Mcx India Commodity Outlook – 05 July’2013

BULLION:

The US markets were closed yesterday due to the Independence Day holiday. Mcx India gold futures settled at Rs 26143, downward 0.58% from the before close. From the euro-zone, the BOE and ECB have kept their interest rates unchanged, which had no major impact on the euro and gold prices. The European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said that the monetary stimulus plan would remain accommodative to spur growth in the economies and also hinted that interest may be further inferior if the economy faced a downside risk. The euro depreciated by 0.75% which pressurized gold prices.

Gold Projected High Range at 26206-26286

Gold Projected Low Range at 26252-26172

Gold Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 26239-26333-26429

Gold Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 26079-26014-25919

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 26174

Silver Projected High Range at 41162-41382

Silver Projected Low Range at 41322-41102

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 41245-41519-41793

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 40804-40637-40363

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 41078

BASE METALS:

Base metals remained slow and prices declined in the range of 0 percent to 0.61 percent, except aluminum at the LME, in line with our vista. The ECB Chief Draghi stated that they would continue with a low interest rate and lower it if essential as the downside risk to the European economy remained intact. Generally, due to the Independence Day holiday in the US, the financial markets including base metals remained slow.

Copper Projected High Range at 423-425

Copper Projected Low Range at 425-422

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 424-427-431

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 418-416-413

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 422

CRUDE:

The US markets were shut last day owing the American Independence Day. At the domestic front, oil futures for the July contract remained stable and settled at Rs 6075

Crude Projected High Range at 6094-6121

Crude Projected Low Range at 6106-6079

Crude Mcx Jul Resistance on Upside at 6106-6136-6166

Crude Mcx Jul Support on Low side at 6053-6030-6000

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6083

Mentha Oil:

Mentha Oil spot prices at the Barabanki mandi were at Rs 10/kg up whereas at the Chandausi and Sambhal mandis, spot prices were at 5/kg, higher compared to the previous day. 60% of crop in the major mentha growing region of India have been harvested. Clear weather conditions resulting in a good oil recovery, and favoring an increase arrivals as well. Across the major mandis of UP (Chandausi, Sambhal, Barabanki etc.), arrivals were around 1200-1400 drums compared to the earlier lower arrivals. A slight pickup in industrial demand along with adequate supply from the major growing regions influenced mentha oil future prices too. We believe mentha prices should remain stable today while there might be a slight surge in prices, supported by a marginal increase in the spot price.

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 964-975

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 963-951

Mentha Oil Mcx Jul Resistance on Upside at 970-981-991

Mentha Oil Mcx Jul Support on Low side at 947-936-925

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 958

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TODAY ECONOMIC DATA TOWATCH:

DATE TIME Region Event Period Survey Prior
5/7/2013 15:30 GE Factory Orders MoM (sa) May 1.20% -2.30%
5/7/2013 18:00 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 165K 175K
5/7/2013 18:00 US Change in Private Payrolls Jun 175K 178K
5/7/2013 18:00 US Change in Manufacture Payrolls Jun 0K -8K
5/7/2013 18:00 US Unemployment Rate Jun 7.50% 7.60%
5/7/2013 18:00 US Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp Jun 0.20% 0.00%
5/7/2013 18:00 US Change in Household Employment Jun 319