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Stock Market Outlook for 26 September’2012 – Nifty, FII Derivative Data

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The BSE Index Shuts at 18,695 up 21 points from its Previous Close or +0.11%. The NSE Index Shuts at 5674 up +5 Points from its Previous Close or +0.08%.

  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Kotak Bank, Bhel, Hindunilvr and Cipla.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Jindal Steel, Cairn, Jp Ass and Ster.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 21938 Contracts of Index Future, worth 644.96 cores  with net OI increasing by Huge 96896 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was up by 1 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 96896, FII created fresh longs Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Also do note FII are basically doing lot of day trading in Index futures and rolling over their positions to next series.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5674 after making a high of 5703 and unable to break 5720 for 2 day, Bulls are in control of market as they have defended 5648 as Nifty Spot made low of 5652 and bounced back. After big rise on Friday we had another session of consolidation today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5700 and 5720 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5648 and 5618 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5570 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty  Future September  Open Interest is at 1.92 cores with a unwinding  of 23 Lakh in OI, and all 23 lakhs got rollover to October Series. Rollovers have started in Nifty Futures with addition of 46 lakhs in October series. Fresh longs are created in October series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.91 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.90 lakh. PCR at 0.99 and VIX tanked 10% at 17.11.
  • 5800 CE is having highest Open Interest of 89 lakhs with fresh addition of 13 lakhs in OI.5700 CE Open Interest at 68 is second highest  lakhs, with unwinding of 2 lakhs. Immediate support is at 5648 as 5600 CE sheded another 4 lakhs as per Open Interest table.  5300-5900 CE unwounded just 0.18 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PE unwounded 1.6 lakh in Open Interest total OI at 77 Lakhs,Bulls want to make  5600 as base for September Series.5700 PE added 4 lakhs in OI so we should see some good move ie. Break below 5648 or break above 5720 tomorrow. 5300-5900 PE unwounded 21 lakhs in Open Interest as major unwinding coming from 5500 PE. FII are booking profits in Puts written by them.FII  bought 5845 cores do note it includes the Bulk deal in Bayer Corp science and Cairn India  and DII  sold 1374 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 4 months high at 53.36 . FII sold 610 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5452, Trend Changer at 5677 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5638
  • 20 DMA at 5426
  • 50 DMA at 5329
  • 200 DMA at 5165
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 76 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 72. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5688 and above the level marks the track point at 5733 later zipper levels at 5755 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5666 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5644 later dipping levels near 5622 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 26 Sep’2012:

Buy above 5711 sl 5688 Tgt 5733-5755 {Or} Sell Below 5666 sl 5688 Tgt 5644-5622.

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 26 Sep’2012:

Buy above 11511 sl 11466 Tgt 11555-11600 {Or} Sell below 11422 sl 11646 Tgt 11377-11333.

Nifty out Look & FII Derivative Data – 25 September’2012

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The Bse Index Shuts at 18,674 down – 80 Points from its Previous Close or -0.42%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5670 down by -22 Points from its Previous Close or -0.38%.

  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Bhel,  Jindal Steel, Maruti and M&M.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Hdfc, Ongc, Sail and Itc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 5167 Contracts of Index Future, worth 129.87 cores with net OI increasing by Huge 74249 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 25 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 30452, FII have started booking profits on Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5670 after making a high of 5710 and unable to break 5720, Bulls are in control of market and traders are getting overconfidence on taking longs which should be treated as caution whenever over optimism comes in market time to be cautious .Stock markets moves in direction which give maximum pain to traders to short term traders. So trade with strict stoploss as we are approaching expiry. After big rise on Friday we had a session of consolidation today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5700 and 5720which needs to be watched closely, Support now exists at 5648 and 5618 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5547 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future September Open Interest is at 2.15 cores with a unwinding of 6.8 Lakh in OI, profit booking in longs is seen in Nifty future .Rollovers have started in NIfty Futures with addition of 21 lakhs in October series. Fresh longs are created in October series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.71 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.22 lakh. PCR at 0.95 and VIX   at 18.83.
  • 5800 CE is having highest Open Interest of 76 lakhs with fresh addition of 15 lakhs in OI.5700 CE Open Interest at 70  lakhs, with addition of 3 lakhs. Immediate support is at 5648 as 5600 CE sheded 3 lakhs as per Open Interest table.  5300-5900 CE added 12 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PE added 3 lakh in Open Interest total OI at 78 Lakhs, Bulls want to make  5600 as base for September Series. 5300-5900 PE added 5.7 lakhs in Open Interest so option activity shows Bulls in wait and watch mode.
  • FII bought 1585 cores and DII  sold 1156 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 4 months high at 53.48  FII sold 387 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5440, Trend Changer at 5680 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5625
  • 20 DMA at 5410
  • 50 DMA at 5320
  • 200 DMA at 5162
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 76 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 72. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5688 and above the level marks the track point at 5733 later zipper levels at 5755 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5666 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5644 later dipping levels near 5622 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 25 Sep’2012:

Buy above 5711 sl 5688 Tgt 5733-5755 {Or} Sell Below 5666 sl 5688 Tgt 5644-5622.

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 25 Sep’2012:

Buy above 11466 sl 11422 Tgt 11555-11644 {Or} Sell below 11377 sl 1422 Tgt 11333-11288.

Nifty out Look & FII Derivative Data – 21 September’2012

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The Bse Index Shuts at 18,350 down – 147 Points from its Previous Close or -0.79%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5555 down by -46 Points from its Previous Close or -0.82%.

  • Top Nse India Gainers were: M&M Fin Services, Hind Petrol, Sjvn Ltd and Indian Bulls Real Estate.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Ttk Prestige, Gmr Infra, Lanco Infra and Jay Prakash Power.
  • Technical correction is in place giving the breathing space to indicator and cooling off the steam of stocks. Consolidation before the next rally will help market to break the swing high of 5652 and March towards 5740. Expiry is just 5 days ahead.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 5957 Contracts of Index Future, worth 102.69 cores  with net OI decreasing by 33817 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 41 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 33817, FII have done profit booking in shorts which they created on Tuesday and coupled with profit booking in longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5554.25, after opening gap down making low of 5537 near our support of 5527 as mentioned, rest of day was consolidating in the range of 5581-5550.As we have said before Consolidation will be name of game for few days and same is happening in market We also have a small gap from 5581-5600 which will be filled eventually.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5581 and 5602 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5537 and 5520 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5485 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future September Open Interest is at 2.18 cores with a fresh addition of 2.4 Lakh in OI, shorts addition is seen in Nifty future.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.26 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.93 lakh. PCR at 1.17 and VIX jumped to 18.62.
  • 5700 CE  is having highest Open Interest of 73 lakhs with addition of 2.5 lakhs in OI Calls were written at 5700 as premium came down from 21 to 10 in single session. .5600 CE Open Interest at 69 lakhs, with addition of 6.3 lakhs. Immediate resistance is at 5600 as per Open Interest table. 5200-5800 CE added 2.4 lakhs in Open Interest, Bears gaining some strength at higher levels.FII Options OI saw an reduction of 4.3 lakhs means big move is round the corner.
  • 5500 PE added 3.9 lakh in Open Interest total OI at 75 Lakhs, Bulls want to make  5500 as base for September Series.5600 PE saw an unwinding of 5.4 lakhs in Open Interest ,so puts written by bulls ran for cover today. 5200-5800 PE unwounded 8.8 lakhs in Open Interest bulls getting jittery at higher levels. Any close below 5554 on Nifty Spot will favor bears in extreme short term (This is what we discussed yesterday and todays close 5554.75
  • FII sold 73 cores and DII sold 331 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 54.38. FII sold 428 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5542, Trend Changer at 5405 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5555
  • 20 DMA at 5382
  • 50 DMA at 5306
  • 200 DMA at 5156
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 68 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 67. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5577 and above the level marks the track point at 5600 later zipper levels at 5622 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5533 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5511 later dipping levels near 5488 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 21 Sep’2012:

Buy above 5577 sl 5555 Tgt 5600-5622 {Or} Sell Below 5333 sl 5555 Tgt 5511-5488.

Bank Nifty Momentum Call for 21 Sep’2012:

Buy above 10977 sl 10933 Tgt 11066-11115 {Or} Sell below 10888 sl 110933 Tgt 10844-10800.

Nifty Future & FII Derivative Data – 13 September’2012

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  • Nifty Future made a fresh September series high today at 5453. IIP data came at 0.1 which is as per market expectation. Another important Global event German Court gave in favor of using ESM and Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund with Conditions so nothing is stopping Bulls. Always remember hot money chase the momentum and in liquidity driven rally fundamental will take the back seat. So do not waste your time in finding top and bottom, Stay with trend and mint money.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Tata Motors, LT, Jindal Steel and Tata Steel.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Siemens, Cipla, Ntpc and Bhel.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 18249 Contracts of Index Future, worth 437.39 cores  with net OI increasing by 13123 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 42 points and OI has increased by 13123, FII have imitated fresh long in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future. Momentum is on higher side and weakness is still not present in Nifty Future.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5431 after making a high of 5436. Sensex has made a fresh 7 month high ie. 18012 so now its Nifty turn to break 5450.We have big gap from 5217-5309 formed on Friday and it’s been 5 days Bulls are able to defend the higher levels, Nifty continue to march higher after Monday consolidation. Also be noted Nifty has given highest close of 5331 on closing basis after it made the low of 4770
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5450 and 5462 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5424 and 5395 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5339 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.84 cores with a fresh addition of 5.5 Lakh in OI, long addition is seen in Nifty future.
  • Total F&O turnover was  1.16 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at  2.18  lakh.PCR at 1.03 and VIX 15.03.Cash volumes show a jumped of 10% showing rise is backed by deliveries in Stocks.
  • 5600 CE  is having highest OI of 83 lakhs with an addition of 6 lakhs in OI.5500 CE is having second highest OI at  OI at 78  lakhs, Immediate resistance is at 5500 CE. 5000-5600 CE saw an unwinding of 2.6 lakhs in OI. So Bulls are all over the place.
  • 5300 PE added another 9 lakhs so 5300  and 5400 PE added huge 14 lakh, Bulls want to make the 5400 as base for the rest of September series.5000-5600 PE added  huge 29 lakhs in Open Interest so bulls are cementing ground for 5400 tomorrow. Now Bulls need to defend the 5400 base for rest of week.
  • FII bought 451 cores and DII sold 55.76 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 55.3. FII has bought 2ooo cores in cash market.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5384, Trend Changer at 5324 NF. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5353
  • 20 DMA at 5341
  • 50 DMA at 5281
  • 200 DMA at 5138
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 80 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 64. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zipper levels at 5488 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5422 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5400 later dipping levels near 5377 marks.

Nifty Future Call for 13 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Momentum Call – Buy above 5466 sl 5444 Tgt 5488-5511 {Or} Sell Below 5422 sl 5444 Tgt 5400-5377.

Bank Nifty Momentum Call for 13 Sep’2012:

Buy above 10266 sl 10222 Tgt 10311-10355 {Or} Sell below 10177 sl 10222 Tgt 10133-10088.

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 04 September’2012

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  • The Bse Index put up the lid at 17384 down 45 points or -0.26% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5254, down 5 points or -0.09% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 780 against declines of 635 on the NSE.
  • The stock markets closed with moderate declines today with realty being the most awful performer.
  • PMI data Purchasing Manufacturing Index was released for European countries and India Summing the data Indicates 80% Of the World Is Now in Contraction. Chinese stock market last week made 3 year low, we always say stock market discounts news well in advance and on Sunday we got the news Chinese PMI contracted first time in 9 months. Never fight the market and flow with the trend is the general hypothesis which has been proven correct before, today and in future also.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Ranbaxy, Coal India,Baja-Auto and Maruti.
  • Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sail, Tata Poer, Jindal Steel and Idfc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 6935 Contracts of Index Future, worth 190 cores with net OI decreasing by 6289 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 8 points and OI has decreased by 6289,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series. So FII have been reducing the long exposure in Index future and shorting stock futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5254 after making the higher low of 5243, but bulls were disappointed as Nifty closed below crucial level of 5260. Only we have been advocating Nifty is in Sell on Rise mode which proved again today as Nifty used the weekend development on GAAR issue to open up but selling resumed at higher levels and closed near the lows of the day.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5295 and 5315 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5238 and 5220 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5335 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.97 cores with an addition of 1.47 Lakh in OI, So shorts have started entering the system. Rollover range for September Series comes at 5400-5290. We have closed below 5290 today so we can see follow up action tomorrow bears pressing more on downside.
  • Total F&O turnover was highest ever to 0.76 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.92 lakh. Cash volumes were dismissal today.
  • 5400 CE is having highest OI of 57 lakhs with an addition of 9.5 lakhs in OI. 4900-5600 CE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • 5200 PE added 4.8 lakh in OI and having the highest  OI at 63 lakhs so 5200 is firm base at the starting of September series,4900 PE added 10 lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of 1117 cores in Index Options, so smart money is Buying 4900 PE.4900-5600 PE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • FII  sold 54 cores and DII  sold 160 cores in cash segment, Both FII and DII were sellers in cash segment second day in a row.INR closed at 55.52 . FII were again sellers of 254 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is at 5239, Trend Changer at 5303 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5290
  • 20 DMA at 5335
  • 50 DMA at 5260
  • 200 DMA at 51210
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 24 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5266 and above the level marks the track point at 5288 later zipper levels at 5311 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5244 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5222 later dipping levels near 5200 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 04 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Call – Buy above 5288 sl 5266 Tgt 5311-5333 {Or} Sell Below 5266 sl 5266 Tgt 5244-5222.

Nifty out Look, FII Derivative Data, Nifty Future Momentum Call – 29 August’2012

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The Bse Index put down the lid at 17632 down 47 points or -0.27% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5335 down 15 points or -0.29% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Small cap index was down 1.4% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 335 against declines of 1096 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate declines today with metal taking a severe beating.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Power Grid, Tcs, Asian Paints and Dr. Reddy.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Ster, Jindal Steel, Jp  Assosiates and Hindalco.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 15439 Contracts of Index Future, worth 433 cores with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 16 points and OI has increased by 69021, FII have created fresh longs in index futures ahead of expiry. FII buying is quiet visible even though mid caps and small cap Index were down by 1.1.5% NF was down by just 16 points.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5335 after making the low of 5313; Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5341 got broken on Nifty. Bears were unable to break the crucial support of 5313 which also is the low for today, shows next 2 days Bulls can be on roar if 5300 is not broken tomorrow.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5361 and 5392 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5313 and 5294 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5325 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.0 cores with an unwinding of 32 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollover to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.16 lakhs so 32 lakhs got rollover and 24 lakh extra addition in OI. Longs are getting rollover to next series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.73 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.66 lakh, Volumes were quiet high today looking at brutal fall we have seen in mid caps stocks Adani, JIndals.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 5 lakhs with total OI now standing at 34 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 18 lakhs and total OI stands at 85 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are assuming Nifty will expire below 5400 and they can eat the whole premium, 5400 is immediate ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE sheded 12 lakh in OI and having the OI at 95 lakhs which suggests traders are getting little jittery that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 third day running,  and Put writers got jittery as Nifty came near 5313. 5300 seems a strong base and 5400 strong resistance for next 2 days.FII net sold 877 cores in Options suggesting profit booking in Put option as they saw a huge unwinding of 25 lakhs basically in 5300 and 5400 PE.
  • FII bought 93 cores and DII sold 314 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.6. FII were again sellers of 551 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5328, Trend Changer at 5327 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5380
  • 20 DMA at 5325
  • 50 DMA at 5247
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 434 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 54. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5355 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 29 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5355 sl 5333 Tgt 5400-5444{Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5311 sl 5333 Tgt 5288-5266.