Oil Pumps Shell Flow Down

BULLION:

Gold October futures are trading at $1372, marginally down by 0.04%. The dollar index is trading up by 0.05% against the major currencies, weighing down on gold prices at the COMEX. SPDR holdings, the largest bullion-backed ETF increased by 0.20% and settled at 914 tons from the previous close, which indicates that gold prices might revive from the downside. The FOMC minutes, where the major concern would be the tapering off of quantitative easing will be closely watched by the markets. This would support the dollar on the back of positive economic releases, which would push gold prices lower. There are no major economic releases expected from Europe. However during the US hours, the dollar index might strengthen. MBA mortgage applications might remain mixed, while the existing home sales numbers might increase, which would support the dollar, causing gold prices to slump. At the MCX, gold prices may remain under pressure due to the appreciation in the rupee against the dollar. From the derivatives point of view, prices have increased while volumes and open interest have declined which indicates that investors are involved in intraday trading and fresh buying in the market may pressurize gold prices in the near future. Therefore, investors should remain cautious due to the rupee volatility and the FOMC minutes in the evening session, which may keep gold prices volatile.

Gold Projected High Range at 30990-31459

Gold Projected Low Range at 30899-30430

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 31240-31679-32118

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 30300-29800-29361

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 30740

Silver Projected High Range at 50812-51827

Silver Projected Low Range at 50569-49553

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 51359-52294-53229

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 49329-48232-47297

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 50263

BASE METALS:

Base metals forwards at the LME are trading marginally down. Ahead of the high voltage economic events in the form of FOMC minutes, Chinese flash manufacturing release and Jackson Hole symposium we expect sluggishness in base metals to remain intact. Fundamentally, the volumes and open interest have also declined for most of the metals indicating thin participation. The cancelled warrants have also declined for most of the base metals expect nickel which indicates slowing spot demand and should cap gains in base metals in t day’s session. At our domestic front, we expect the recent steps by the Central bank to curb speculation should support in correction in the rupee and this should cap any gains in base metals at the MCX. Overall, selling at higher levels should be continued in today’s session.

Copper Projected High Range at 466-471

Copper Projected Low Range at 467-463

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 469-472-476

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 461-457-454

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 465

Nickel Projected High Range at 935-946

Nickel Projected Low Range at 938-927

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 941-952-964

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 919-909-897

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 931

CRUDE:

Market speculation that the pace of decline in the US crude inventory could fall further while the refinery utilization rate is also expected to continue to fall from the near 93% level a few weeks ago towards the 88% mark also pressed market expectations over near-term demand. Concerns that short-term demand might remain below last month’s average pushed the near-month October month contract as equated to the far month contract both at WTI and the MCX. On average, the most active near-month contract fell by 1.65% whereas the far-month contract fell 1.4%. This movement was however contrary to the movement happening in the Brent, where the near-month October contract enhanced its spread to the far 1-month forward November delivery by nearly 0.1% on immediate supply fears in the middle-east.

Amongst other important data for the commodity, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.2 million barrel fall in crude oil supplies for the week ended August 16, whereas the more important gasoline stocks plunged by 3.7 million barrels, both witnessing a higher-than-expected drop. The more important weekly inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration is expected to

Show a fall of around 1.5 million barrels today for both the crude and gasoline. It should be noted that estimates published by Bloomberg itself have shown a higher fall in inventory at 1.5 million barrels against yesterday’s cumulative forecast of a 1.25 million barrel drop. If the API inventory data is to be believed, there is a chance that we can see further positivity, especially from the Gasoline inventory data. The refinery utilization rate though might continue to fall by 0.5%.

Amongst other cues in the global markets today, most Asian equities are trading with modest losses ahead of the minutes from the US Fed and manufacturing PMI numbers from Asia and Europe due tomorrow. Locally, the Indian Rupee has opened marginally positive backed by fresh series of measures from the RBI to curb speculation .and ease liquidity fears into the market. While there are no major economic releases from Europe, markets will eye the MBA mortgage applications and the Existing home sales from US. Moreover, the centre stage would be on the FOMC minutes markets which will be released post the closure of our markets at MCX. Despite so much of speculation and fears ahead of the minutes, we feel there is very less chance that minutes would be a game changer for markets in the near-term. Rather, we feel that the concerns that Fed minutes could spell something about trimming down its loose monetary policy stance are also low.

Crude Projected High Range at 6769-6843

Crude Projected Low Range at 6826-6752

Crude Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 6797-6890-6984

Crude Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 6647-6592-6499

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6741

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 220-223

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 222-219

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 221-225-229

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 216-213-210

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 219

Mentha Oil:

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 867-882

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 876-860

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 873-892-910

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 841-829-810

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 860

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS

Sell Crude Oil Mcx Sep Below 6644 add more on rise near 6665 sl 6700 Tgt 6616

Buy Natural Gas Mcx Aug above 217.60 sl 215.60 Tgt 220

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

Visit profitkrishna.com to know more about Commodity Outlook and Best Stock Tips