The BSE Index Shuts at 18,695 up 21 points from its Previous Close or +0.11%. The NSE Index Shuts at 5674 up +5 Points from its Previous Close or +0.08%.
Top Nse India Gainers were: Kotak Bank, Bhel, Hindunilvr and Cipla.
Top Nse India Losers Were: Jindal Steel, Cairn, Jp Ass and Ster.
FII Derivative Data:
FII bought 21938 Contracts of Index Future, worth 644.96 cores with net OI increasing by Huge 96896 contracts.
Nifty Future was up by 1 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 96896, FII created fresh longs Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Also do note FII are basically doing lot of day trading in Index futures and rolling over their positions to next series.
Nifty Spot closed at 5674 after making a high of 5703 and unable to break 5720 for 2 day, Bulls are in control of market as they have defended 5648 as Nifty Spot made low of 5652 and bounced back. After big rise on Friday we had another session of consolidation today.
Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5700 and 5720 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5648 and 5618 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5570 is not broken on closing basis.
Nifty Future September Open Interest is at 1.92 cores with a unwinding of 23 Lakh in OI, and all 23 lakhs got rollover to October Series. Rollovers have started in Nifty Futures with addition of 46 lakhs in October series. Fresh longs are created in October series.
Total F&O turnover was 1.91 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.90 lakh. PCR at 0.99 and VIX tanked 10% at 17.11.
5800 CE is having highest Open Interest of 89 lakhs with fresh addition of 13 lakhs in OI.5700 CE Open Interest at 68 is second highest lakhs, with unwinding of 2 lakhs. Immediate support is at 5648 as 5600 CE sheded another 4 lakhs as per Open Interest table. 5300-5900 CE unwounded just 0.18 lakhs in Open Interest.
5600 PE unwounded 1.6 lakh in Open Interest total OI at 77 Lakhs,Bulls want to make 5600 as base for September Series.5700 PE added 4 lakhs in OI so we should see some good move ie. Break below 5648 or break above 5720 tomorrow. 5300-5900 PE unwounded 21 lakhs in Open Interest as major unwinding coming from 5500 PE. FII are booking profits in Puts written by them.FII bought 5845 cores do note it includes the Bulk deal in Bayer Corp science and Cairn India and DII sold 1374 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 4 months high at 53.36 . FII sold 610 cores in Stock Futures.
Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5452, Trend Changer at 5677 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
5 DMA at 5638
20 DMA at 5426
50 DMA at 5329
200 DMA at 5165
5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 76 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 72. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.
Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:
Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5688 and above the level marks the track point at 5733 later zipper levels at 5755 marks.
Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5666 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5644 later dipping levels near 5622 marks.
Advance tax data for Q2 September 2012, policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates and mid-quarter policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will dictate near term trend on the bourses.
Advance tax data for the 2nd installment due on 15 September 2012 could provide cues on the likely corporate earnings for Q2 September 2012.
The RBI is scheduled to undertake a mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on 17 September 2012. RBI last cut rates by 0.5 percentage point to 8% from 8.5% in April, its first move to reverse a 20-month rate-tightening cycle. It then held rates steady in June and at its last rate-setting meeting on July 31, saying that a cut would exacerbate inflationary pressures. Weak government finances and high crude oil prices remain a concern. Weakening tax revenue amid a sharp slowdown in the economy has put further stress on the government’s financial health.
The government has very limited time to take economic reform measures given that assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (HP) are scheduled in December this year. It will be difficult for the government to enact controversial measures close to the assembly polls. After elections in Gujarat and HP, assembly elections are planned in a total of 10 states during the period from March 2013 to January 2014. The next general election is due in May 2014.
On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest rates on September 12-13. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged in an Aug. 31 speech to promote growth with “additional policy accommodation as needed.
Election for a new president in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
Germany’s constitutional court will decide on Wednesday, 12 September 2012, whether the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) ~ the proposed permanent successor to the euro-zone’s current emergency lender viz. the European Financial Stability Mechanism ~ violates German law and the Maastricht Treaty’s ‘no bailout’ clause.
The results of a detailed audit on the capitalization needs of Spain’s banks are expected in mid-September 2012.
Nifty Weekly View:
SEEING THAT WE POSTED HERE NIFTY RETEST THE TREND LINE ON THURSDAY. ECB GIVE GREEN SIGNAL TO BULLS AND ON FRIDAY BULLS HIT A CENTURY.
BULLS HAVE NO CONCERN AS LONG AS NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 5222. BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR FEW WEEKS.
AT THE MOMENT 5449 HIGH MADE ON 23RD AUGUST IS THE NEXT BIG RESISTANCE FOR BULLS. BEFORE THAT 5400 WILL ACT AS MINOR RESISTANCE.
OUR SHORT TERM TARGET FOR NIFTY REMAIN SAME AS FOLLOWS:
THE MINIMUM TARGET WILL BE 4770+1097=5867. ONLY A CLOSE BELOW 4977 WILL TERMINATE ABOVE VIEW.
WEEKLY VIEW: BULLS WHO INITIATED LONGS ON SATURDAY CAN KEEP 5311 AS SL. WHO HAVE MISSED ON SATURDAY CAN INITIATE LONGS ON MONDAY.
Weekly Resistance at 5422-5411
Weekly Trend Deciding Level at 5333
Weekly Support at 5288-5244
Gold Weekly View
Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 31,311.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 31,186.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 32,004.00 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,700.00–31,640.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 31,400.00-31,340.00 levels. Trading consistently below 31,320.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,995.00 then 30,881.00 and then finally towards the major support at 30,625.00 levels.
Resistance is observed in the range of 32,220.00-32,250.00 levels. Trading consistently above 32,260.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 32,490.00-32,520.00 levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 33,024.00 levels.
Gold Trading levels for the week:
Support at 31,700.00-31,400.00
Resistance at 32,220.00-32,520.00
Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,650-31,600 SL 31,380 Target 31,950-32,200
Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 32,500-32,520 SL 32,850 Target 32,150-21,700
Silver Weekly View
Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 61,061.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 60,712.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,470.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 63,000.00-62,000.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 61,800.00-61,700.00 levels. Trading consistently below 61,700.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 60,940.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 59,500.00 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 65,200.00-65,250.00 levels and then strong resistance is seen at 66,400.00-66,600.00 levels. Multiple closing above 66,600.00 levels would further extend the current rally initially towards 70,000.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 71,034.00 levels.
Silver Trading levels for the week:
Support at 62,970.00-61,700.00
Resistance at 665,200.00-66,400.00
Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 63,000-62,900 SL 61,600 Target 64400-65200.
Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 66,400-66,500 SL 67,500 Target 65300-63450.
Copper Weekly View:
Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened on its low at 427.65 levels and then rallied sharply breaking both the resistances towards 450.60 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 443-442 levels and further below strong support is seen at 436-4330 levels. Multiple closing below 433 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 427 and then finally towards 419.80 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 456-457 levels. Trading consistently above 458 levels would further lead towards 460 and then finally towards the all time high at 466.20 levels.
Copper Trading levels for the week:
Support at 443-436
Resistance at 456-465
Advice: Buy Copper Mcx Nov Around 443-442 SL 435 Target 451-455.
Crude Weekly View:
Crude September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5375.00 levels initially moved sharply higher, but found good resistance at 5438.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5212.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5206.00-5185.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5175.00 levels would trigger sharp fall towards the strong support at 5105.00-5090.00 levels. Daily closing below 5090.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 5037 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4940.00 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 5430.00-5450.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5450 levels would renew the previous week’s rally initially towards 5547.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5602.00 levels.
The Bse Index Closes on Thursday at 17657 down 71 Points or -0.40% and the Nifty fasten store at 5363, down 17 points from the previous close or -0.32%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.2% while the BSE Small cap index gains 0.3% in Yesterdays Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 645against declines of 798 on the NSE.
The markets trade in a tapered range in yesterday and closed with temperate declines. FMCG, metal, consumer durables and banking were the biggest laggards in yesterday’s session while capital goods, oil & gas and auto gained drastically.
Nse India Top Gainers in Yesterday’s Trade: Idfc, Hero Moto corp, Ranbaxy and M&M
Nse India Top Losers in Yesterday’s Trade: Itc, Ster, Hindalco and Sesa Goa.
Kingfisher Airlines has started paying the overdue salary to some employees. The March salary payment to ground staff and cabin crew has begun.
Orchid Chemicals Q1FY13 YoY net loss at Rs.51 cr vs profit of Rs.15.5 cr; net sales at Rs.315.6 cr vs Rs.373.8 cr.
Alok Industries is planning to shut 45 out of the 137 exclusive retail outlets next month.
Jain Irrigation Q1FY13 (YoY) net loss at Rs.16.8 cr vs profit of Rs.82.4 cr; net sales at Rs.848.6 cr vs Rs.931.3 cr.
Reliance Industries has proposed to drill exploration well in KG’ D6 block at own cost..
GVK Power has dropped the plan to develop SEZ in Tamil Nadu. The company has deferred work on seaport venture in Gujarat.
Oriental Bank of Commerce has cut the base rate by 10 bps to 10.40%.
Jet fuel prices have been hiked by over 3.2%.
Infosys visa case trial has been pushed to September 17 as judge seeks more time. The trial was to come up on August 20.
Wockhardt will be launching generic version of clot-buster drug Plavix in US.
FII DERIVATIVES DATA
FII sold 501 Contracts of Nifty, worth 14 cores with net OI increasing by 3799 contracts.
As Nifty Future was down by 25 points and OI has increased by 3799, FII have booked profits in longs in Index futures. Also be aware that today closing on NF is first double digits losses in August series.
Nifty Spot closed at 5363 after making a high of 5390,as said in Weekly analysis 5386 will be an important level as its 100 WSMA .As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone, cannot be broken in single attempt.
Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5390 and 5400 (as its swing high in Oct 2011) which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5340 and 5319 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5238 is not broken on closing basis. We have weekly closing tomorrow and close above 5319 will keep weekly in uptrend
Nifty August OI is at 2.58 cores with an unwinding of 1.19 Lakh in OI, longs were liquidated by Retailers and HNI.As OI figure saw an unwinding of 1.19 lakhs i expect some good move tomorrow. We have a long weekend ahead as Monday is a Holiday on eve of EID.
Total F&O turnover was 0.86 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.58 lakh lowest in 2012. These were increase of 10% in cash market volumes which indicates distribution by smart money on higher levels.
5300 CE also saw an addition of 1.11 lakhs with total OI now standing at 38 lakhs (Smart bears writing calls) ,5400 CE saw an addition of 3.3 lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 92 lakhs, , 5000-5600 CE saw an addition of 10 lakhs in OI suggesting bears have have started getting warmed up.
On Put side 5000 PE saw an addition of 0.7 lakhs, strong support of Nifty as total OI at 1.02 core.5000-5500 PE unwounded total of 0.90 lakhs in OI.5300 PE added 0.36 lakh in OI and having the OI at 86 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in near term and immediate support in any pullback.
FII bought 95 cores and DII bought 225 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.71. FII has sold 341 cores in stock futures.
Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5390, Trend Changer at 5290 NIFTY (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
5 DMA at 5347
20 DMA at 5238
50 DMA at 5205
200 DMA at 5115
5-Days Relative Strength Index at 71
14-Days Relative Strength Index at 64. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.
NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zooper levels at 5444 marks.
SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5355 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5333 later dipping levels near 5311 marks.
* Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and outlook of the market performance. Readers those who buy and sell securities based on the above information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author won't be liable or responsible for any sort of financial and legal loses suffered by the traders.