Gold prices are trading in a range and await the major US economic data on US Monthly Jobs. Last month the US Non-Farm payrolls data showed jobs addition of only 74K while as per markets expectations there should be a smooth sailing this week to 180K for the month of January. As per the latest private sector Jobs number from ADP the Jobs number would see improvement though it might disappoint marginally. In any case, Bullion which have a very high weight age based on the movement in the employment situation in the Us are likely to see high volatility around the time the US data is released.
Other cues with regards to the international markets are not having any major impact on bullion as of early Asian trade is concerned. Looking at the overall cues, we are maintaining a ranged view into the commodity with a moderate positive bias. We are suggesting buying in Comex for small targets while have recommended both buying and selling in Indian Gold prices
Global Market Analysis: US markets finished with a positive note yesterday following decent weekly jobs number which helped building expectations of a better monthly Jobs report today. Back in Asia, almost all indices are trading positive except China which resumed trade after a weeklong lunar holiday. On the local currency space, we feel Indian rupee to trade stronger against the USD tracking cues out of the emerging market currencies and also after the weakness in the dollar index which is trading at the 80.87 mark. On the economic data front, we have some from the Euro zone and UK. However markets are likely to focus on the more important Nonfarm payroll numbers from the US. In Bullion, gold moved up yesterday and currently standing at $1262 whereas silver is weak by a same 0.3% rate to $19.90 per ounce. Bullion could see huge volatility after the release of US Jobs numbers and thus advice traders to be cautious. We have bullish bias in gold Comex today
Silver For day trade, similar to gold we could see high volatility into the commodity during the evening hours though we might not see a better performance as equated to yesterday’s trade for silver against gold. For the day we feel the commodity would continue to trade in a broader range as centre stage would be taken by gold amidst the key Jobs number. Despite base metals mostly trading with healthy gains we don’t expect them to have any major impact on the commodity’s performance in Intra-day
SELL GOLD MCX APR BELOW 28600 SL 28670 TGT 28500 {OR} BUY ON DIPS NEAR 28500 SL 28400 TGT 28600
COMMODITY MARKET EVENTS FOR DAY TRADING:
DATE | TIME | Region | Event of the Day | Period | Survey | Prior |
07.02.14 | 12:30 | GE | Trade Balance | Dec | 17.3B | 18.1B |
07.02.14 | 15:00 | UK | Trade Balance | Dec | -£3000 | -£3238 |
07.02.14 | 15:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | Dec | 2.40% | 0.025 |
07.02.14 | 16:30 | GE | Industrial Production SA MoM | Dec | 0.00% | 0.019 |
07.02.14 | 17:30 | IN | GDP Annual Estimate YoY | 1QA | — | — |
07.02.14 | 19:00 | US | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Jan | 180K | 74K |
07.02.14 | 19:00 | US | Change in Private Payrolls | Jan | 190K | 87K |
07.02.14 | 19:00 | US | Change in Manf. Payrolls | Jan | 10K | 9K |
07.02.14 | 19:00 | US | Unemployment Rate | Jan | 6.70% | 0.067 |