Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 28 August’2012

The Bse Index put down the lid at 17679 down 104 points or -0.59% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5350 down 36 points or -0.68% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.8% and BSE Small cap index was down 1% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 418 against declines of 1021 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate losses today with realty, banking and capital goods being the biggest losers.

Top Nse India Gainers were: M7M, Power Grid, Cairn and Hindunilvr.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Jindal Stee, Pnb, Jp Assosiate and Idfc.

Market Signs:

  • HCL Infosystems Q4 cons net loss at Rs.2 cr Vs profit of Rs.23 cr (QoQ).
  • S Mobility Q1 cons net loss at Rs.5.2 cr Vs loss of Rs.20 cr (QoQ); cons net sales at Rs.511.3 cr Vs Rs.553.3 cr (QoQ).
  • Jain Irrigation board will meet today to approve issue of securities.
  • Trent has issued 5.26 lakh shares to Tata Sons subsidiaries at Rs 980/share on preference basis.
  • Welspun Corp has raised Rs 200 cr via NCD (non convertible debentures) issue.
  • The board members of Bajaj FinServ will meet to consider the rights issue on August 29.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 1302 cr order from Petroleum Development Oman.
  • MoS, Oil says cannot hike diesel price due to inflation.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 749 cr order from ONGC for 4 Wellhead platforms.
  • L&T signs share sale and purchase agreement with Japan’s Toshiba Machine Co to sell its entire stake in L&T Plastics Machinery Ltd.
  • Supreme Court has sought pollution board’s report on Sterlite’s Tuticorin Plant by September-end.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 13648 Contracts of Index Future, worth 384 cores with net OI increasing by 13010 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 40 points and OI has increased by 13010, FII are booking profits in longs. No shorts have been created as per data analyzed.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5350 after making the low of 5346 near to our 1 tgt of 5341, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they were unable to close nifty above 5400, We have discussed the resistance at 5401 and Nifty made a high of 5399 today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5366 and 5401 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5341 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5313 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.3 cores with an unwinding of 18 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 60 lakhs so 18 lakhs got roll overed and 7 lakh extra addition.
  • Total Future & Option turnover was 1.19 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 1.89  lakh,Cash volumes were very dismissal at 5051 now this signify the fall was in technical in nature no major selling has happened today. So tomorrow we can see a reverse up move if 5341 is not broken. In past, whenever Nifty has formed a low near the support with falling volumes (as compared to previous sessions) we observed minor bottom reversal pattern. Today’s decline with falling volume (compared to Friday) could be a sign of possible reversal.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.7 lakhs with total OI now standing at 29 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 10 lakhs and total OI stands at 66 lakhs so 5400 CE writers, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 1.05 core lakhs,so 5400 is the ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE added 3.2 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.08 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 second day running, 5400 PE saw an huge unwinding, as Expiry is 3 trading session away. Looking at huge unwinding i accept nifty to come near 5400 tomorrow.
  • FII bought 200 cores and DII sold 500 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.7. FII has bought 8046 Cr in cash market in August series.FII sold 551 of stock futures also
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5347, Trend Changer at 5326 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5397
  • 20 DMA at 5313
  • 50 DMA at 5243
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 40 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 56. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5333 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5311 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 28 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5377 sl 5355 Tgt 5399-5422 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5333 sl 5355 Tgt 5311-5288.