Crude oil prices for the most active November expiry at the NYMEX contract managed to close in the green, though lower from the day’s high due to a political overhang in the US, which pressed the issues regarding the debt and budget. Additionally, prices were also weighed on by the reports which showed that the storm Karen’s intensity reduced, reducing the hit to the oil and gas platforms in the Golf coast.
WTI crude for the most active contract added 0.5% to $103.85 per barrel while the appreciation in the rupee pushed the local crude prices more than 1% lower to Rs 6386 per barrel at the MCX.
For the week as a whole, WTI oil faced high volatility with prices continuously trading higher and lower amongst a number of economic, political and commodity specific events during the period under review.
In major updates during the week, the pipeline company TransCanad are ported that it’s in the final stages of completing its 485 mile oil pipeline from Oklahoma to Texas by the end of this month. The Gulf Coast pipeline is expected to carry up to 700,000 barrels of oil per day and could expand to 830,000 bpd in the future. The update gave a strong boost to oil prices on the day of the announcement i.e Wednesday, as the same is likely to further relieve the supply-glut at the WTI delivery point in Cushing. Amongst other major developments for oil, the department of energy reported very high increase in the crude and gasoline stockpiles, though distillate supplies fell. The EIA said that crude stockpiles for the week ended September 27 jumped by 5.5 million barrels whereas gasoline supplies rose 3.5 million barrels, both more than double of analysts expectations. The official closure of the US summer driving season and high refinery runs from the US refinery lead to this very sharp increase in inventory levels. We feel that a similar kind of trend in the stock levels will continue in the coming weeks as the country has entered a lean period with regard to oil demand.
On the PVO side, Volumes and Open Interest at both the NYMEX and Brent platforms have witnessed little movement during the last week. While on one side, weekly volumes have remained stable at 1.126 million for the November contract, the next month’s reading has improved by 9% to 0.58 million contracts. At the Brent though, volumes for both the November and December contract have fallen by 4.3% and 8.9% respectively. Open interest also recorded a small change for the two contracts, particularly at the WTI. The above data continues to suggest that the markets are awaiting major trigger points for future trading directions.
During early Asian trade today, the major equity indices are all trading on a negative note, with average losses in the range of 1% following the movement in the US equity futures market. In the non-agri commodities, trading is mostly in a range during the early Asian session today. Crude oil prices are trading weaker, taking negative cues from the news on Karen. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Louisiana Offshore Oil Port returned workers and will probably start tanker loading respectively as fears of a strike from the storm reduced. In the domestic space, the rupee has opened nearly flat, with the bias extending on the bullish side and may cap any major gains in local non-agri commodities due to the parity.
Overall, the markets might continue to trade in a range as traders await key triggers. During the day, we have the important Sentix investor confidence report for the EU region, which is likely to provide some support to the commodity prices in the afternoon session, including oil. Though broader on an intraday basis, the trend still stay ranged, with the bias modestly on the negative side.
BULLION:
Gold Projected High Range at 29245-29465
Gold Projected Low Range at 29336-29116
Gold Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 29340-29590-29840
Gold Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 29900-28710-28460
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 29150
Silver Projected High Range at 48399-48005
Silver Projected Low Range at 48396-47900
Silver Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 48602-49007-49412
Silver Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 47790-47383-46978
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 48195
BASE METALS:
Copper Projected High Range at 456-460
Copper Projected Low Range at 454-449
Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 458-462-465
Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 450-445-441
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 453
Nickle Projected High Range at 862-875
Nickle Projected Low Range at 852-839
Nickel Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 870-880-891
Nickel Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 843-827-816
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 854
ENERGY:
Crude Projected High Range at 6409-6455
Crude Projected Low Range at 6410-6364
Crude Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 6432-6478-6523
Crude Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 6341-6296-6250
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6387
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 218-220
Natural Gas Projected Low Range at 219-218
Natural Gas Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 219-221-223
Natural Gas Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 215-214-212
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 217
Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 868-878
Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 874-863
Mentha Oil Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 872-884-896
Mentha Oil Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 852-844-832
Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 864
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
SELL MENTHA OIL MCX SEP BELOW 858 SL 864 TGT 852
BUY NATURAL GAS MCX SEP ABOVE 217 SL 215.50 Tgt 218.50
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
07.10.2013 | 05:20 | JN | Official Reserve Assets | Sep | — | $1254.2B |
07.10.2013 | 14:00 | EC | Sentix Investors Confidence | Oct | 9.3 | 6.5 |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | GE | Whole Sale Price Index MoM | Sep | — | -0.60% |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | US | Construction Spending MoM | Aug | 0.40% | 0.60% |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | US | Change in Private Payrolls | Sep | 182K | 152K |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | US | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Sep | 180K | 169K |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | US | Factory Orders | Aug | 0.30% | -2.40% |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | US | Unemployment Rate | Sep | 7.30% | 7.30% |
07.10.2013 | 10/12 | US | Change in Manf. Payrolls | Sep | 5K | 14K |
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