Commodities Out Look 11 Sep’2012

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31747-32131.

Gold settled flat on profit booking after disappointing U.S. payrolls data boosted hopes that FED could unveil new stimulus

Gold imports by China from Hong Kong rose to 75,842 kilograms (about 76 metric tons) in July

Holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose to an all-time high of 72.492 million ounces.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 63277-64987.

Silver prices ended with gains tracking gains in base metals and crude prices

Downbeat US nonfarm payrolls in August also pushed hopes for QE3 by Fed in its interest rate meeting this Wednesday

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 69.32 tonnes to 9803.55 tonnes.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5259-5387.

Crude gains as supportive expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will act to stimulate the economy supported prices

Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said that the recent rise in oil prices is not due to any lack of supply

U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week, with U.S. Gulf Coast oil production and imports still reeling after Hurricane Isaac

Crude is holding with a support at 5259 and resistance will be likely at 5387.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 444.6-459.

Copper rose driven by the increased likelihood of more economic stimulus in China and the United States

China’s August copper imports fell 2.9% from the previous month

The Chinese data “highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities”.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 214650mt that is down by -1300mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 106.78-112.88.

Zinc gains following their global counterparts as hopes of monetary stimulus from China and US firmed sentiments.

China’s industrial production rose 8.9% in August from a year earlier, lower than July’s 9.2%,

Downbeat US nonfarm payrolls in August also pushed hopes for QE3 by Fed in its interest rate meeting this Wednesday

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 938275mt that is down by -3925mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel prices ended with gains as risk appetite grew amid stimulus from the US and the EU

The growing expectation over QE3 after disappointing nonfarm data and ECB’s bond-buying plan boosted confidence

German Constitutional Court’s decision on whether or not grant ESM is a risk window this week.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 120816mt that is down by  -264mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Natural Gas trading range for the day is 145.83-155.83.

Natural gas ended higher despite of forecasts for cooler temperatures

Also supportive was the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac, which shut much of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Any significant gains were likely to be capped amid ongoing concerns over bloated U.S. inventory levels.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 110.17-115.17.

Aluminium ended higher as raising expectations for policy easing by the People’s Bank of China supported prices

China’s imports unexpectedly dropped 2.6% YoY in August while exports grew only 2.7% YoY, both missing forecasts

Downbeat US nonfarm payrolls in August also pushed hopes for QE3 by Fed in its interest rate meeting this Wednesday

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4869925mt that is down by -1500mt..

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1356.1-1383.5.

Menthaoil spot is at 1522/-.Spot market is down by Rs.16/-.

Menthaoil dropped on profit booking tracking weakness in spot market demand.

Delhi government slaps ban on all gutka products

The total arrivals of mentha oil stood steady at 600-650 drums.

TODAY’S COMMODITY ADVICE:

  • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 64140 SL 63940 TGT 64320-64560-64720.
  • BUY GOLD MCX OCT ABOVE 31950 SL 31870 TGT 31990-32035-32095.
  • BUY NATURAL GAS SEPT ABOVE 153.50 SL 150.50 TGT 155.20-157.50-159.

Commodity Market Outlook 10 Sep’2012 for Metals, Chana, Oil & Natural Gas Trading

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31814-32016.

Gold dropped on profit booking after hitting all time high as tepid U.S. jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing

Growing hope for monetary stimulus in Europe and the United States, investors boosted holdings of bullion

Gold prices had roared to record highs on the back of the Fed’s past accommodative measures.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 63546-64326.

Silver still looking firm as last week’s US jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing by FED

Bullion outperformed the euro, which hit four-month highs against the dollar, and the broader market.

U.S. jobs growth slowed sharply in August, setting the stage for the Fed to pump additional money

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56833, with intraday support seen at 63546 and resistance at 64326.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5298-5332.

Crude rose after disappointing U.S. August jobs report weakened dollar and bolstered expectations for stimulus

The possibility that strategic oil reserves may be released by the United States hemmed in oil prices

U.S. regulators said 36.35 percent of daily oil production in U.S.-regulated areas of Gulf of Mexico remained shut

Crude is holding with a support at 5298 and resistance will be likely at 5332.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 443.6-452.6.

Copper rose driven by stimulus hopes in US and China’s approval of a multibillion dollar infrastructure program

Gains were fueled on investor bets of a healthier year-end demand outlook from China and another round of bond buybacks

Additional support came from the currency market, where the euro climbed on the prospects of more bond buying

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215950mt that is up by 2725mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 107.07-109.07.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as market was boosted by many positive reports.

US Department of Labor announced seasonally adjusted US nonfarm employment payrolls were lower than expected

Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 3126 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 942200mt that is down by  -3050mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 904.4-916.

Nickel settled flat up by 0.08% at 910 tracking Friday’s rally in LME nickel after release of nonfarm data from US

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

The US dollar fell by over 1% after the data release, and base metal prices rallied across the board

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121080mt that is down by -72mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 146.57-149.97.

Natural gas ended lower as milder autumn weather was expected to curb any late-season demand for cooling

Shut-in gas from Hurricane Isaac has also been returning to service over the past few days

Shut-in offshore Gulf of Mexico production from Isaac curbed inventory build and should do same to next injection

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 146.57 and resistance will be likely at 149.97.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 110.35-111.85.

Aluminium settled 0.54% up boosted by hopes for economic stimulus in the world’s leading economies

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

Aluminium weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 11777 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4871425mt that is up by 5025mt.

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1350.1-1410.3.

Menthaoil spot is at 1538/-.Spot market is down by Rs.8/-.

Mentha oil ended lower on profit booking after prices gained buoyed by firm trend at the spot market

Higher sowing activities due to the high rates obtained by farmers last year resulted in higher production

Better production prospects have been keeping overall sentiments weak.

CHANA:

Chana trading range for the day is 4802-4894.

Chana settled flat as improved rains boosted hopes of better sowing and aided growth of the kharif pulses.

Farmers completed sowing of kharif pulses on 9.77 million hectares by Aug. 30, down from 10.42 million hectares

NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks dropped by 217 tonnes to 50889 tonnes.

In Delhi spot market, chana fell down by -49.05 rupee to end at 4838.45 rupee per 100 Kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13515-14275.

Jeera gained as thin supplies in the spot market supported buying though rains in Gujarat state limited upside

Indian jeera exports rise by 40 pc in quantity due to Syria unrest

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 106 tonnes to 10519 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera dropped -108.65 rupees to end at 14905 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5523-5943.

Turmeric fell due to a drop in overseas enquiries and a revival in rains that could help improve yield

Prospects of pick-up in sowing in major producing areas amid heavy rainfall also weighed on prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 1 tonnes to 10252 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5582.4 rupees dropped by -6.35 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY CALL:

  • SELL NATURAL GAS MCX SEPT BELOW 147 SL 149.50 TGT 145.50-144.25-142.50.
  • BUY GOLD MCX OCT ABOVE 31950 SL 31870 TGT 31990-32035-32095.
  • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 64100 SL 63880 TGT 64320-64560-64720.
  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 448.50 SL 445 TGT 450.20-452.80-454