How Was Jobless Claims and DOE Inventory Today

Crude oil prices at the electronic trading platform in the US were little changed currently after healthy around a percent of gains in yesterday’s trading session. Oil gained along with broader rise in equity and commodity markets after comments from Janet L. Yellen, the next US Federal Chairman, who said there is still lot of scope for the world’s largest economy to improve while fuelling speculation that the easy monetary policy regime is here to stay. At the end of the trading session on Wednesday, Crude for most active December expiry at NYMEDX finished 0.9% higher at $93.9 per barrel.

However, despite the broad markets rise yesterday, overall cues regarding crude continue to be on the weaker side. Late night yesterday, post the closure of MCX markets the American Petroleum Institute in its weekly crude inventory report said that crude stocks rose 599,000 barrels for the week ended 8th November meanwhile refinery operations continue to be lower and fell by dropped by 0.6% points. The agency which has stopped publishing its report to the public is also reported to have said gasoline inventories dropped by 1.67 million barrels though distillate stocks rose 606,000 barrels. On a negative note its added, inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures rose 1.67 million barrels last week.

A more important, government report would be published today by the US department of energy, during the evening session today (IST). AS per Bloomberg survey, the DOE might show inventories rose by 800,000 barrels while also report fall in both gasoline and distillate stocks.

On one side as WTI rose yesterday, its spread to the Brent further widened and moved to its highest levels in more than seven months tracking the mixed to weaker crude inventory report and news which suggested that civilian problems in Libya once again are haunting the normal supply. On Wednesday, Brent’s premium widened with more gains coming into the front month contract. The front-month European benchmark crude ended the session at a premium of $13.25 to WTI, the widest gap since April. Brent saw its December month contract expiring yesterday. From Libya fresh news came that the country pumped just 250,000 barrels on Nov 10 down from an average of 1.28 million barrels a day in the first six months of 2013 and lower than almost 50% from its output/exports in the month of October. Above mentioned numbers are based on news yesterday and from the OPEC monthly report.

In other major cues in the global markets, there was a testimony in the US by Janet Yellen, the Fed chairman nominee which is shaking off the entire financial assets. Yellen stated, unless the US economy recovers further there would not be any tapering off its stimulus programme. This made the US equities to close on a positive note so we are seeing entire Asians to trade in green barring China that it has some local influence. The emerging nation’s currencies are also in an appreciating note against the US dollar. We believe market should continue to respect the comment unless any fresh trigger pops up. During the day today, we have the economic data from Germany, UK and Euro-zone which might create slight volatility in the commodity prices.

Meanwhile, the weekly petroleum data shall be released today from the US by department of energy (DOE). We believe crude stocks may continue to pile up and possibly this is going be the eight straight consecutive weeks, hence we believe oil prices might drift lower during the US session. We continue to hold a bearish view on oil for the day and recommend selling on higher levels to traders. The only risk factor being, gains could be minimal on the short trades if US equity markets continue to trade higher.

COMMODITY INTRADAY TIPS

BUY GOLD MCX DEC NEAR 30170-30180 SL 30085 TGT 30270-30350

SELL LEAD MCX NOV NEAR 132 SL 133 TGT 131

ECONOMIC INDICATORS:

DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
14.11.2013 10:00 JN Industrial Production MoM Sep F 1.50%
14.11.2013 10:00 JN Capacity Utilization MoM Sep -2.10%
14.11.2013 12:30 GE GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.30% 0.70%
14.11.2013 14:30 EC ECB Publishers Monthly Report
14.11.2013 15:00 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Oct -0.10% 0.70%
14.11.2013 15:30 EC GDP SA QoQ 3Q A 0.10% 0.30%
14.11.2013 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims Nov-09 330K 336K
14.11.2013 19:00 US Counting Claims Nov-01 2868K
14.11.2013 19:00 US Trade Balance Sep -$39.0B -$38.8B
14.11.2013 11/18 CH Foreign Direct Investment YoY Oct 5.70% 4.90%

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