Commodity Outlook for 05 Sep’2012

Posted on September 5, 2012 by Sree Lakshmi Reddy

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31225-31599.

Gold settled higher on weaker US data fuelling expectations the Fed will implement fresh stimulus measures.

Gold seen support as ECB will announce details of measures to help stabilize the region’s sovereign debt markets.

ECB says gold, gold receivables fell EU1 mln in week. Forex reserves fell EU2.1 bln to EU241.9 bln.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 60952-62744.

Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in U.S. contracted for third consecutive month in August

The Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy, leaving the ECB’s meeting on Thursday in focus.

Holdings at is shares silver trust dropped by 28.63 tonnes to 9642.97 tonnes

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5235-5453.

Crude ends lower as weak data adds to economic worries

Oil futures were higher earlier in the session as market sentiment improved after ECB President Mario barrel.

Prices getting support on growing concerns over tightening supplies from the North Sea region & Tropical Storm Leslie.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 427.1-432.7.

Copper dropped as U.S. data added further concern about the state of the global economy

ECB is expected to unveil details of a long-awaited debt-buying scheme to tackle the region’s debt crisis

Market sentiment remained upbeat amid growing speculation Fed was moving closer to stimulate growth in US economy

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 218800mt that is down by -6475mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 102.4-105.4.

Zinc gained despite of lower than expected PMI from the US ISM exerted pressure on base metal market

China’s demand for refined zinc weakened in August from July diluting hopes for a fourth-quarter rise in consumption.

Moody’s adjustment and warning added pressure on the EBC’s debt purchase plan.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 949550mt that is down by -1525mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 886.7-915.

Nickel dropped as as lower-than-expected PMI from the US Institution of Supply and Management weighed on market.

Market is waiting for decisions and detailed rules of debt purchase plan from Draghi at the european central bank meeting

Commodities had limited downside room, though, as downbeat data was twined with expectations for easing policies.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 119724mt that is down by -60mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 152.17-165.77.

Natural gas rallied +3.24% nearly four weeks high as renewed tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

US National hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Leslie could strengthen into a hurricane.

Despite of gains, prices were expected to remain under pressure amid ongoing concerns over inventory levels.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 105.18-109.38.

Aluminium gained as downbeat data was twined with expectations for easing policies.

Investors expected the ECB would introduce the long-awaited bond buying program at its meet on Thursday

Moody’s adjustment and warning added pressure on the EBC’s debt purchase plan.

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4878475mt that is down by -6475mt.

Market Weekly Outlook 03-07 September’2012

Posted on September 3, 2012 by Sree Lakshmi Reddy

The market is likely to be volatile this week.
Automobile and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveil monthly sales volume data for August 2012 from Saturday, 1 September 2012.
Market Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2012 on Monday, 3 September 2012. On Wednesday, 5 September 2012, Market Economics will unveil HSBC India Services PMI for August 2012.
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which gauges business activity at India’s factories but not utilities, fell to 52.9 in July, from 55 in June ~ its biggest one-month drop since September last year. Still, the index has remained above the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction for more than three years. Manufacturing accounts for around 15% of India’s gross domestic product.
In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly policy meeting on euro area interest rates on Thursday, 6 September 2012. The ECB slashed its interest rates to an all-time low in July. The ECB is expected to continue its easing cycle, probably as soon as in September, to help the economic recovery of recession- and crisis-ridden members of the euro zone.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel holds a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Thursday, 6 September 2012.
UK’s central bank — The Bank of England — holds its monthly meeting on interest rates on Thursday, 6 September 2012.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest.

Nifty Weekly View:

Nifty taking Support @ 50DMA. Now 50 DMA @ 5258. As per Trend line another gigantic Support at 5200. Any Close below this 5200, will Drag Nifty 200 DMA at 5120 levels.
On the Upside Bulls have a seen close above 5355 and then a close above 5400. After then can move towards 5488 and 5577 levels.
Our short term target for Nifty: The Minimum Target will be 4700+1097 = 5867.

So these levels should be noted carefully to found further Support and Resistance.

Nifty made low on 20-12-2011 @ 4531 Nifty made high on 22-02-2012 @ 5628 Total Rally is 1097 Points. 75% correction of 1097 is 822 @ 4805. Nifty may bounce from 4770 levels. The minimum Target will be 4770+1097= 5867. Only Close below 4977 will terminate above view.
Nifty weekly Range will be at 5200-5244-5288-5355-5400-5438
Weekly Resistance at 5355-5400-5488
Weekly Axle at 5288
Weekly Support at 5244-5200.

Gold Weekly View

Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 30,984.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 30,656.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 31,405 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,130.00–31,000.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 30,860.00-30,830.00 levels. Trading consistently below 30,820.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,382.00 then 30,198.00 and then finally towards the major support at 29,756.00 levels.
Resistance is observed in the range of 31,600.00-31,630.00 levels. Trading consistently above 31,630 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 31,880.00levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 32,200.00 levels.

Gold Trading levels for the week:

Trend: UP
Support at 31,130.000-30,860.00
Resistance at 31,600.00-31,800.00
Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,140.00-31,000.00 SL 30,700.00 Target 31,600.00

{Or}

Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,840.00-31,880.00 SL 32,160.00 Target 31,500.00

Silver Weekly View

Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 59,700.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 58,601.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,170.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 60,240.00-60,200.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 59,300.00-59,250.00 levels. Trading consistently below 59,240.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 58,240.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 57,670.00 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 61,880.00-61,940.00 levels. Trading consistently above 61,940.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 62,800.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 63,400.00 levels.

Silver Trading levels for the week:

Trend: Up
Support at 60,240.00-59,300.00
Resistance at 61,880.00-62,800.00
Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 60240-60140 SL 59200 Target 61300.

{Or}

Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 61940-61880 SL 62400 Target 61500-60850.

Copper Weekly View:

Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 431.15 levels initially moved higher, but found strong resistance at 432.90 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 423.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 422.50-421.50 levels and further below strong support is seen at 417.80-416.80 levels. Daily closing below 416.80 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 413 and then finally towards 408.80 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 431-433 levels. Trading consistently above 433 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 437.60 and then finally towards the major resistance at 441.10 levels.

Copper Trading levels for the week:

Trend: Side-Ways
Support at 422.50-417.80
Resistance at 431.10-437.60
Advice: Buy Copper MCX Nov Around 422.50-421.50 SL 417 Target 428-431.

Crude Weekly View:

Crude Mcx September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5363.00 levels initially moved sharply higher and as expected found good resistance at 5424.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5257.00 levels and finally closed marginally higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5295.00-5285.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5280.00 levels would lead towards the strong support at 5130.00-5110.00 levels. Daily closing below 5100.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 4990.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4893.00 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 5456.00-5466.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5470.00 levels would extend the previous week’s rally initially towards 5548.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5625.00 levels.

Crude Oil Trading levels for the week:

Trend: Up
Support at 5295.00-5130.00
Resistance at 5456.00-5548.00
Advice: Buy Crude Mcx Sep Around 5300-5290 SL 5235 Target 5365-5450.

Economic Indicators For The Week:

Date & Time	Region	Events	Period	Survey	Prior
09/03/2012 & 06:30	CH	Non-Manufacturing PMI	Aug	—	55.6
09/03/2012 & 08:00	CH	HSBC Manufacturing PMI	Aug	—	49.3
09/03/2012 & 10:30	JN	Vehicle Saies {YoY}	Aug	—	36.10%
09/03/2012 & 10:02	GE	PMI Manufacturing	Aug F	45.1	45.1
09/03/2012 & 13:30	EC	PMI Manufacturing	Aug F	45.3	45.3
09/03/2012 & 14:00	UK	PMI Manufacturing	Aug	46.1	45.4
09/04/2012 & 14:30	EC	Euro-Zone PPI {MoM}	Jul	0.20%	-0.50%
09/04/2012 & 19:30	US	ISM Manufacturing	Aug	50	48
09/04/2012 & 19:30	US	ISM Price Paid	Aug	46	39.5
09/04/2012 & 19:30	US	Construction Spending MoM	Jul	0.4%	0.4%
09/05/2012 & 02:30	US	Total Vehicle Sales	Aug	14.20M	14.05M
09/05/2012 & 02:30	US	Domestic Vehicle Sales	Aug	11.05M	11.00M
09/05/2012 & 8:00	CH	HSBC Services PMI	Aug	—	53.1
09/05/2012 &13:25	GE	PMI Services	Aug F	48.3	48.3
09/05/2012 &13:30	EC	PMI Composite	Aug F	46.6	46.6
09/05/2012 & 13:30	EC	PMI Services	Aug F	47.5	47.5
09/05/2012 & 14:30	EC	Euro-Zone Retail Sales(MoM)	Jul	-0.20%	0.10
09/05/2012 & 16:30	US	MBA Mortgage Application	31-Aug	—	-4.30%
09/05/2012 & 18:00	US	Nonfarm Productivity	2QF	1.80%	1.60%
09/05/2012 & 18:00	US	Unit Labor cost	2QF	1.40%	1.70%
09/06/2012 & 14:30	EC	Euro Zone GDP s.a.(QoQ)	2QP	-0.20%	-0.20%
09/06/2012 & 15:30	GE	Factory Orders MoM (sa)	Jul	0.30%	-1.70%
09/06/2012 & 16:30	UK	BOE ANNOUNCES RATES	6-Sep	0.50&%	0.50%
09/06/2012 & 17:15	EC	ECB Announces Interest Rates	6-Sep	0.50%	0.75%
09/06/2012 & 17:45	US	EDP Employment Change	Aug	145K	165K
09/06/2012 & 18:00	US	Continuing Claims	25-Aug	3315K	3316K
09/06/2012 & 19:30	US	ISM Non-Manf.Composite	Aug	52.5	52.6
09/07/2012 & 11:30	GE	Export SA(MoM)	Jul	-0.50%	-1.05%
09/07/2012 & 11:30	GE	Imports SA {MoM}	Jul	-0.30%	-3.00%
09/07/2012 & 11:30	GE	Current Account {Euro}	Jul	13.5B	16.5B
09/07/2012 & 11:30	GE	Trade Balance	Jul	15.3B	17.9B
09/07/2012 & 14:00	UK	Industrial Production {MoM}	Jul	1.50%	-2.50%
09/07/2012 & 14:00	UK	Manufacturing production {MoM}	Jul	1.80%	-2.90%
09/07/2012 & 15:30	GE	Industrial Production MoM {Sa}	Jul	0.00%	-0.90%
09/07/2012 & 18:00	US	Change in Non Farm Payrolls	Aug	125K	163K
09/07/2012 & 18:00	US	Change in Private Payrolls	Aug	140K	172K
09/07/2012 & 18:00	US	Change In Manufact. Payrolls	Aug	10K	25K
09/07/2012 & 18:00	US	Unemployment Rate	Aug	8.30%	8.30%
07-12 Sep	GE	Whole Sale Price Index {Mom}	Aug	—-	0.30%

Overseas Market – FII Activity for Indian Equity & Debt Market

Posted on August 7, 2012 by Sree Lakshmi Reddy

European shares closed at four months high on Monday, with shares driving gains on the back of recent U.S. economic data and hopes for fresh policy actions to help debt-market strugglers Spain and Italy.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data also lifted sentiment towards equity markets. As a result, the FTSEurofirst 300 index ended 0.4 percent higher at 1,085.79 points. Spain’s benchmark IBEX stockmarket index which was halted for several hours due to a technical glitch, rose 4.4 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 1.5 percent on expectations that any support from the ECB to lower borrowing costs will help the economy.

On the flip side, U.S. stocks surged on Monday on ECB Speculation as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan. Hopes for fresh policy actions to help debt-market strugglers Spain and Italy buoyed the market sentiment as a result Spanish and Italian notes increased, while commodities reversed declines. The nonfarm payrolls report put traders in a good mood, after four days of being in a bad mood, of the market’s best session in more than a month. Sentiment brightened further with U.S. economic data. Among the individual stocks, Knight Capital Group Inc., the firm driven to the brink of bankruptcy by trading losses last week, tumbled 24 percent.

The three main indices closed in green after sentiments were brightened by better-than-expected July job date and improving economic date. Cheering the news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21.34 points, or 0.16 percent, to 13,117.51 at the close. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 22.01 points, or 0.74 percent, to end at 2,989.91 and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.24 of a point, or 0.23 percent, to 1,394.23.

Crude oil opened the week with a 1.0 per cent gain at USD 92.30 per barrel. Natural gas also closed in positive terrain with 1 per cent gain at USD 2.91 per MMBtu as the weaker dollar gave them a boost.

Following the crude’s footsteps, Gold closed the day’s trading with 0.4 per cent gain at USD 1616.00 per ounce. However, Silver settled 0.3 per cent higher at USD 27.87 per ounce.

FII ACIVITY

Gross equity purchased stood at Rs. 1,509.60 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs. 179.00 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs. 1,341.90 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 139.60 Crore.
Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs. 167.70 Crore and Rs. 39.40.

Overseas Market View – FII Activity

Posted on August 3, 2012 by Sree Lakshmi Reddy

European shares ended Thursday’s volatile session sharply lower as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi disappointed investors who had been expecting some bold actions since his pledge last week to do ‘whatever it takes’ to defend the euro. Investors, who had pushed stocks higher before Draghi’s comments on hopes of some concrete policy support, rushed to dump equities, with the FTS Euro first 300 index closing 1.2 percent lower at 1,055.34 points, Spain’s IBEX slumping 5.2 percent and Italy’s FTSE MIB falling 4.6 percent, the biggest one-day decline in nearly four months.

On the flip side, U.S. stocks on Thursday retreated for a fourth day after the European Central Bank failed to live up to its advance billing, offering only conditional moves in tackling Europe’s debt crisis. The slide in U.S. equities followed a global rout after ECB President Mario Draghi indicated the ECB plans to unite with governments in purchasing bonds in large enough quantities to curb the euro land’s debt trouble, although he conceded Germany’s Bundes bank was not fully on board with the concept. Among the individual stocks, Knight Capital Group Inc. shares nose-dived nearly 63 per cent to USD 2.58 a piece after pegging losses at USD 440 million from a trading glitch and saying it was looking at strategic options.

The three main indices closed in red in choppy trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 92.18 points, or 0.71 percent, to 12,878.88 at the close. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10.44 points, or 0.36 percent, to end at 2,909.77 and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged down 10.32 of a point, or 0.75 percent, to 1,365.00.

Crude oil ended the session 2.0 per cent lower at USD 87.20 per barrel. Natural gas closed into negative terrain with 7.9 per cent loss at USD 2.92 per MMBtu.

Following the crude’s footsteps, Gold closed the day’s trading with 1.0 per cent loss at USD 1590.50 per ounce. Silver also settled with a 1.9 per cent loss at USD 26.99 per ounce.

On Thursday, the FIIs continued to support Indian equity and debt market as a result they turned net buyer in both the markets.

Gross equity purchased stood at Rs. 2212.10 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs. 787.00 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs. 1581.20 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 519.60 Crore.

Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs. 630.90 Crore and Rs. 267.40