Commodity Market Outlook 12 Oct’2012

GOLD:

Gold trading projected high range for the day is 31412-31525

Gold trading projected low range for the day is 31496-31382

Gold dropped following data showing that U.S. initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2008 last week. The failure of the gold price to pierce $1,800 an ounce since then has led to a modest downward correction. S&P cut the country’s credit rating to BBB-minus with a negative outlook, just one notch above junk status.

Gold is trading below 50DMA, which is at 31541

Major Resistance on upside at 31455-31597-31739

Trend Deciding Level at 31369

Major Support on downside at 31227-31140-30998

SILVER:

Silver trading projected high range for the day is 62052-62358

Silver trading projected low range for the day is 62326-62021

Silver ended lower tracking weakness in crude and base metals prices as rupee firmness weighed on prices. IMF backed giving debt-burdened Greece and Spain more time to reduce their budget deficits

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 25.60 tonnes to 9894.58 tonnes

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 61395

Major Resistance on upside at 62159-62556-62953

Trend Deciding Level at 61945

Major Support on downside at 61548-61334-60937

CRUDE:

Crude trading projected high range for the day is 4874-4902

Crude trading projected low range for the day is 4883-4855

Crude ended lower on a report from the U.S. EIA showing crude inventories rose in the United States last week. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.67 million barrels.

Global oil demand is looking weaker than previously forecast as the slowing economy continues to weigh on consumption.

Major Resistance on upside at 4886-4917-4948

Trend Deciding Level at 4861

Major Support on downside at 4830-4805-4774

COPPER:

Copper trading projected high range for the day is 438.9-440.58

Copper trading projected low range for the day is 439.22-437.55

Copper settled flat as investors fret about growth outlook for China and grinding debt crisis in euro zone

Tepid demand growth and improving mine supply will swing the copper market into a 458,000-tonne surplus next year – ICSG

China’s demand signals remained so slack that some manufacturers were considering further exports of surplus stock. Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 219550mt that is up by 125mt

Major Resistance on upside at 439.69-441.47-443.25

Trend Deciding Level at 438.12

Major Support on downside at 436.34-434.77-432.99

MENTHOL OIL:

Menthol Oil trading projected high range for the day is 1164.4-1176.8

Menthol Oil trading projected low range for the day is 1168.8-1156.4

Menthol oil spot is at 1356/-.Spot market is down by Rs.2/-.

Menthol oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained tracking gains in spot demand.

Menthol oil production is likely to exceed 50000 tons this year, as per sources.

The total arrivals of mentha oil stood at 400-450 drums

Major Resistance on upside at 1170-1184-1198

Trend Deciding Level at 1159

Major Support on downside at 1120-1134-1145

Today Commodity Advises:

  • SELL CHANNA NCDEX NOV BELOW 4540 SL 4585 TGT 4512-4480
  • SELL TURMERIC NCDEX NOV BELOW 5530 SL 5630 TGT 5460-5370

Today Major Global Events:

Date & Time

Region

Event

Period

Survey

Prior

12 /10/12 & 11:00

IN

Industrial Production YoY

Aug

0.10%

12/10/12 & 14:30

EC

Euro-Zone Ind. Prod.sa {MoM}

Aug

-0.40%

0.60%

12/10/12 & 18:00

US

Producer Price Index {MoM}

Sep

0.80%

1.70%

12/10/12 & 19:25

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

Oct P

78

78.3

13/10/12

CH

Trade Balance {USD}

Sep

 $ 20.69B

$ 26.66B

13/10/12

CH

Exports YoY%

Sep

5.50%

2.70%

13/10/12

Ch

Imports YoY%

Sep

2.50%

-2.60%