ISM Manufacturing and Analysis Commodity Advisory Services

Crude Oil During the early morning trade on Monday, geopolitical tensions have taken center stage with the rift between Ukraine and Russia driving oil prices higher. Gold, Oil and Natural gas prices jumped up in trade as opening in Asian markets. Brent prices gained nearly 2% at the opening time in the moving above $111 per barrel level though cut back moderately to trade near the $110.50 per barrel level. The WTI Crude for April expiry at NYMEX also advanced more than a percent in the electronic trading to trade near $03.75 per barrel mark.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia which is the major supplier of natural gas and oil to Europe intensified during the weekend as the latter put its forces on combat readiness against Ukraine wherein it’s President, Vladimir Putin threatened to invade. Way back in September 2013, a dispute between Russia and Belarus caused anxiety about exports of oil by the country to EU. Markets are circumspect with the fact that if problems enhance and west imposes any kind of sanctions on Russia, the Soviet Union country may look for cutting down its oil and gas supplies to the European region. While Europe is a major consumer of Russia’s gas, markets estimates show situation is better than was a few years ago as Europe has made significant headway in increasing its gas stockpiles and that is keeping the lid over energy prices rise at-least for now.

On a broader format, while we had a Weekly selling view in the US based crude oil on expectations that winter season is slowly receding in the country and as the nation moves into lean demand period. However, today’s sudden spur in oil prices due to geo-political issues are forcing us to change our stance at-least in Intra-day. We recommend buying in the commodity though feel profit potential could remain limited as of now. At the same time, if a real war happens between the aforementioned countries, prices may continue to step-up in short-term

Global market analysis: Tensions over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine intensified. The impact is felt on few asset classes like gold and silver which are trading higher by more than a per cent. WTI oil is also trading higher at $103.75 up by 1.14% while natural gas prices have also moved higher and currently trading at $4.722 up by 2.52%. Almost all of The Asia is trading down by more than a per cent, EM’s currencies are also down while Yen has appreciated and the US Treasury gained. we believe the impact of geo political tension is being reflected on few asset classes wherein especially gold may see further rise as part of safe haven scenario whereas silver might take cues from the same. Looking at the Asian equities performance, Indian rupee might trade weak against the US dollar which can help to accelerate the Indian commodities to trade higher. Coming to crude oil, which is already trading higher by a per cent and may soar further as Ukraine tension might help the Brent to rise meanwhile its impact would be felt on WTI too. Hence, we recommend buying WTI oil futures at the MCX platform. We have the Germany, Euro-zone and the US manufacturing number and believe them to show waning performance which could further have modestly negative impact on base metals and energy.

Commodity Advisory Services Tips

Crude Oil Mcx Mar Buy Above 6400 sl 6370 Tgt 6470 {Or} Buy On Dips Near 6370 sl 6330 Tgt 6450

Today Economic Data Indicators:

DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
03.03.14 14:25 GE PMI Manufacturing Feb F 54.7 54.7
03.03.14 14:30 EC PMI Manufacturing Feb F 53 53
03.03.14 15:00 UK PMI Manufacturing Feb 56.9 56.7
03.03.14 15:00 UK Money Supply M4 MoM Jan -1.40%
03.03.14 19:00 US Personal Income Jan 0.20% 0.00%
03.03.14 19:00 US Personal Spending Jan 0.10% 0.40%
03.03.14 19:28 US Markit US PMI Final Feb 56.6
03.03.14 20:30 US ISM Manufacturing Feb 52 51.3
03.03.14 20:30 US Construction Spending MoM Jan -0.10% 0.10%