Mcx Crude commodity market Trading  need not to talk much as broader problems over global economic concern and supply side easing continuing in the middle-east is reflecting on the black liquid which is down over a percent both at the Brent and the WTI. As per the developments on Friday evening, Iran had followed Saudi Arabia wherein it is planning to offer discount on Iranian Light by 82 cents a barrel as compared to the average of Oman and Dubai further casting a negative shadow over the commodity. As prices dwindle, discounts and cuts in OSP’s is just another meter which suggests that market is not in a good condition and has a chance to move into further un chartered territories in medium-term. Traders and Inventors should be watching how actually other members of the group like Kuwait and Iraq act over the same, as officially they are supposed to release their prices estimates in the coming week.

In other developments last week, crude inventories for week ended October 3rd jumped by 5 million barrels, higher than markets forecasts whereas gasoline and distillate stocks too rose, with fall in refinery utilization rate and lower demand putting pressure on product stocks as well. Gasoline inventory advanced 1.18 million barrels while distillate stocks increased 439,000 barrels further affecting prices negatively. While we have a weekly sell recommendation, though feel that commodity remains highly oversold and thus we recommend only momentary trades in the oil today with negative bias

Global Market View on Monday morning, all Asian equity indices are trading on a negative note tracking the continued fall of the US markets. S&P 500 closed at 1906.13 down by more than 1 percent last Friday as markets continue to reel under the uncertainty about the Global growth prospects. Dollar index has shown some weakness in today’s trade against the Japanese Yen which has been appreciating as investors return to respect its haven status in times of uncertainty. US dollar index is currently trading at 85.45. Into major cues today morning, Chinese trade data surprised on the positive side supporting some gains in the base metals segment, notwithstanding the weaker equities whereas crude oil too slumped heavily though Bullion gained.

Economic Data: No major economic data from US and EU today, India CPI and Export/Import data due.

We had maintained overall bearish bias in the commodity lately where moderately better stocks report too could not support the commodity from falling in past week. As per news report NaturalGas Weather.com said cool blasts coupled with showers and thunderstorms will push temperatures across the central US and Northeast this weekend to below average however nothing too excessive. At the same time, Southern and Western parts of the country will remain very warm thus keeping overall demand for the commodity down. We continue with our negative bias in the commodity for today.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver mcx Dec below 39000 SL 39350 TP 38600

Sell Nickel mcx Oct below 1013 SL 1025 TP 993

Mcx Crude oil commodity market trading recorded another day of huge drop as Brent and the WTI, both tumbled while both of them officially moving into bear territory as compared to their 2014 highs. As of yesterday’s update, OPEC basket for crude oil slipped to near $88, the agency’s officials notified putting further pressure on the global oil markets which have already been flooded with easing supplies and lower demand. WTI touched a low near $84 per barrel yesterday though managed good pullback in last few hours and closed down. The IMF’s earlier statement which showed, the world economy would expand at a slower pace of 3.8percentage in 2015 as compared to earlier forecast of a growth near 4percentage in July weight markets sentiment with continued weaker EU and Chinese data variables fueling further concerns. Equities across the globe fell last day also adding to the downside pressure on the oil prices globally.

As of today morning trade, we are seeing fresh pressure escalating over both WTI and Brent which are down by 1.8percentage and 1.75percentage respectively and that should push our markets fairly lower by around 1percentage at the time of opening (adjusting with Rupee and yesterday’s closing). Though direction for oil stays down, daily RSI has moved to near 16 for the WTI, so there should be a pullback sooner than later. We recommend fresh sell only on pullback or better that traders can take bets in other non-agri commodities today rather than target crude oil.

Global Market View as of Friday morning, all Asian markets are trading on a negative note tracking the huge and surprising fall in US equity markets overnight. S&P 500 closed at 1928.00 down by more than 2percentage as markets feel uncertain about the Global growth prospects, and this in turn could be having a negative effect on the companies or corporate earnings. Dollar index has recouped some of the losses from the last two days wherein it touched a low of 85.00 while is currently trading at 85.50. Most of the global currencies earlier appreciated with respect to the dollar with majors being Euro and Pound which advanced to 1.2700 and 1.6122 yesterday, though are marginally down from those highs. There is no major economic data to be released in today’s session so probably movement might remain constrained in most non-agri commodities locally and globally.

We maintain bearish view in the commodity on account of continued weather related cues in the US and largely increasing supplies in the country. As per EIA report, stocks increased by 105 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 3, compared with an expected increase of around 108 BCF. However still its was way higher than 5 year average injection during this time of the year around 84 BCF, and inflicts price direction. As said yesterday, MDA said temperatures in the East will range from seasonal to about 1 degree below normal from Oct 18 through Oct 22 against earlier forecast for a shot of cold air sweeping the Midwest during the period. We hold selling bias in the commodity for today.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sel l Silver Mcx Dec below 38560 SL 38860 Tgt 37950

Sell Natural Gas Mcx Oct below 233 SL 236 Tgt 227

Mcx Gold Commodity market Trading fell as of yesterday’s closing, we have seen sharp movement in international markets as it surged in late night trade tracking huge slump in US Dollar after the release of FOMC Meeting minutes. Spot Gold jumped heavily late night IST and its repercussions are being reflected on Comex prices today which are standing with a gain of 1.6percentage to $1225 per ounce mark. However, note that other than FED related cues which we were anticipating to drive good volatility in the commodity, all other factors still call for bearish sentiment to continue in near-term. On that note, we are daring to maintain our bearish bias in the commodity however advice traders to only look for momentum trades. At the domestic market gold may see a gap wherein those initiating Shorts are advised to maintain strict SL above 27000 at MCX Dec contract. Gold Dec prices at Comex moved in-line with our view yesterday with the commodity largely traded in a ranged manner with negative bias. Comex Gold active contract slipped 0.5percentage to $1206 r ounce whereas at MCX Gold Dec gained 0.15percentage to Rs 26880 per 10 Gms.

Global Market View: Today’s morning session, all the Asian markets are trading on a positive note tracking the spectacular bounce of the US markets. S&P 500 closed at 1968.59 up by 1.75 following the FED minutes from the September meetings which were released last night. From reading between the lines, one can now assume that the speculation about an early rate hike from the US would recede in the near term. SGX Nifty is trading on a positive note up by 40.00 points in early trade this morning, indicating a pull back from the recent declines. Dollar index has declined after the Fed minutes last night and is currently trading at 85.30. Most of the global currencies have appreciated with respect to the dollar. Euro is trading on a positive note to the dollar in the morning session at 1.2728 appreciating by 100 pips in the international market, and Pound too is currently trading on an appreciating note at 1.6169.

Economic data: Germany: Trade balance, Current account balance, UK: BOE rate decision, US: Jobless claims and the wholesale inventories. Likewise the case with gold, silver too is trading higher today with gains of over 2.25percentage at Comex to $17.45 per ounce.

Bullion rose as Fed officials expressed concern that US economy may be at risk from a global slowdown. For today is concerned, we may see some a bit of moderate positivism extending though overall trend has not changed still. For today we suggest making only momentary trades. We also expect that in intraday, once again good volatility during the US session on bullion as the jobless numbers are likely to rise. Onto the Ratio side, we advised Gold/Silver Ratio buying wherein traders might have made modest profit as per closing. Nevertheless, those who carried forward could have seen their gains reversing down as we are seeing the opposite forces playing in against our view that silver would underperform gold. We advice traders holding the ratio to maintain stop loss with reduced risk exposure. Fresh positions should be avoided as market lack clarity at this point Silver followed similar path as gold with the commodity though it saw good underperformance as equated to gold, as also been our view yesterday. Silver comex Dec contract slumped 1percentage to $17.06 per ounce while MCX silverwork same month’s expiry skid 0.3percentage to Rs 38220 per Kg.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 39150 SL 39750 Tgt 38500

Sell Natural gas Mcx Oct below 240 SL 243 Tgt 235

Crude commodity market Trading as per major global update, IMF yesterday said economic growth in the US which was aiding a helping hand to the global economy as other major economies still remained under doldrums was getting weaker as equated to IMF’s own forecast a couple of month back. It added, some financial markets may be overheating backed by sustained period of near-zero rates which pushed the major equity markets globally down with the US lading around 1.5percentage yesterday. The agency, trimmed its global growth forecast to 3.3percentage for 2013 as compared to 3.4percentage earlier whereas reduced the next years forecast too. In other commodity related developments which further weighed oil were expectations over increase in crude inventories with continued drop in refinery utilization rate. As per Bloomberg survey, crude stocks likely increased by 2 million barrels last week. Though moderate increase was anticipated in terms of products side, overall bias continues to be weaker. If we look at the API stocks report released today morning (IST); news repts showed huge build in crude inventories by 5.1 million barrels adding to negative pressure on the commodity. There are no major data points to be watched on the economic side today though the late night FOMC minutes for Sept 16-17 meeting might create good volatility in commodities and equities alike. On crude, weaker equities and largely stable to negative expectations from inventory report would continue to push the commodity lower. With the EIA too in its STEO report cutting price and demand forecast for the commodity in medium-term, we feel overall trade would continue to be lower.

Global Market View: In today’s morning session, Asian markets are trading on a negative note tracking the negative US markets. S&P 500 closed at 1935.10 down by 1.51 percent as markets are feeling jittery about the earning season that is to begin this week while IMF’s global economic growth forecasts too hurting equities. SGX Nifty is trading on a negative note down by 28.00 points in early trade this morning, indicating a continuing weakness in today’s session as well Dollar index has declined after weeks of appreciation as markets feel nervous about the results season, and is currently trading at 85.79. Euro is trading on a marginally positive note to the dollar in the morning session at 1.2634, and Pound too is currently trading on an appreciating note at 1.6064.

Economic data: No major data except by the FOMC’s meeting minute is scheduled.

We had maintained bearish bias in the commodity on expectations that warmer to largely normalized temperatures were seen in much of US Western and North-Central region which might continue to keep demand for the commodity subdued in coming days As per Bloomberg news, WSI Corp earlier said temperatures would be mostly normal or higher than usual in the lower 48 states from Oct. 11 through Oct. 15. On additional negative note, EIA in its STEO said, Households relying on NG will see heating costs drop 4.6percentage to $649 as compared to previous winter. Continued higher supplies are expected to keep a lid over the commodity in coming winter. We hold moderate selling bias in the commodity today. Natural gas prices are taking us on a ride with the commodity witnessing wide fluctuations in intraday movement with or without the same developments over weather. After a big over 3.5percentage drop in NG on Monday, we saw November expiry contract advanced 1.5percentage to $3.96 per MMBTU whereas in MCX NG added 1percentage to Rs 243.5 mark.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Gold Mcx Dec below 26860 SL 26960 Tgt 26650

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 38410 SL 38800 Tgt 37850

Gold commodity Trading market held a ranged trade yesterday wherein this morning too electronic session prices too trade with little movement. Though overall trend still remains down, we understand that the trend is down but the prices trading in oversold territory is probably halting the metal to trade flat while permitting against fresh round of sell off. Also, weaker equities across major economies might have helped gold and silver to trade sideways to marginally positive despite weaker other commodity asset classes. For the day, we hold a cautious bearish outlook on the Gold and recommend selling the commodity from higher levels. EU CPI and US Consumer confidence data would be tracked. Gold Dec prices were largely steady last day as industrial commodities mainly and equities witnessed decent volatility with the Comex yellow metal trading in a small band between $1224 and $1215 per ounce mark before closing higher by 0.3percentage to $1219.  Indian MCX Gold for to be active December contract gained modestly better with the help of Rupee and added 0.45percentage to Rs 26915 per 10 Grams

Global Market View: First day of the week is over and as we start new day, Asian equity markets are trading negative following cues from US markets while the South American equity indices have declined the most. From the global FX front, the USD index remained steady, pound sterling; euro and the Japanese Yen too have declined a tad. We do not understand the exact reason for so much of disparity. We talk about commodities, though gold and silver remained steady but unexpectedly oil and the industrial metals moved up. We may possibly look at the US treasury yield which has fallen to 2.4771percentage may have been a reason for some of the commodities to drive higher whereas for the WTI, refinery outages producing gasoline commodity probably aided the extra bit of gains.

Economic data: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.20, down from prior number of 50.50. India credit policy meeting, retail sales from Germany and EU CPI gauge. US S&P Case-Shriller index, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence Index

On a broader perspective, we are holding near similar stand for the commodity as with gold as prices related direction stays same for the two, with gold driving the movement. While we saw modest gains in the two metals yesterday, prices mainly for silver continue to hover in oversold phase. Yesterday too we said, silver has slumped nearly 18percentage in last 11 weeks and trades in oversold phase on weekly scenario. On that note, we are shifting our intraday view towards buying, notwithstanding the subdued or bearish outlook continuing over the short-to-medium-term time frame. Note that, US data on regional PMI and Consumer confidence would be watched other than the EU CPI. In case US data comes very strong, we could see fresh round of weakness building in Bullion complex which is the only risk against our intraday view Silver along with Gold traded in a range manner though performance for December month contract was marginally better to $17.50 per ounce, higher by 0.55percentage Silver MCX for same months expiry locally gained by 0.5percentage with prices ending at Rs 39355 per Kg

 Commodity Trading Tips

Buy Crude Oct mcx above 5820 SL 5775 Tgt 5880

Sell Nickel Sep mcx below 1032 SL 1038 Tgt 1015

Crude oil commodity market trading has the major cues for the WTI last week, the DoE stocks data showed crude supplies falling by 4.27 million barrels, higher than our and markets forecast wherein products too depicted a moderate improvement, especially the gasoline which showed inventories fell by 414,000 barrels. Note that last week’s bullish inventory data from the crude stocks front should not be taken as a trend changer as crude stocks fell due to higher refinery utilization and lower imports to the US.

A report from Platt’s showed total US imports declined 1.244 MBPD to 6.87 MBPD on a week on week comparison. However, positivity could be taken from the fact that gasoline stocks fell whereas its implied demand increased moderately. Earlier we had talked about the internal variables for WTI wherein while prices were largely flattish on a weekly comparison, backwardation between WTI Nov-Dec contract stayed flat around 55-60 cents. However in the past week we have seen increase in prices go along the increase in backwardation which suggests modest increase in immediate demand for WTI. For the day, as per Brent oil price direction is concerned, we are still holding bearish bias while for WTI is concerned, the view for the day may be ranged to moderately positive as on one end the commodity takes negative cues from weaker economy and equity related cues though its inherent strength might continue to aid the optimism, as also seen in the previous week. While the Euro area data is likely to pull the shared currency and may add some pressure on the WTI, we advice buying the same on dips.

Global Market View: Let us start the week with euphoria and trade smart. This morning Asian markets are trading mixed while Hang Seng has fallen out rightly by more than one and half per cent. From the global markets- the USD index is managing to trade strong at 85.68, euro down at $1.2679, British pound steady and the Japanese Yen is managing above 109.40. Over the weekend there has been no major development except that the US and its ally’s strikes over Syrian region continued.

Economic data: We have the euro-zone confidence numbers which are more or less likely to deteriorate. We have German CPI and later today from the US, personal income & spending and the pending home sales number along with Dallas Fed manufacturing index. In commodities, most of them are trading steady this morning while going ahead we may see good movement in the market.

Natural gas commodity market had saw strong gains in the last week though on a broader sense, NG in the US has been trading in a major consolidating range between the $3.75 to $4.10 per MMBTU for past many weeks now. Last week, we saw the commodity took positive developments over weather which may support the same over a couple of days as well. Weather forecasts from the US CPC show below normal temperatures over a central US up till second week of 10th of October which may add some demand however we could see normalized temperatures later which could once again start inflicting the commodity direction from higher levels. For Intraday, we advice traders taking long positions for small targets.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Buy Crude oil Mcx Oct above 5735 SL 5680 TP 5785

Buy Natural gas Mcx Oct above 250 SL 245 TP 255

Mcx Gold Commodity market largely stayed weak yesterday but the pace of loss was meager while this morning it is trading down marginally at$1215 weaker by 0.3percentage at Comex. It looks like the trend may remain bearish for today. Robust US economic data over New Home sales driving good gains in the US equity markets meanwhile Dollar too inched higher. Additional gains in USDX came as Euro slipped on speculation that weakening economic cues would push central bank to add more stimuli. Declining Euro, feeble investment demand and subdued tensions are all likely to pull the gold prices lower in today’s session as well. Also, the Indian rupee is expected to trade modestly higher which should help locally non agri commodities to trade down. We maintain sell stance today. Bullion fell yesterday, taking back their gains made in the earlier half of the week as geo-political issues receded and markets took note rising US Dollar which hit 85 mark Gold Dec Comex fell 0.20percentage to $1218 per ounce where as MCX Gold October slipped at a higher rate by 0.45percentage to Rs26550per 10 Grams.

Global Market View: Today morning, Asian markets are trading on a positive note tracking positive US markets. US new home sales increased by 18percentage against an expectation of4.4percentage. Dollar index has crossed the 85.00 mark yesterday evening after the data and has led to the depreciation of the all the major currencies. Euro is trading on a negative note to the dollar in the morning session at 1.2778, and Pound too is currently trading on a depreciating note at 1.6325. Major

Economic data for today: European Money supply and loads of economic data from the US market.

Mcx Silver commodity market today morning is trading lower by 0.4percentage adding to previous day’s losses and likely that weaker Euro along with lower to subdued trend in base metals would continue to provide weight on the whitish metal today. Volatility may remain high in evening session as we have large number of data points from US today. Yesterday, with the naked sell call we also recommend Gold/Silver ratio wherein traders might be making modest profits. Those who are holding longs can look to book profits in today’s session or look to reduce stop loss in the same position. Silver December too moved in a near similar trend yesterday with the commodity losing along with gold and also didn’t got support from base metals which gained a tad after better New-Home Sales data. Silver Dec Comex fell 0.45percentage while MCX Silver for same month’s expiry closed lower by 0.65percentage to Rs 39265 per Kg.

Commodity Intraday Tips

Sell Gold Mcx Oct below 26580 SL 26700 Tgt 26480

Buy Crude Mcx Oct above 5665 SL 5600 Tgt 5700

Crude commodity market has a Bloomberg survey, crude stockpiles expanded by around 750,000 barrels in the past week to 363 million. Distillate inventories on the other side are seen rising by 500,000 barrels while little changes is seen on the gasoline supplies front. Note that we have been maintaining a bearish bias over inventory data and mainly on Crude stocks as well as refinery utilization front which historically moves into seasonal maintenance during this time of the year. However, if we look at the other similar data from the private sector major API, news reports showed crude inventories dropped by huge 6.5 million barrels last week whereas stockpiles at Cushing rose moderately to 158,000 barrels. Though the same data showed no major demand coming as both gasoline and distillate stocks rose, this surely calls for a case wherein refinery activity might have increased last week. On a cumulative note, data release from the government backed DoE if follows the reading from API, it would be taken positively albeit with a pinch oas we still lack actual consumption. Looking at other international cues, spread between the two major benchmarks WTI and Brent slipped further to $5.10 levels. Looking at developments, Libya once again saw its oil production increasing to 800,000 barrels a day as the Sahara field restarted yesterday, report showed. That could be one of the major reasons behind Brent underperforming WTI in a big way yesterday despite the positivity over geo-political tensions front. We had a bullish view on WTI oil last day which went well wherein for the day we continue to hold modest bullish bias in the commodity. We suggest making momentary trades on the positive side for the day

Global Market View: Tuesday saw stocks falling off the cliff on global growth concerns as French and German flash PMIs came in lower than what market would have liked. The US posted a negative close so Asians are trading mostly mixed to slightly bearish this morning. From the global currency front, the USD index remained steady at 84.64, the shared currency euro is managing at $1.2853 while Yen and the pound sterling revived a slight gain in the morning. Coming to commodities, gold and silver were awfully volatile while they ended the day with marginal change from the previous close and this morning trading at$1223 and $17.73 mostly steady from the previous close. We saw a good recovery in oil prices especially the Tirade while Brent remained down. From the base metals front markets were all down except Nickel.

Natural Gas commodity market the latest developments in the markets, MDA Weather Services said the West Coast through the Midwest and into the Northeast will see above-normal temperatures over the next five days though if we check a separate weather forecasting report from the government we are getting conflicting view. Midday weather update of the government’s Global Forecast System “was a lot more moderate,” showing above-normal temperatures across most of the East Coast and South 11 to 15 days from yesterday, according to from Frontier Weather Inc. This could be one of the reasons behind gains getting faded away for NG and it closing lower. On Stocks front too, initial expectations depict inventories might have increased by 97 BCF, higher than last week data. We hold selling stance in the commodity today

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Mcx Copper Nov below 415 SL 418 Tgt 412

Buy Mcx Crude above at 5600 SL 5545 Tgt 5650