In the fresh cues today morning, Crude at electronic trading at the NYMEX was hovering moderately in the green tracking positive cues from the weekly inventory number by the API. Oil prices added nearly 0.2% during the early Asian trade after the American Petroleum Institute (API) late night yesterday (IST) said US oil stocks fell over 5.67 million barrels, higher than market’s expectations. Tomorrow evening, we have the more important similar number from US Department of Energy wherein the agency is likely to show, crude stocks fell by nearly 2.8 million barrels last week.
As per the Bloomberg Survey, the US government agency might show gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.38 million barrels whereas the distillate stocks are seen rising by 750,000 barrels. However, after looking at the headline API number, we might see a moderately better reading as against markets expectations.
In the other global markets cues today morning, we are witnessing amazing movement during the first trading session of the year globally and particularly in Bullion. For crude as also said above, prices have advanced a tad supported by lower inventories released by API. Today we have most of the economic data pertaining to manufacturing activities which could have some impact on oil movement globally. We have the domestic manufacturing number at 10:30 APM IST while Germany, Euro-zone and UK PMI manufacturing data are expected at 2:30 to 3:00 PM IST. We believe these data may show slight change in numbers. Lastly, from global frontier, euro currency is trading steady at $1.3766 while the US dollar index is at 80.12 mostly stable. Asian equities are mostly trading weak this morning while local index Nifty is trading at 6344 up by 0.67%
Overall for Crude, we are maintaining a selling bias into the commodity notwithstanding the moderate gains in the early morning session today. The strong fall in last two trading session has pushed the prices below important trend line support wherein our technical study also suggests selling. We recommend traders to look for small pull-backs to initiate shorts in Intra-day session.
SELL CRUDE OIL MCX JAN BELOW 6103 SL 6123 TGT 6087-6067
BUY NATURAL GAS MCX JAN BAOVE 264 SL 260 TGT 268
COMMODITY MARKET EVENTS FOR DAY TRADING:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Event of the Day | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 2.1.14 | 07:15 | CH | HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI | Dec | 50.5 | 50.8 |
| 2.1.14 | 14:25 | GE | PMI Manufacturing | Dec F | 54.2 | 54.2 |
| 2.1.14 | 14:30 | EC | PMI Manufacturing | Dec F | 52.7 | 52.7 |
| 2.1.14 | 15:00 | UK | PMI Manufacturing | Dec | 58.2 | 58.4 |
| 2.1.14 | 19:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | Dec-28 | — | 338K |
| 2.1.14 | 19:00 | US | Continuing Claims | Dec-21 | — | 2923K |
| 2.1.14 | 19:28 | US | Markit US PMI Final | Dec | 54.7 | 54.7 |
| 2.1.14 | 20:30 | US | ISM Manufacturing | Dec | 56.9 | 57.3 |
| 2.1.14 | 20:30 | US | Construction Spending MoM | Nov | 0.60% | 0.80% |