MCX Crude as per major news yesterday evening, the OPEC countries likely boosted oil output to a 14 month high in the month of October notwithstanding the crude prices sinking lower to a bear market, a survey from Bloomberg showed. Production by the group is probably rose by 53,000 BPD to 30.974 MBPD led by increase in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya. While last month’s total was revised 14,000 BPD lower, overall the supply side issues have been dragger on international oil markets for last couple of months. Separately, US crude output rose 4percentage to 8.97 MBPD last week, data from EIA showed which is the highest since January 1983.This morning the US oil is seen trading at $80.96 down by 0.20percentage from its previous close. We believe the inherent fundamentals are still poor for the commodity therefore it is trading down and likely that it may again continue to remain bearish. Also, the USD appreciating could be a hindrance factor to keep oil prices lower. For today, we recommend selling the counter from higher levels.
Global Market View: Today morning, Asian equity markets are trading on a positive note after the better than expected US GDP data. US stocks rallied on the news of the economy expanding at a faster pace in the third quarter than investors were expecting. S&P 500 closed at 1994.65 up by 0.62percentage yesterday. SGX nifty is continuing to trade on an appreciating note and is likely to open gap up and continue to appreciate. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on an appreciating note with respect to the dollar. US dollar index continued to trade over the 86 marks, thanks to the stronger outlook for the US economy. Euro was seen trading on a marginally appreciating note with respect to the dollar while Pound was on a slightly depreciating note.
Economic data from the UK, Germany and European economies could weigh in on today’s session. Retail sales data from Germany and the all important inflation figures euro area would need to be watched out for the day. From the US we have personal income and spending number at 6 PM IST. Looking at the economic data and the market behavior the existing trend in most of the assets are likely to continue.
MCX Natural Gas Commodity Market Trading updates forecasted cooler temperatures in Eastern part of the US supported the trend. MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland said weather may be colder than usual in the East-US through Nov 3. However, we feel there are two other variable which too needed to be checked. First, Inventory numbers in the US came weaker than expected wherein actual showed addition of 87 BCF against exp of 84 BCF against last week’s number @94. Separately, already we have seen good gains in NG for last 3-4 session wherein the commodity is moving towards resistance levels in weekly chart. With the CPC 6-10 days Temperature forecast not displaying any major changes, we would be a bit cautious in intraday. Today’s outlook is modestly +ve, though traders should be ready to switch to other direction in a day or two.
Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 36950 SL 37250 Tgt 36150
Sell Copper Mcx Nov below 418 SL 420 Tgt 412