Gold commodity Trading market held a ranged trade yesterday wherein this morning too electronic session prices too trade with little movement. Though overall trend still remains down, we understand that the trend is down but the prices trading in oversold territory is probably halting the metal to trade flat while permitting against fresh round of sell off. Also, weaker equities across major economies might have helped gold and silver to trade sideways to marginally positive despite weaker other commodity asset classes. For the day, we hold a cautious bearish outlook on the Gold and recommend selling the commodity from higher levels. EU CPI and US Consumer confidence data would be tracked. Gold Dec prices were largely steady last day as industrial commodities mainly and equities witnessed decent volatility with the Comex yellow metal trading in a small band between $1224 and $1215 per ounce mark before closing higher by 0.3percentage to $1219. Indian MCX Gold for to be active December contract gained modestly better with the help of Rupee and added 0.45percentage to Rs 26915 per 10 Grams
Global Market View: First day of the week is over and as we start new day, Asian equity markets are trading negative following cues from US markets while the South American equity indices have declined the most. From the global FX front, the USD index remained steady, pound sterling; euro and the Japanese Yen too have declined a tad. We do not understand the exact reason for so much of disparity. We talk about commodities, though gold and silver remained steady but unexpectedly oil and the industrial metals moved up. We may possibly look at the US treasury yield which has fallen to 2.4771percentage may have been a reason for some of the commodities to drive higher whereas for the WTI, refinery outages producing gasoline commodity probably aided the extra bit of gains.
Economic data: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.20, down from prior number of 50.50. India credit policy meeting, retail sales from Germany and EU CPI gauge. US S&P Case-Shriller index, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence Index
On a broader perspective, we are holding near similar stand for the commodity as with gold as prices related direction stays same for the two, with gold driving the movement. While we saw modest gains in the two metals yesterday, prices mainly for silver continue to hover in oversold phase. Yesterday too we said, silver has slumped nearly 18percentage in last 11 weeks and trades in oversold phase on weekly scenario. On that note, we are shifting our intraday view towards buying, notwithstanding the subdued or bearish outlook continuing over the short-to-medium-term time frame. Note that, US data on regional PMI and Consumer confidence would be watched other than the EU CPI. In case US data comes very strong, we could see fresh round of weakness building in Bullion complex which is the only risk against our intraday view Silver along with Gold traded in a range manner though performance for December month contract was marginally better to $17.50 per ounce, higher by 0.55percentage Silver MCX for same months expiry locally gained by 0.5percentage with prices ending at Rs 39355 per Kg
Buy Crude Oct mcx above 5820 SL 5775 Tgt 5880
Sell Nickel Sep mcx below 1032 SL 1038 Tgt 1015