Nifty Future, F&O Turnover & FII Derivative Data – 09 October’2012

The BSE Index Shuts at 18709 down 230 points from its Previous Close or -1.21%. The NSE Index Shuts at 5676 down 71 Points from its Previous Close or -1.23%.

  • Daily Chat Indicates Nifty closed below the weekly average of 5720 now bearing towards next support of monthly averages 5585-5413 of 3 months average.
  • In Friday Session Nifty daily Rsi & Cci both given sell signals and yesterday it given signal it slip towards below trend  average. Nifty still in short term uptrend but we seen and expecting correction rally only.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 8788 Contracts of Index Future, worth 228.74 cores with net OI increasing by 15070 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was down by 75 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 15070, So FII has taken shorts in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5676 and broke the previous swing low of 5740 which shows it was a fake breakout above 5740. Gap filling of 5650-5683 has started and gap of 5650 should be filled by tomorrow.
  • Nifty Future October  Open Interest is at 2.63 cores with unwinding of 0.76 Lakh in OI, shorts did profit booking in Nifty future as we are down 150 points from the high of 5855. We have been discussing steep rise in OI till 2.64 cores and expected a correction which is materializing now. Hope traders were able to exit longs.
  • Total F&O turnover was  at 1.02 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at  1.96 lakh, today we had a 77 point fall and number of contract traded are quiet less, so we can expect a bounce back if 5650 NS is not broken. PCR at 0.94 and VIX at 17.17, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a up move till 18.5-19 is on cards.
  • 6000 CE  is having highest Open Interest of 71 lakhs with fresh addition of 3.8 lakhs in OI.5800 CE Open Interest at 70 is second highest  lakhs, with fresh addition of 5.5 lakhs, and  6100 calls got unwounded today as premium moved from 8 to rs 3 .5400-6100 CE saw an unwinding of added 20 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PE is having highest Open Interest of 60 lakhs with addition of 6.5 lakhs in OI,Bulls were unable to defend  5700 and unwounded 4.4 lakhs. 5400-6100 PE added just 5 lakhs in Open Interest. As discussed yesterday buying happening in 5800 PE premium moved from 92 to 133
  • FII bought 563.84 cores and DII sold 778 cores in cash segment, INR closed at  52.54. FII sold 433 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5683 (For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5751 Nifty Future (For Positional Traders).
  • 5 DMA at 5732
  • 20 DMA at 5601
  • 50 DMA at 5412
  • 200 DMA at 5203
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 61 Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5688 and above the level marks the track point at 5711 later zipper levels at 58755marks.

Nifty Support at It has the First support close to the level 5644 and below the level marks the track point at 5622 later zipper levels at 5600 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 09 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5711 sl 5688 Tgt 5730-5750 {Or} Sell Below 5666 sl 5688 Tgt 5644-5622

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 09 Oct’2012:

Buy Above 11445 sl 11400 Tgt 11488-11433 {Or} Sell Below 11355 sl 11400 Tgt 11311-11266

Market Outlook – Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data for 31 August’2012

As per market outlook, the BSE Index put up the lid at 17542 up 51 points or +0.29% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5315 up 27 points or +0.52% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.4% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.3% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 716 against declines of 706 on the NSE.

The market traded volatile in yesterday’s ttrade and closed with moderate gains.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Dlf, Idfc, Hindalco and Jp Assosiate.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Tata Steel, Gail, Jindal Steel and Bpcl.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 2041 Contracts of Index Future, worth 6 cores with net OI decreasing by 19355 contracts.
  • Since Nifty Future was down by 50 points and OI has decreased by 19355, FII have booked profit in longs, as the total OI is down by 19K and sell figure is just 6 cores meaning they sold longs and have shorted partially.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5288 after making the low of 5283, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5325 got broken on Nifty. Ahead of expiry breaking of 5300 is a danger for bulls as expiry pressure can bring a swift fall and gap filling till 5216 can take place.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5309 and 5329 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5266 and 5243 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5329 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 1.6 cores with an unwinding  of 41 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.53 lakhs so 36 lakhs  got roll overed Longs are getting roll overed to next series.
  • Whole F&O turnover was 1.70 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.53 lakh, Breadth was terrible and stocks were falling like nine pins.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 14.6 lakhs with total OI now standing at 49 lakhs. 5300 CE has premium of Rs 15 and Call writers have added 14.6 lakhs OI, so 5300 will be immediate resistance for market tomorrow.
  • 5300 PE sheded 19 lakh in OI and having the OI at 76 lakhs put writers ran for cover as Nifty broke and closed below 5300.5200 PE is next support at per Option table as we have gap from 5266-5219 so do not be surprised if we see 5219 tomorrow. As of now 5200 is strong base from market. FII have sold 771 cores in Options suggesting selling in Put options they were holding as hedge, Are we near reversal?
  • FII bought 143 cores and DII sold239 cores in cash segment. INR closed at 55.67. FII were again sellers of 579 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is @ 5299, Trend Changer is @ 5327,  Nifty were consolidating near 5327-5332 range before falling and we got early indication of fall as we traded 2 hours below 5327. For tomorrow this level will be tough resistance to crack. (Beyond this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Beneath this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5335
  • 20 DMA at 5333
  • 50 DMA at 5256
  • 200 DMA at 5120
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 38 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 41. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5333 and above the level marks the track point at 5355 later zipper levels at 5400 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5288 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5266 later dipping levels near 5244 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 30 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5333 sl 5311 Tgt 5355-5400 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5288 sl 5311 Tgt 5266-5244.

Overseas Market – FII Activity for Indian Equity & Debt Market

  • European shares closed at four months high on Monday, with shares driving gains on the back of recent U.S. economic data and hopes for fresh policy actions to help debt-market strugglers Spain and Italy.
  • Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data also lifted sentiment towards equity markets. As a result, the FTSEurofirst 300 index ended 0.4 percent higher at 1,085.79 points. Spain’s benchmark IBEX stockmarket index which was halted for several hours due to a technical glitch, rose 4.4 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 1.5 percent on expectations that any support from the ECB to lower borrowing costs will help the economy.
  • On the flip side, U.S. stocks surged on Monday on ECB Speculation as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan. Hopes for fresh policy actions to help debt-market strugglers Spain and Italy buoyed the market sentiment as a result Spanish and Italian notes increased, while commodities reversed declines. The nonfarm payrolls report put traders in a good mood, after four days of being in a bad mood, of the market’s best session in more than a month. Sentiment brightened further with U.S. economic data. Among the individual stocks, Knight Capital Group Inc., the firm driven to the brink of bankruptcy by trading losses last week, tumbled 24 percent.
  • The three main indices closed in green after sentiments were brightened by better-than-expected July job date and improving economic date. Cheering the news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21.34 points, or 0.16 percent, to 13,117.51 at the close. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 22.01 points, or 0.74 percent, to end at 2,989.91 and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.24 of a point, or 0.23 percent, to 1,394.23.
  • Crude oil opened the week with a 1.0 per cent gain at USD 92.30 per barrel. Natural gas also closed in positive terrain with 1 per cent gain at USD 2.91 per MMBtu as the weaker dollar gave them a boost.
  • Following the crude’s footsteps, Gold closed the day’s trading with 0.4 per cent gain at USD 1616.00 per ounce. However, Silver settled 0.3 per cent higher at USD 27.87 per ounce.


    • On Monday, the FIIs continued to support Indian equity and debt market.
  • Gross equity purchased stood at Rs. 1,509.60 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs. 179.00 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs. 1,341.90 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 139.60 Crore.
  • Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs. 167.70 Crore and Rs. 39.40.