Mcx Crude Commodity Trading once again shifting towards a bearish view which has been there with the commodity for more than couple of months from now. The OPEC meeting is programmed on this Thursday and in spite of talks about possible cut, oil price cut down at equally Brent and WTI. Cues from OPEC members too not supporting any positive move in the commodity as Saudi Arabia oil minister yesterday told reporters, it’s not the first time the oil market has been oversupplied, indirectly hinting at a case that markets need not be panicking about the situation. We believe cut in output would be moderate in the range of 500,000 BPD and insufficient as equated to current market supplies further supporting negativity. In fact our suggested resistance levels failed to breach so unless these levels are not cleared we shall not turn into fresh buy. For intraday we may remain short while need to observe how oil racts to the US data and accordingly shall take a fresh stance. Note, we have the weekly petroleum inventory number from the US tomorrow and survey suggest that the stocks for oil and products arrising meagerly which may also have some sort of negative impact in the oil prices.
Global Market View: First day of the week is past we saw mostly stable day while the global equities continued to trade positive and major currencies remained steady except that the Japanese Yen and its counterparts have been trading massively lower. In fact now many are talking about trade idea pertaining to carry trade where in one can take a long in Nikkei and soon short in USDJPY. Also, we may have a scenario where in one can take short in USDJPY and long in Gold. Nonetheless, this holds for a pretty long term. As far as today is concerned we are seeing the Asian markets trading positive this morning and global currencies are steady.
Economic data: German QoQ GDP and the US GDP, Personal consumption and house price index. The US GDP number is to be tracked critically which is expected to be lower from the previous quarter. If such scenario develops then some of the USD denominated assets may get hit. Talking about commodities, we had a very balanced day for bullion and the same are seen trading in a very confined range. However, both energy oil and base metal softened a tad. We could say the USD index remaining positive close to 88.40 is a threat to wholesome sector
Mcx Natural gas Commodity Trading got a good boost last week as on forecast that temperatures would stay below normal in the eastern US during the last week of Nov and mostly in initial Dec is losing out the same as fresh forecasts call for largely warmer temperatures in the country in Dec. warmer temperatures along with persistently higher production levels in the country is taking a beating on prices. e hold ranged view in NG today as volatility is likely to remain higher in near-term. Natural gas opened with 5percentage cut yesterday as the so called arctic blast was seen giving way for warmer to normalized temperatures in December month. While the commodity closed lower, it managed to half its losses and finished 2.5percentage down to $4.15 per MMBTU mark whereas Indian MCX NG shut lower by 4.4percentage Rs 254 level.
Sell Copper Mcx Nov below 411 SL 415 Tgt 406
Sell Crude Mcx Dec below 4770 SL 4820 Tgt 4700