30, down from 10.42 million hectares

NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks dropped by 217 tonnes to 50889 tonnes.

In Delhi spot market, chana fell down by -49.05 rupee to end at 4838.45 rupee per 100 Kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13515-14275.

Jeera gained as thin supplies in the spot market supported buying though rains in Gujarat state limited upside

Indian jeera exports rise by 40 pc in quantity due to Syria unrest

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 106 tonnes to 10519 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera dropped -108.65 rupees to end at 14905 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5523-5943.

Turmeric fell due to a drop in overseas enquiries and a revival in rains that could help improve yield

Prospects of pick-up in sowing in major producing areas amid heavy rainfall also weighed on prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 1 tonnes to 10252 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5582.4 rupees dropped by -6.35 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY CALL:

  • SELL NATURAL GAS MCX SEPT BELOW 147 SL 149.50 TGT 145.50-144.25-142.50.
  • BUY GOLD MCX OCT ABOVE 31950 SL 31870 TGT 31990-32035-32095.
  • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 64100 SL 63880 TGT 64320-64560-64720.
  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 448.50 SL 445 TGT 450.20-452.80-454

Commodities Outlook 07 Sep’2012

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GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31150-31976.

Gold settled flat on profit booking after gaining on news of ECB’s plans for a potentially unlimited bond-buying program

Holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds hit a record high of 72.1 million ounces, or 2,044 tonnes

ECB interest rates at 0.75% versus 0.50% expected and 0.75% prior

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 61196-64002.

Silver gains but dropped from high’s as rupee shown firmness and snapped three-day losing streak boosted by corporate dollar sales

Silver extended gains even as the industrial metal remained firmly in overbought territory measured by RSI.

BOE keeps the interest rate at 0.50% and keeps the asset purchase target at 375B.

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56456, with intraday support seen at 61196 and resistance at 64002.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5250-5482.

Crude oil held on to strong gains after government report showed oil supplies fell significantly last week.

Crude oil inventories fell by 7.4mbls compared to expectations for a decline of 5.3mbls.

Market looked ahead on non-farm payrolls which will allow investors to gauge the strength of the labor market.

Crude is holding with a support at 5250 and resistance will be likely at 5482.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 429.3-441.1.

Copper dropped despite supportive news that the ECB will undertake an aggressive bond-buying program.

Copper paused to digest the news of the ECB’s program as well as the bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold.

Copper also had a muted reaction to U.S. data that showed the claims for jobless benefits fell last week

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 213225mt that is down by -1825mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 104.03-106.83.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as European Central Bank announced to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.75%

ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank would introduce unlimited amounts of short-term debt buying program

ECB pushed new unlimited government bond purchasing plan, while US ADP’s data was much better than forecasts

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 945250mt that is down by -2800mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 883.9-922.

Nickel dropped but downside limited as data from the was better than expectation

Germany was objected to the ECB’s bond purchasing, increasing risks for bond buying.

ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a new bond-buying program dubbed “Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs)”

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121152mt that is up by 1098mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 152.8-162.4.

Natural gas gains as a report from the EIA showed U.S. gas supplies rose less-than-expected last week.

EIA said in its report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended August 31 rose by 28 bcf.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.402 trillion cubic feet as of last week.

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 152.8 and resistance will be likely at 162.4.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 107.8-111.2.

Aluminium dropped as investors confidence cooled after weakening possibility of policy easing by the Fed

Markets expect the US non-farm payrolls will continue to grow mildly since US economic figures came in better than anticipated

ECB interest rates at 0.75% versus 0.50% expected and 0.75% prior.

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4866400mt that is down by  -8225mt.

REF SOYA OIL:

Ref soyaoil trading range for the day is 802.13-813.23.

Ref soyaoil dropped on some profit booking but downside was limited as good demand in spot market due supported prices

Overall demand is expected to pick up which will support the market sentiments in medium term.

Soybean production in 2012 is likely to be more than last year but heavy rainfall in central India remains a concern

At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up by 4.65 rupee to 802.65 rupees 10 kgs.

WHEAT:

Wheat trading range for the day is 1523-1569.

Wheat fell on expectations that the government could release additional wheat from its warehouses to ease shortages

India has decided to make available 1.3 million tonnes of additional wheat for open sale in September and October

Millers can now request supplies amounting to up to 1.3 million tonnes out of a total of 3 million tonnes agreed by ministers

In Delhi wheat prices gained 1.95 rupee to end at 1573.2 rupees per 10 kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13978-14654.

Jeera gained on short covering on hopes of exports may pick up, though higher production concerns limited uptrend.

The total arrivals remain unchanged at 4,000 bags, while demand was seen for around 5,000 bags.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 458 tonnes to 10625 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera gained 53 rupees to end at 15138.7 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5878-6318.

Turmeric gained on rising demand ahead of festive seasons along with lower sowing in the major producing regions.

Reports of stockiest holding onto stocks supported the rates at these levels however.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 484 tonnes to 10253 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5588.75 rupees gained by 116.75 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY ADVICE:

  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 434 SL 432 TGT 436-438
  • BUY SOYABEAN NCDEX OCT ABOVE 4010 SL 3980 TGT 4038-4060
  • CRUDE OIL MCX SEP BELOW 5320 SL 5355 TGT 5295-5270

Commodity Outlook for 05 Sep’2012

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GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31225-31599.

Gold settled higher on weaker US data fuelling expectations the Fed will implement fresh stimulus measures.

Gold seen support as ECB will announce details of measures to help stabilize the region’s sovereign debt markets.

ECB says gold, gold receivables fell EU1 mln in week. Forex reserves fell EU2.1 bln to EU241.9 bln.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 60952-62744.

Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in U.S. contracted for third consecutive month in August

The Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy, leaving the ECB’s meeting on Thursday in focus.

Holdings at is shares silver trust dropped by 28.63 tonnes to 9642.97 tonnes

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5235-5453.

Crude ends lower as weak data adds to economic worries

Oil futures were higher earlier in the session as market sentiment improved after ECB President Mario barrel.

Prices getting support on growing concerns over tightening supplies from the North Sea region & Tropical Storm Leslie.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 427.1-432.7.

Copper dropped as U.S. data added further concern about the state of the global economy

ECB is expected to unveil details of a long-awaited debt-buying scheme to tackle the region’s debt crisis

Market sentiment remained upbeat amid growing speculation Fed was moving closer to stimulate growth in US economy

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 218800mt that is down by  -6475mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 102.4-105.4.

Zinc gained despite of lower than expected PMI from the US ISM exerted pressure on base metal market

China’s demand for refined zinc weakened in August from July diluting hopes for a fourth-quarter rise in consumption.

Moody’s adjustment and warning added pressure on the EBC’s debt purchase plan.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 949550mt that is down by  -1525mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 886.7-915.

Nickel dropped as as lower-than-expected PMI from the US Institution of Supply and Management weighed on market.

Market is waiting for decisions and detailed rules of debt purchase plan from Draghi at the european central bank meeting

Commodities had limited downside room, though, as downbeat data was twined with expectations for easing policies.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 119724mt that is down by  -60mt.

 NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 152.17-165.77.

Natural gas rallied +3.24% nearly four weeks high as renewed tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

US National hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Leslie could strengthen into a hurricane.

Despite of gains, prices were expected to remain under pressure amid ongoing concerns over inventory levels.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 105.18-109.38.

Aluminium gained as downbeat data was twined with expectations for easing policies.

Investors expected the ECB would introduce the long-awaited bond buying program at its meet on Thursday

Moody’s adjustment and warning added pressure on the EBC’s debt purchase plan.

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4878475mt that is down by -6475mt.

Market Outlook – Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data for 31 August’2012

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As per market outlook, the BSE Index put up the lid at 17542 up 51 points or +0.29% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5315 up 27 points or +0.52% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.4% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.3% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 716 against declines of 706 on the NSE.

The market traded volatile in yesterday’s ttrade and closed with moderate gains.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Dlf, Idfc, Hindalco and Jp Assosiate.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Tata Steel, Gail, Jindal Steel and Bpcl.

FII Derivative Data:


  • FII sold 2041 Contracts of Index Future, worth 6 cores with net OI decreasing by 19355 contracts.
  • Since Nifty Future was down by 50 points and OI has decreased by 19355, FII have booked profit in longs, as the total OI is down by 19K and sell figure is just 6 cores meaning they sold longs and have shorted partially.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5288 after making the low of 5283, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5325 got broken on Nifty. Ahead of expiry breaking of 5300 is a danger for bulls as expiry pressure can bring a swift fall and gap filling till 5216 can take place.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5309 and 5329 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5266 and 5243 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5329 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 1.6 cores with an unwinding  of 41 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.53 lakhs so 36 lakhs  got roll overed Longs are getting roll overed to next series.
  • Whole F&O turnover was 1.70 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.53 lakh, Breadth was terrible and stocks were falling like nine pins.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 14.6 lakhs with total OI now standing at 49 lakhs. 5300 CE has premium of Rs 15 and Call writers have added 14.6 lakhs OI, so 5300 will be immediate resistance for market tomorrow.
  • 5300 PE sheded 19 lakh in OI and having the OI at 76 lakhs put writers ran for cover as Nifty broke and closed below 5300.5200 PE is next support at per Option table as we have gap from 5266-5219 so do not be surprised if we see 5219 tomorrow. As of now 5200 is strong base from market. FII have sold 771 cores in Options suggesting selling in Put options they were holding as hedge, Are we near reversal?
  • FII bought 143 cores and DII sold239 cores in cash segment. INR closed at 55.67. FII were again sellers of 579 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is @ 5299, Trend Changer is @ 5327,  Nifty were consolidating near 5327-5332 range before falling and we got early indication of fall as we traded 2 hours below 5327. For tomorrow this level will be tough resistance to crack. (Beyond this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Beneath this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5335
  • 20 DMA at 5333
  • 50 DMA at 5256
  • 200 DMA at 5120
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 38 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 41. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5333 and above the level marks the track point at 5355 later zipper levels at 5400 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5288 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5266 later dipping levels near 5244 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 30 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5333 sl 5311 Tgt 5355-5400 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5288 sl 5311 Tgt 5266-5244.

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 28 August’2012

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The Bse Index put down the lid at 17679 down 104 points or -0.59% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5350 down 36 points or -0.68% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.8% and BSE Small cap index was down 1% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 418 against declines of 1021 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate losses today with realty, banking and capital goods being the biggest losers.

Top Nse India Gainers were: M7M, Power Grid, Cairn and Hindunilvr.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Jindal Stee, Pnb, Jp Assosiate and Idfc.

Market Signs:

  • HCL Infosystems Q4 cons net loss at Rs.2 cr Vs profit of Rs.23 cr (QoQ).
  • S Mobility Q1 cons net loss at Rs.5.2 cr Vs loss of Rs.20 cr (QoQ); cons net sales at Rs.511.3 cr Vs Rs.553.3 cr (QoQ).
  • Jain Irrigation board will meet today to approve issue of securities.
  • Trent has issued 5.26 lakh shares to Tata Sons subsidiaries at Rs 980/share on preference basis.
  • Welspun Corp has raised Rs 200 cr via NCD (non convertible debentures) issue.
  • The board members of Bajaj FinServ will meet to consider the rights issue on August 29.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 1302 cr order from Petroleum Development Oman.
  • MoS, Oil says cannot hike diesel price due to inflation.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 749 cr order from ONGC for 4 Wellhead platforms.
  • L&T signs share sale and purchase agreement with Japan’s Toshiba Machine Co to sell its entire stake in L&T Plastics Machinery Ltd.
  • Supreme Court has sought pollution board’s report on Sterlite’s Tuticorin Plant by September-end.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 13648 Contracts of Index Future, worth 384 cores with net OI increasing by 13010 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 40 points and OI has increased by 13010, FII are booking profits in longs. No shorts have been created as per data analyzed.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5350 after making the low of 5346 near to our 1 tgt of 5341, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they were unable to close nifty above 5400, We have discussed the resistance at 5401 and Nifty made a high of 5399 today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5366 and 5401 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5341 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5313 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.3 cores with an unwinding of 18 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 60 lakhs so 18 lakhs got roll overed and 7 lakh extra addition.
  • Total Future & Option turnover was 1.19 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 1.89  lakh,Cash volumes were very dismissal at 5051 now this signify the fall was in technical in nature no major selling has happened today. So tomorrow we can see a reverse up move if 5341 is not broken. In past, whenever Nifty has formed a low near the support with falling volumes (as compared to previous sessions) we observed minor bottom reversal pattern. Today’s decline with falling volume (compared to Friday) could be a sign of possible reversal.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.7 lakhs with total OI now standing at 29 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 10 lakhs and total OI stands at 66 lakhs so 5400 CE writers, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 1.05 core lakhs,so 5400 is the ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE added 3.2 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.08 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 second day running, 5400 PE saw an huge unwinding, as Expiry is 3 trading session away. Looking at huge unwinding i accept nifty to come near 5400 tomorrow.
  • FII bought 200 cores and DII sold 500 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.7. FII has bought 8046 Cr in cash market in August series.FII sold 551 of stock futures also
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5347, Trend Changer at 5326 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5397
  • 20 DMA at 5313
  • 50 DMA at 5243
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 40 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 56. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5333 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5311 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 28 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5377 sl 5355 Tgt 5399-5422 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5333 sl 5355 Tgt 5311-5288.

Nifty Outlook & FII Data – 22 August’2012

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The Bse Index Closes on Yesterday at 17885 up 194 Points or +1.10% and the Nifty fasten store at 5421 up 54 points from the previous close or +1.02%. The CNX Midcap index was up 0.3% while the BSE Small cap index gains 0.5% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 798 against declines of 634 on the NSE.

Nifty managed to cross its resistance of 5400 and give a closing above it, for the first time since March 16. Banks, IT, cements and power stocks saw strong buying interest.

Nse India Top Gainers in Yesterday’s Trade: Sterlite Industries, Dlf and Sesa Goa.

Nse India Top Losers in Yesterday’s Trade: Bharathi Airtel, Cairn India and Pnb.

Stock Cipher:

  • Wockhardt  has got USFDA nod for generic version of Comtan.
  • Reliance Power would be worst hit if coal block are re-allocated; Tata Power would be least affected by the same.
  • L&T Construction Division bags orders over Rs 2,044 crore since July 1.
  • Tata Steel to redeem convertible alternative reference securities on September 5.
  • Supreme Court directs government, AAI to file affidavits on DIAL ADF levy.
  • Delhi HC issues notice to SEBI on plea to ban algorithm trading.
  • Bayer’s appeal at Intellectual Property Appellate Board postponed to 1st week of September.

FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 12968 Contracts of Nifty, worth 264 cores with net OI increasing by 12172 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 60 points and OI has increased by 12172, FII have created fresh longs into Index futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5421 highest level closing in past 5 months, Bulls are going step by step closing above 5350 and than 5400. Now we need a weekly closing above 5400 to make sure this is not a whipsaw.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5446 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely, Support now exists at 5400 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5255 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.63 cores with an addition  of 7.78 Lakh in OI, longs were added by Retailers and HNI and shorts were covered as 5400 NS was Sl for many traders .I expect small range tomorrow probably till 5447 on higher end and 5400 on lower end  with stock specific action looking at OI figure.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.02 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.0 lakh; This is point of concern on small down days we see a turnover of 1.20 lakhs and down day turnover near 1 lakh cr. Also cash volume trades and turnover are less than 10% tommrow which means rally was only backed by short covering not based on delivery based buying.
  • 5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 8 lakhs with total OI now standing at 32 lakhs, Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 1.41  lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs no major unwinding seen,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 98 lakhs, with fresh addition of 5 lakhs in OI.
  • 5300 PE added 15 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.06 cr which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also added 25 Lakh in OI so now traders are eyeing 5400 PE as next base for Nifty. With such a huge addition i expect Nifty to once touch 5400 tomorrow.
  • FII bought 141 cores and DII sold 141 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.71
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5400, Trend Changer at 5304 NIFTY (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5376
  • 20 DMA at 5255
  • 50 DMA at 5219
  • 200 DMA at 5116
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 83
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 68. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zooper levels at 5488 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5400 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5477 later dipping levels near 5355 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 22 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5444 Sl 5422 Tgt 5466-5488 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5400 Sl 5422 Tgt 5377-5355.

Nifty out Look & FII Data – 21 August’2012

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The Bse Index Closes on Friday at 17691 up 34 Points or +0.19% and the Nifty fasten store at 5366, up 3 points from the previous close or +0.06%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.1% while the BSE Small cap index gains 0.02% in Fridays Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 654 against declines of 797 on the NSE.

The markets lost all the gains on Friday morning trade and closed flat. FMCG, IT, auto and consumer durables were the biggest gainers in Friday’s session while realty, power and metal tried to pull the indices down.

Nse India Top Gainers in Friday’s Trade: Tata Motors, Hul, Itc and Infosyis.

Nse India Top Losers in Friday’s Trade: Jindal Steel, Tata Power, Reliance Infra and Dlf.

Stock Cipher:

  • UltraTech and Lupin will be replacing SAIL and Sterlite in Nifty from Sept 28, 2012.
  • Cairn India has acquired 60% in offshore Block 1 in South Africa.
  • Dhanlaxmi bank is planning to cut stake in Destimoney from 13% to 5%.
  • Tata Global arm has bought the remaining 49% in Russian SuntyCo Holding.
  • US firm Santarus has sued Dr Reddy. It has accused Dr Reddy for infringing its patents on heartburn drug Zegerid.
  • Rupee at close: Rupee ends at 55.73 to the dollar vs 55.76 on Thursday.

 FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 12876 Contracts of NF, worth 279 cores with net OI increasing by 8208 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 0.35 points and OI has increased by 8208, FII have used the dip to buy into Index futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5366 after making a high of 5400; Bulls were unable to close nifty above 5380 resistance zone which shows the supply pressure coming at higher levels.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5390 and 5400 (as  its swing high in Oct 2011) which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5328 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5244 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.56 cores with an unwinding  of 2.3 Lakh in OI, longs were liquidated by Retailers and HNI.As OI figure saw an unwinding of 1.19 lakhs i expect some good move tomorrow this is what we discussed on Thursday and on Friday we had a range of 72 points
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.25 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.4  lakh lowest in 2012.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.79  lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs ,5400 CE saw an  addition  of 1.85  lakhs and total OI stands at 67 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 93 lakhs,  , 5000-5600 CE saw an addition of 2.6 lakhs in OI.
  • On Put side 5000 PE saw an unwinding of 1.4 lakhs, strong support of Nifty as total OI at 1.01 core.5000-5500 PE added total of 7 lakhs in OI.5300 PE added 5 lakh in OI and having the OI at 91 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in near term and immediate support in any pullback.5400 PE also added 7.2 Lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of Options yesterday so are they are buying puts to hedge their longs.
  • FII bought 308 cores and DII bought 40 cores in cash segment. FII has sold 161 cores in stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5387, Trend Changer at 5298 NIFTYF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5356
  • 20 DMA at 5244
  • 50 DMA at 5212
  • 200 DMA at 5115
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 72
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 64. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zooper levels at 5444 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5355 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5333 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 21 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5400 Sl 5377 Tgt 5422-5444 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5355 Sl 5377 Tgt 5333-5311.

Overseas Market View – F&O, Market Cues

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  • The US markets ended another session flat in lackluster trade as investors digested a string of mixed economic data and earnings reports. It was a day of extremely anemic volumes. The Dow traded within a 55 point range through the day as bluechips dragged. It was only the Nasdaq that managed to eke out a half percent gain.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% or 7.36 points at 13164.78. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.46% or 13.95 points at 3030.93. Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.11% or 1.6 points at 1405.53.
  • Also better economic data is now raising doubts that the Fed would launch any fresh bond buying programme next month. The CBOE volatility index slid below 15.
  • On economic data front, consumer prices were flat for a second-straight month in July. Meanwhile US homebuilder sentiment rose in August to its highest level in more than five years. New York Fed Reserve empire state index of manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly into negative territory in August for the first time since last October.
  • In key data to watch out for in the US today, weekly jobless claims are expected to rise marginally to 365,000. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to come in at minus 6.5, after a 12.5 decline last month. Also watch out for
  • housing starts data.
  • In the currency space, the dollar firm versus the euro after the US economic data boosted treasury yields and cut expectations of more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.
  • In commodities, crude prices gain with Brent above USD 116 levels, the highest level in more than three months following a sharp drawdown in US crude stockpiles.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Wednesday. In the IT space, Infosys was up 0.56% at USD 41.38, Wipro was up 0.5% at USD 8.05 and Patni was down 1.08% at USD 18.4.
  • In the Telecom space, MTNL was up 0.5% at USD 1.206 and Tata Communication was up 0.12% at USD 8.33. In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 0.49% at USD 34.75 and HDFC Bank was down 0.65% at USD 35.01.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 0.51% at USD 7.95, Dr Reddys was down 0.37% at USD 29.31 and Tata Motors was down 0.91% at USD 20.75.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest mkt range of 5300-5500
  • Total Puts add 5.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls add 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Highest OI buildup seen in 5000 Put & 5500 Call
  • 5000 Put adds 1.3 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put adds 10.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Put adds 5.8 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5200 Put sheds 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 4900 Put sheds 13.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Call adds 4.1 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call sheds 6.95 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Call sheds 4.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 8.3 lakh shares in OI.
  • Stock Futures adds 50.6 cr shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.21 from 1.2
  • India VIX closed at 15.64 down by 2.31%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 14
  • FIIs net buy Rs 289 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts up by 7560
  • FIIs net buy Rs 411 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 46491
  • FIIs net sell Rs 428 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 7153

Market cues:

  • FIIs net buy USD 65 million in cash market on August 13
  • MFs net sell Rs 66 crore in cash market on August 13
  • As per provisional data of August 14, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 258 cr in cash market. FIIs were net buyers of Rs
  • 160 cr in F&O. DIIs were net buyers of Rs 76 cr in cash market.
  • FII sells 323 Contracts of Nifty, worth 21.28 cores with net OI increasing by 7909 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has increased by 7909, FII have started shorting the index futures in small quantity. As FII average traded price comes at a weird number of 13179 which shows they are trading in fewer volumes and mostly doing day trading.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5320 after making a high of 5330 and low of 5294 ,nifty has closed above 5300 but it has formed lower high and lower lows .As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone, cannot be broken in single attempt. Bulls are trying from past 2 days to close Nifty above 5350 but are failing each time suggesting weakness in price and eventual dip till 5260 can come in next 2 days.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5350 and after that 5380  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5286 ,Below 5260 gap filling will start till 5216 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5213 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.43 cores with an addition of 3.7 Lakh in OI, shorts were added by Retailers and HNI.
  • Total Future and Options turnover was 0.93 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.8 lakh.
  • 5400 CE saw an unwinding of 2.5 lakhs and total OI stands at 75 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 85 lakhs, 5300 CE also saw an addition of 1.1 lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs, 4900-5500 CE saw an unwinding of 2 lakhs in OI suggesting weak bears have unwounded the position as Nifty is unable to close below 5300.
  • Lying on Put side 5000 PE saw an addition of 1 lakhs, immediate support of Nifty as total OI at 1.05 core.4900-5500 PE added total of 10 lakhs in OI. 5200 PE added 6 lakhs in OI suggesting market participants are not showing nifty closing below 5200 for coming week.
  • FII bought 83 cores and DII sold 536 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.41 Live INR rate @ FII has sold 634 in stock futures namely in SBI and PSU banks.
  • Nifty Futures Trend deciding level is 5265, Trend Changer at 5266 Nifty Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty Below this levels Bears have superior hand.

Overseas Market View – F&O Cues

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  • The US markets eased off their session lows but still ended in the red, with the S&P 500 snapping a six-day winning streak, amid fears of a global economic slowdown. The CBOE volatility index fell below 14 to its lowest level in almost five years.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.29% or 38.52 points at 13169.43. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.05% or 1.66 points at 3022.52. Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.13% or 1.76 points at 1404.11.
  • In key data to watch out for in the US today, the producer price index for the month of July is expected to edge up 0.2%. And retail sales may see a 0.3% growth in July.
  • In the currency space, the euro holds on to its yesterday gains ahead of the GDP data due from Germany and France.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices retreat to USD 113 levels after touching an intraday high of USD 115 levels yesterday.
  • Indian ADRs ended lower on Monday. In the IT space, Infosys was down 0.93% at USD 41.4, Wipro was down 0.61% at USD 8.1 and Patni was down 0.58% at USD 18.6505.
  • In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 1.52% at USD 34.39 and HDFC Bank was down 0.93% at USD 35.25. In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was down 1.97% at USD 8.42 and MTNL was up 1.33% at USD 1.216.
  • In the other space, Dr Reddys was down 1.57% at USD 29.41, Tata Motors was down 1.09% at USD 20.81 and Sterlite was up 0.5% at USD 8.09.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest market range of 5200-5400
  • Total Puts add 15.4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls shed 3.6 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Highest OI buildup seen in 5000 Put & 5500 Call
  • 5000 Put sheds 1.75 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Call adds 29K shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put adds 8.82 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5200 Put adds 5.25 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 4900 Put adds 4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call sheds 5.95 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Call adds 22K shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 10.4 lakh shares in OI
  • Stock Futures adds 1.7 cr shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.2 from 1.17
  • India VIX closed at 16.01 down by 0.37%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 13
  • FIIs net sell Rs 28 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts up by 22065
  • FIIs net sell Rs 410 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 17193
  • FIIs net sell Rs 442 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 5226

Nifty Outlook – 13 August’2012

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The Bse Index put down the lid at 17557 down 3 points or -0.02% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5320 down 2 points or -0.05% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was down 0.3%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 549 against declines of 878 on the NSE.

It was a passive close to a dull session for the Indian market which adage banks, autos and realty trade under pressure. However, some buying was seen in IT, FMCG and oil & gas stocks in a range bound picture.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Bpcl, Maruti Suzuki, Kotak Bank and Tcs

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sbin, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy and bank of Baroda.

Market Signs:

  1. IFCI Q1 net profit at Rs 93.6 cr  vs Rs 132.1 cr (YoY); revenue at Rs 661 cr vs Rs 602.5 cr (YoY).
  2. GMR Infra Q1 cons net loss at Rs 94.3 cr vs Rs 66.7 cr (YoY); cons revenue at Rs 2,562 cr vs Rs 2089.8 cr (YoY).
  3. Reliance Infra will be seeking approval to raise funds via QIP (Qualified Institutional Placement). The fundraising will not exceed 25% of equity capital.
  4. PSU oil cos seek immediate hike in petrol prices.
  5. Welspun India Q1FY13 Consolidated YoY Net Profit at Rs 37.7 Cr Vs Rs.18.2 Cr.
  6. Reliance Communications seeks shareholders’ approval to increase its authorised share capital to 25 billion rupees.
  7. Credit Suisse downgraded Tata Motors to “underperform” from “neutral” after cutting its volumes forecast.
  8. Sun Pharma Advanced approves rights issue at a price of Rs 67/share.
  9. Bombay Dyeing loses mill land battle in SC; stock slips.
  10. SBI Q1 net profit at Rs 3,751.5 cr Vs Rs 1584 cr (YoY); NII at Rs 11,118.8 cr Vs Rs 9700 cr (YoY).
  11. Sakthi Sugars Q1 net profit at Rs 1.4 cr vs loss of Rs 10.4 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 357 cr vs Rs 354.7 cr (YoY).
  12. Eros International Q1 Cons net profit at Rs 31.4 Cr Vs Rs 29.7 Cr (QoQ).
  13. Sun Pharma Q1 cons net profit at 795.5 cr vs Rs 501 cr (YoY); cons net sales at Rs 2,658 cr vs Rs 1,636 cr (YoY).
  14. Sundram Fasteners Q1 net profit at Rs 31.2 cr vs Rs 34.9 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 570.8 cr vs Rs 510.8 cr (YoY).
  15. Bharat Forge Q1 net profit at Rs 105.2 cr vs Rs 97.4 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 916.2 cr vs Rs 829.3 cr (YoY).
  16. BPCL Q1 net loss at Rs 8837 cr vs loss of Rs 2562 cr (YoY); GRM at USD 2.62/bbl Vs USD 4.20/bbl (QoQ).
  17. ONGC Q1 net profit at Rs 6077.7 cr vs Rs 4095 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 20,084.3 cr vs Rs 16199 cr (YoY).

Last Close at 5320 down -2 points, Last High at 5300 and Last Low at 5294> Weekly High at 5330 and Weekly Low at 5129.

5 DMA at 5320

20 DMA at 5213

50 DMA at 5178

200 DMA at 5111.

5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 70 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 61. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5333 and above the level marks the track point at 5355 later zipper levels at 5377 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 13 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5377 sl 5355 Tgt 5399-5422 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5333 sl 5355 Tgt 5311-5288.