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Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 10 October’2012

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The Bse Index Shuts at 18794 up 85 points from its Previous Close or +0.45%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5705 up 29 Points from its Previous Close or +0.50%.

  • Daily Chart Indicates Nifty closed 5690 which suggest reversal signal. On daily chart Rsi & Cci given reversal buy signal while macd is at down side break out. Trend and momentum is bullish on end of day chart for Nifty.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 2375 Contracts of Index Future, worth -6.88 cores with net OI increasing by 8405 contracts. As FII were buyers but net amount came as negative which means FII sold in Opening and bought at the far end of session. Consider the following example Sell 9 unit at Rs 7 and Buy 10 Unit at 6 so net units comes as 1 and value comes to Rs-4.
  • Nifty Future was up by 22 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 8405, so FII have booked profits in shorts in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Fresh longs have not been created as nifty is moving in sideways zone after big rally from 5200-5800.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5705 after making a high of 5729 and unable to move above the previous swing low of 5740 which shows it was a fake breakout above 5740. Gap filling of 5650-5683 has started and gap of 5650 did not got filled today, but should be filled in this week as per gap theory.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5715 and 5730 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5678 and 5650 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5752 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.62 cores with unwinding of 0.30 Lakh in OI, Shorts did profit booking in Nifty future.
  • F&O turnover was at 1.12 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.17 lakh, PCR at 1.04 and VIX at 16.80, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a up move till 18.5-19 is on cards.
  • 5800 CALL  is having highest Open Interest of 73 lakhs with fresh addition of 3.1 lakhs in OI and Premium at 41.6000 CE Open Interest at 70 is second highest  lakhs,  and  6100 calls got unwounded today as premium moved from 8 to rs 2 .5400-6100 CE  added 5.9 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PUT is having highest Open Interest of 64 lakhs with addition of 3.2 lakhs in OI and premium at 31.5, Bulls were just able to defend 5700 with addition of 2.9 lakhs. 5400-6100 PE added 8.3 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 613.98 cores and DII sold 430.60 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 52.54.FII sold 87 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5698(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5748 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). We have done 2 successful trades in past 2 days with trend changer level each 50 points..
  • 5 DMA at 5729
  • 20 DMA at 5619
  • 50 DMA at 5424
  • 200 DMA at 5209
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 52 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 63 Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5711 and above the level marks the track point at 5733 later zipper levels at 5755 marks.

Nifty Support at It has the First support close to the level 5688 and below the level marks the track point at 5666 later zipper levels at 5622 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 10 Oct’2012:

Buy Nifty Future above 5733 sl 5711 Tgt 5755-5777 {Or} Sell Below 5711 sl 5733 Tgt 5688-5666

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 10 Oct’2012:

Buy Above 11535 sl 11488 Tgt 1575-11625 {Or} Sell Below 11444 sl 11488 Tgt 11355-11266

Nifty out Look, FII Derivative Data, Nifty Future Momentum Call – 29 August’2012

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The Bse Index put down the lid at 17632 down 47 points or -0.27% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5335 down 15 points or -0.29% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Small cap index was down 1.4% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 335 against declines of 1096 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate declines today with metal taking a severe beating.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Power Grid, Tcs, Asian Paints and Dr. Reddy.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Ster, Jindal Steel, Jp  Assosiates and Hindalco.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 15439 Contracts of Index Future, worth 433 cores with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 16 points and OI has increased by 69021, FII have created fresh longs in index futures ahead of expiry. FII buying is quiet visible even though mid caps and small cap Index were down by 1.1.5% NF was down by just 16 points.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5335 after making the low of 5313; Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5341 got broken on Nifty. Bears were unable to break the crucial support of 5313 which also is the low for today, shows next 2 days Bulls can be on roar if 5300 is not broken tomorrow.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5361 and 5392 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5313 and 5294 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5325 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.0 cores with an unwinding of 32 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollover to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.16 lakhs so 32 lakhs got rollover and 24 lakh extra addition in OI. Longs are getting rollover to next series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.73 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.66 lakh, Volumes were quiet high today looking at brutal fall we have seen in mid caps stocks Adani, JIndals.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 5 lakhs with total OI now standing at 34 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 18 lakhs and total OI stands at 85 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are assuming Nifty will expire below 5400 and they can eat the whole premium, 5400 is immediate ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE sheded 12 lakh in OI and having the OI at 95 lakhs which suggests traders are getting little jittery that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 third day running,  and Put writers got jittery as Nifty came near 5313. 5300 seems a strong base and 5400 strong resistance for next 2 days.FII net sold 877 cores in Options suggesting profit booking in Put option as they saw a huge unwinding of 25 lakhs basically in 5300 and 5400 PE.
  • FII bought 93 cores and DII sold 314 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.6. FII were again sellers of 551 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5328, Trend Changer at 5327 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5380
  • 20 DMA at 5325
  • 50 DMA at 5247
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 434 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 54. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5355 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 29 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5355 sl 5333 Tgt 5400-5444{Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5311 sl 5333 Tgt 5288-5266.