Nifty out Look & FII Derivative Data – 25 September’2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 18,674 down – 80 Points from its Previous Close or -0.42%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5670 down by -22 Points from its Previous Close or -0.38%.

  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Bhel,  Jindal Steel, Maruti and M&M.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Hdfc, Ongc, Sail and Itc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 5167 Contracts of Index Future, worth 129.87 cores with net OI increasing by Huge 74249 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 25 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 30452, FII have started booking profits on Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5670 after making a high of 5710 and unable to break 5720, Bulls are in control of market and traders are getting overconfidence on taking longs which should be treated as caution whenever over optimism comes in market time to be cautious .Stock markets moves in direction which give maximum pain to traders to short term traders. So trade with strict stoploss as we are approaching expiry. After big rise on Friday we had a session of consolidation today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5700 and 5720which needs to be watched closely, Support now exists at 5648 and 5618 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5547 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future September Open Interest is at 2.15 cores with a unwinding of 6.8 Lakh in OI, profit booking in longs is seen in Nifty future .Rollovers have started in NIfty Futures with addition of 21 lakhs in October series. Fresh longs are created in October series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.71 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.22 lakh. PCR at 0.95 and VIX   at 18.83.
  • 5800 CE is having highest Open Interest of 76 lakhs with fresh addition of 15 lakhs in OI.5700 CE Open Interest at 70  lakhs, with addition of 3 lakhs. Immediate support is at 5648 as 5600 CE sheded 3 lakhs as per Open Interest table.  5300-5900 CE added 12 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PE added 3 lakh in Open Interest total OI at 78 Lakhs, Bulls want to make  5600 as base for September Series. 5300-5900 PE added 5.7 lakhs in Open Interest so option activity shows Bulls in wait and watch mode.
  • FII bought 1585 cores and DII  sold 1156 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 4 months high at 53.48  FII sold 387 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5440, Trend Changer at 5680 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5625
  • 20 DMA at 5410
  • 50 DMA at 5320
  • 200 DMA at 5162
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 76 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 72. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5688 and above the level marks the track point at 5733 later zipper levels at 5755 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5666 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5644 later dipping levels near 5622 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 25 Sep’2012:

Buy above 5711 sl 5688 Tgt 5733-5755 {Or} Sell Below 5666 sl 5688 Tgt 5644-5622.

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 25 Sep’2012:

Buy above 11466 sl 11422 Tgt 11555-11644 {Or} Sell below 11377 sl 1422 Tgt 11333-11288.

Commodity Market Outlook 10 Sep’2012 for Metals, Chana, Oil & Natural Gas Trading

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31814-32016.

Gold dropped on profit booking after hitting all time high as tepid U.S. jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing

Growing hope for monetary stimulus in Europe and the United States, investors boosted holdings of bullion

Gold prices had roared to record highs on the back of the Fed’s past accommodative measures.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 63546-64326.

Silver still looking firm as last week’s US jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing by FED

Bullion outperformed the euro, which hit four-month highs against the dollar, and the broader market.

U.S. jobs growth slowed sharply in August, setting the stage for the Fed to pump additional money

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56833, with intraday support seen at 63546 and resistance at 64326.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5298-5332.

Crude rose after disappointing U.S. August jobs report weakened dollar and bolstered expectations for stimulus

The possibility that strategic oil reserves may be released by the United States hemmed in oil prices

U.S. regulators said 36.35 percent of daily oil production in U.S.-regulated areas of Gulf of Mexico remained shut

Crude is holding with a support at 5298 and resistance will be likely at 5332.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 443.6-452.6.

Copper rose driven by stimulus hopes in US and China’s approval of a multibillion dollar infrastructure program

Gains were fueled on investor bets of a healthier year-end demand outlook from China and another round of bond buybacks

Additional support came from the currency market, where the euro climbed on the prospects of more bond buying

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215950mt that is up by 2725mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 107.07-109.07.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as market was boosted by many positive reports.

US Department of Labor announced seasonally adjusted US nonfarm employment payrolls were lower than expected

Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 3126 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 942200mt that is down by  -3050mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 904.4-916.

Nickel settled flat up by 0.08% at 910 tracking Friday’s rally in LME nickel after release of nonfarm data from US

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

The US dollar fell by over 1% after the data release, and base metal prices rallied across the board

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121080mt that is down by -72mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 146.57-149.97.

Natural gas ended lower as milder autumn weather was expected to curb any late-season demand for cooling

Shut-in gas from Hurricane Isaac has also been returning to service over the past few days

Shut-in offshore Gulf of Mexico production from Isaac curbed inventory build and should do same to next injection

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 146.57 and resistance will be likely at 149.97.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 110.35-111.85.

Aluminium settled 0.54% up boosted by hopes for economic stimulus in the world’s leading economies

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

Aluminium weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 11777 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4871425mt that is up by 5025mt.

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1350.1-1410.3.

Menthaoil spot is at 1538/-.Spot market is down by Rs.8/-.

Mentha oil ended lower on profit booking after prices gained buoyed by firm trend at the spot market

Higher sowing activities due to the high rates obtained by farmers last year resulted in higher production

Better production prospects have been keeping overall sentiments weak.

CHANA:

Chana trading range for the day is 4802-4894.

Chana settled flat as improved rains boosted hopes of better sowing and aided growth of the kharif pulses.

Farmers completed sowing of kharif pulses on 9.77 million hectares by Aug. 30, down from 10.42 million hectares

NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks dropped by 217 tonnes to 50889 tonnes.

In Delhi spot market, chana fell down by -49.05 rupee to end at 4838.45 rupee per 100 Kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13515-14275.

Jeera gained as thin supplies in the spot market supported buying though rains in Gujarat state limited upside

Indian jeera exports rise by 40 pc in quantity due to Syria unrest

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 106 tonnes to 10519 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera dropped -108.65 rupees to end at 14905 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5523-5943.

Turmeric fell due to a drop in overseas enquiries and a revival in rains that could help improve yield

Prospects of pick-up in sowing in major producing areas amid heavy rainfall also weighed on prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 1 tonnes to 10252 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5582.4 rupees dropped by -6.35 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY CALL:

  • SELL NATURAL GAS MCX SEPT BELOW 147 SL 149.50 TGT 145.50-144.25-142.50.
  • BUY GOLD MCX OCT ABOVE 31950 SL 31870 TGT 31990-32035-32095.
  • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 64100 SL 63880 TGT 64320-64560-64720.
  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 448.50 SL 445 TGT 450.20-452.80-454

Commodities Outlook 07 Sep’2012

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31150-31976.

Gold settled flat on profit booking after gaining on news of ECB’s plans for a potentially unlimited bond-buying program

Holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds hit a record high of 72.1 million ounces, or 2,044 tonnes

ECB interest rates at 0.75% versus 0.50% expected and 0.75% prior

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 61196-64002.

Silver gains but dropped from high’s as rupee shown firmness and snapped three-day losing streak boosted by corporate dollar sales

Silver extended gains even as the industrial metal remained firmly in overbought territory measured by RSI.

BOE keeps the interest rate at 0.50% and keeps the asset purchase target at 375B.

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56456, with intraday support seen at 61196 and resistance at 64002.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5250-5482.

Crude oil held on to strong gains after government report showed oil supplies fell significantly last week.

Crude oil inventories fell by 7.4mbls compared to expectations for a decline of 5.3mbls.

Market looked ahead on non-farm payrolls which will allow investors to gauge the strength of the labor market.

Crude is holding with a support at 5250 and resistance will be likely at 5482.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 429.3-441.1.

Copper dropped despite supportive news that the ECB will undertake an aggressive bond-buying program.

Copper paused to digest the news of the ECB’s program as well as the bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold.

Copper also had a muted reaction to U.S. data that showed the claims for jobless benefits fell last week

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 213225mt that is down by -1825mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 104.03-106.83.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as European Central Bank announced to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.75%

ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank would introduce unlimited amounts of short-term debt buying program

ECB pushed new unlimited government bond purchasing plan, while US ADP’s data was much better than forecasts

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 945250mt that is down by -2800mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 883.9-922.

Nickel dropped but downside limited as data from the was better than expectation

Germany was objected to the ECB’s bond purchasing, increasing risks for bond buying.

ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a new bond-buying program dubbed “Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs)”

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121152mt that is up by 1098mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 152.8-162.4.

Natural gas gains as a report from the EIA showed U.S. gas supplies rose less-than-expected last week.

EIA said in its report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended August 31 rose by 28 bcf.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.402 trillion cubic feet as of last week.

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 152.8 and resistance will be likely at 162.4.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 107.8-111.2.

Aluminium dropped as investors confidence cooled after weakening possibility of policy easing by the Fed

Markets expect the US non-farm payrolls will continue to grow mildly since US economic figures came in better than anticipated

ECB interest rates at 0.75% versus 0.50% expected and 0.75% prior.

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4866400mt that is down by  -8225mt.

REF SOYA OIL:

Ref soyaoil trading range for the day is 802.13-813.23.

Ref soyaoil dropped on some profit booking but downside was limited as good demand in spot market due supported prices

Overall demand is expected to pick up which will support the market sentiments in medium term.

Soybean production in 2012 is likely to be more than last year but heavy rainfall in central India remains a concern

At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up by 4.65 rupee to 802.65 rupees 10 kgs.

WHEAT:

Wheat trading range for the day is 1523-1569.

Wheat fell on expectations that the government could release additional wheat from its warehouses to ease shortages

India has decided to make available 1.3 million tonnes of additional wheat for open sale in September and October

Millers can now request supplies amounting to up to 1.3 million tonnes out of a total of 3 million tonnes agreed by ministers

In Delhi wheat prices gained 1.95 rupee to end at 1573.2 rupees per 10 kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13978-14654.

Jeera gained on short covering on hopes of exports may pick up, though higher production concerns limited uptrend.

The total arrivals remain unchanged at 4,000 bags, while demand was seen for around 5,000 bags.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 458 tonnes to 10625 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera gained 53 rupees to end at 15138.7 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5878-6318.

Turmeric gained on rising demand ahead of festive seasons along with lower sowing in the major producing regions.

Reports of stockiest holding onto stocks supported the rates at these levels however.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 484 tonnes to 10253 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5588.75 rupees gained by 116.75 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY ADVICE:

  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 434 SL 432 TGT 436-438
  • BUY SOYABEAN NCDEX OCT ABOVE 4010 SL 3980 TGT 4038-4060
  • CRUDE OIL MCX SEP BELOW 5320 SL 5355 TGT 5295-5270

Nifty out Look, FII Derivative Data, Nifty Future Momentum Call – 29 August’2012

The Bse Index put down the lid at 17632 down 47 points or -0.27% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5335 down 15 points or -0.29% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Small cap index was down 1.4% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 335 against declines of 1096 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate declines today with metal taking a severe beating.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Power Grid, Tcs, Asian Paints and Dr. Reddy.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Ster, Jindal Steel, Jp  Assosiates and Hindalco.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 15439 Contracts of Index Future, worth 433 cores with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 16 points and OI has increased by 69021, FII have created fresh longs in index futures ahead of expiry. FII buying is quiet visible even though mid caps and small cap Index were down by 1.1.5% NF was down by just 16 points.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5335 after making the low of 5313; Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5341 got broken on Nifty. Bears were unable to break the crucial support of 5313 which also is the low for today, shows next 2 days Bulls can be on roar if 5300 is not broken tomorrow.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5361 and 5392 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5313 and 5294 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5325 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.0 cores with an unwinding of 32 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollover to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.16 lakhs so 32 lakhs got rollover and 24 lakh extra addition in OI. Longs are getting rollover to next series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.73 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.66 lakh, Volumes were quiet high today looking at brutal fall we have seen in mid caps stocks Adani, JIndals.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 5 lakhs with total OI now standing at 34 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 18 lakhs and total OI stands at 85 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are assuming Nifty will expire below 5400 and they can eat the whole premium, 5400 is immediate ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE sheded 12 lakh in OI and having the OI at 95 lakhs which suggests traders are getting little jittery that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 third day running,  and Put writers got jittery as Nifty came near 5313. 5300 seems a strong base and 5400 strong resistance for next 2 days.FII net sold 877 cores in Options suggesting profit booking in Put option as they saw a huge unwinding of 25 lakhs basically in 5300 and 5400 PE.
  • FII bought 93 cores and DII sold 314 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.6. FII were again sellers of 551 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5328, Trend Changer at 5327 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5380
  • 20 DMA at 5325
  • 50 DMA at 5247
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 434 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 54. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5355 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 29 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5355 sl 5333 Tgt 5400-5444{Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5311 sl 5333 Tgt 5288-5266.

Nifty Outlook & FII Darivatives Data for 23 August’2012

The Bse Index Closes on Yesterday at 17847 down38 Points or -0.21% and the Nifty fasten store at 5413 down 8 points from the previous close or +-0.15%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.5% while the BSE Small cap index declines 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 653 against declines of 788 on the NSE.

The markets closed with judicious declines today with realty and power being the nastiest performers. Banking, healthcare and auto made some gains.

Nse India Top Gainers in Yesterday’s Trade: Ranbaxy, Bpcl, Bank of Baroda and Infosyis.

Nse India Top Losers in Yesterday’s Trade: Airtel, Idfc, Sesa Goa and Ntpc.

Stock Cipher:

  • NMDC hikes iron ore price by 8-13%.
  • This fiscal year, ONGC is planning to spend Rs 15000 cr to drill 480 wells.
  • Essar Oil is in an agreement of USD 1.2 billion with Colombia to buy crude oil.
  • Wockhardt has received a tentative US FDA nod for Anti-psychotic Drug Geodon.
  • Alstom – BHEL will be supplying turbo-generator package for Rawatbhata Nuclear Plan.

 FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 7345 Contracts of Nifty, worth 183 cores  with net OI decreasing by 3965 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 11 points and OI has decreased by 3965, FII have started booking profits Index futures. The way we fell down from 5455 NF suggests profit booking.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5413 after making the high of 5433. Bulls successfully managed to close nifty above 5400 Inspite of bad global cues which suggests strength. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5446 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5395 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5269 is not broken on closing basis.
  • As we discussed yesterday it will be a range bound day and a listless market and nifty obliged us by doing nothing. Hope traders were able to benefit the same.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.61 cores with an unwinding of 2.57 Lakh in OI, longs were unwounded by Retailers and HNI. I expect small range tomorrow probably till 5447 on higher end and 5400 on lower end with stock specific action looking at OI figure. (This is what we discussed yesterday and same happened today).
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.06 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.68 lakh, Nifty Future made a new high with pathetic volumes, Also the Cash volume were 30% lower than average which suggests distribution happening at higher levels. Be cautious on your longs and ride it till music lasts.
  • 5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 1.67 lakhs with total OI now standing at 31 lakhs, Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 0.44  lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs no major unwinding seen, 5500 CE still having  highest OI of 1 core lakhs, with fresh addition of 1.6 lakhs in OI.
  • 5300 PE added 0.8 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.07 cr which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also added 10 Lakh in OI so now traders are eyeing 5400 PE as next base for Nifty.
  • FII bought 96 cores and DII sold 230 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.57. FII again sold 230 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5386, Trend Changer at 5312 Nifty (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5389
  • 20 DMA at 5269
  • 50 DMA at 5226
  • 200 DMA at 5117
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 77
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 67. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zooper levels at 5488 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5400 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5477 later dipping levels near 5355 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 23 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5444 Sl 5422 Tgt 5466-5488 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5400 Sl 5422 Tgt 5377-5355.

Nifty out Look & FII Data – 21 August’2012

The Bse Index Closes on Friday at 17691 up 34 Points or +0.19% and the Nifty fasten store at 5366, up 3 points from the previous close or +0.06%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.1% while the BSE Small cap index gains 0.02% in Fridays Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 654 against declines of 797 on the NSE.

The markets lost all the gains on Friday morning trade and closed flat. FMCG, IT, auto and consumer durables were the biggest gainers in Friday’s session while realty, power and metal tried to pull the indices down.

Nse India Top Gainers in Friday’s Trade: Tata Motors, Hul, Itc and Infosyis.

Nse India Top Losers in Friday’s Trade: Jindal Steel, Tata Power, Reliance Infra and Dlf.

Stock Cipher:

  • UltraTech and Lupin will be replacing SAIL and Sterlite in Nifty from Sept 28, 2012.
  • Cairn India has acquired 60% in offshore Block 1 in South Africa.
  • Dhanlaxmi bank is planning to cut stake in Destimoney from 13% to 5%.
  • Tata Global arm has bought the remaining 49% in Russian SuntyCo Holding.
  • US firm Santarus has sued Dr Reddy. It has accused Dr Reddy for infringing its patents on heartburn drug Zegerid.
  • Rupee at close: Rupee ends at 55.73 to the dollar vs 55.76 on Thursday.

 FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 12876 Contracts of NF, worth 279 cores with net OI increasing by 8208 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 0.35 points and OI has increased by 8208, FII have used the dip to buy into Index futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5366 after making a high of 5400; Bulls were unable to close nifty above 5380 resistance zone which shows the supply pressure coming at higher levels.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5390 and 5400 (as  its swing high in Oct 2011) which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5328 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5244 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.56 cores with an unwinding  of 2.3 Lakh in OI, longs were liquidated by Retailers and HNI.As OI figure saw an unwinding of 1.19 lakhs i expect some good move tomorrow this is what we discussed on Thursday and on Friday we had a range of 72 points
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.25 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.4  lakh lowest in 2012.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.79  lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs ,5400 CE saw an  addition  of 1.85  lakhs and total OI stands at 67 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 93 lakhs,  , 5000-5600 CE saw an addition of 2.6 lakhs in OI.
  • On Put side 5000 PE saw an unwinding of 1.4 lakhs, strong support of Nifty as total OI at 1.01 core.5000-5500 PE added total of 7 lakhs in OI.5300 PE added 5 lakh in OI and having the OI at 91 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in near term and immediate support in any pullback.5400 PE also added 7.2 Lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of Options yesterday so are they are buying puts to hedge their longs.
  • FII bought 308 cores and DII bought 40 cores in cash segment. FII has sold 161 cores in stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5387, Trend Changer at 5298 NIFTYF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5356
  • 20 DMA at 5244
  • 50 DMA at 5212
  • 200 DMA at 5115
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 72
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 64. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zooper levels at 5444 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5355 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5333 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 21 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5400 Sl 5377 Tgt 5422-5444 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5355 Sl 5377 Tgt 5333-5311.

Overseas Market View – Asian Markets, US Markets

  • Asian markets were trading mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.62% or 123.25 points at 20,086.20.
  • Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.64% or 58.17 points at 9,150.93.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was up 0.14% or 4.37 points at 3,067.26.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite shed 0.51% or 9.91 points at 1,948.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.14% or 3.01 points at 2,109.19.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was flat at 7,495.14.
  • The US markets have their best session in nearly two weeks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterates her support for the ECB’s plans to fight the euro zone crisis and as the Dow component Cisco systems hiked its dividend 75%. The CBOE volatility index slipped to just above 14, a five-year low.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% or 85.33 points at 13250.11. Nasdaq Composite added 1.01% or 31.46 points at 3062.39. Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.71% or 9.98 points at 1415.51.
  • In economic data, weekly jobless claims rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, in line with expectations. Factory activity in the mid-atlantic area contracted for the fourth-straight month in August. And housing starts unexpectedly fell in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 746,000.
  • In the currency space, the euro gains versus the dollar, above 1.23 as Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterates her support for the ECB’s plans to fight the euro zone crisis.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices at 3 month peak following weakness in dollar and comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
  • In the precious metals space, gold prices gain on further stimulus hopes.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Thursday. In the IT space, Infosys was up 1.69% at USD 42.08, Patni was down 0.11% at USD 18.38 and Wipro was down 0.37% at USD 8.02.
  • In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was up 1.68% at USD 8.47 and MTNL was up 0.33% at USD 1.21. In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was up 0.74% at USD 35.27 and ICICI Bank was down 0.89% at USD 34.44.
  • In the other space, Tata Motors was up 1.93% at USD 21.15, Dr Reddys was up 1.43% at USD 29.73 and Sterlite was down 0.88% at USD 7.88.

Overseas Market View – F&O, Market Cues

  • The US markets ended another session flat in lackluster trade as investors digested a string of mixed economic data and earnings reports. It was a day of extremely anemic volumes. The Dow traded within a 55 point range through the day as bluechips dragged. It was only the Nasdaq that managed to eke out a half percent gain.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% or 7.36 points at 13164.78. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.46% or 13.95 points at 3030.93. Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.11% or 1.6 points at 1405.53.
  • Also better economic data is now raising doubts that the Fed would launch any fresh bond buying programme next month. The CBOE volatility index slid below 15.
  • On economic data front, consumer prices were flat for a second-straight month in July. Meanwhile US homebuilder sentiment rose in August to its highest level in more than five years. New York Fed Reserve empire state index of manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly into negative territory in August for the first time since last October.
  • In key data to watch out for in the US today, weekly jobless claims are expected to rise marginally to 365,000. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to come in at minus 6.5, after a 12.5 decline last month. Also watch out for
  • housing starts data.
  • In the currency space, the dollar firm versus the euro after the US economic data boosted treasury yields and cut expectations of more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.
  • In commodities, crude prices gain with Brent above USD 116 levels, the highest level in more than three months following a sharp drawdown in US crude stockpiles.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Wednesday. In the IT space, Infosys was up 0.56% at USD 41.38, Wipro was up 0.5% at USD 8.05 and Patni was down 1.08% at USD 18.4.
  • In the Telecom space, MTNL was up 0.5% at USD 1.206 and Tata Communication was up 0.12% at USD 8.33. In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 0.49% at USD 34.75 and HDFC Bank was down 0.65% at USD 35.01.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 0.51% at USD 7.95, Dr Reddys was down 0.37% at USD 29.31 and Tata Motors was down 0.91% at USD 20.75.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest mkt range of 5300-5500
  • Total Puts add 5.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls add 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Highest OI buildup seen in 5000 Put & 5500 Call
  • 5000 Put adds 1.3 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put adds 10.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Put adds 5.8 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5200 Put sheds 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 4900 Put sheds 13.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Call adds 4.1 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call sheds 6.95 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Call sheds 4.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 8.3 lakh shares in OI.
  • Stock Futures adds 50.6 cr shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.21 from 1.2
  • India VIX closed at 15.64 down by 2.31%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 14
  • FIIs net buy Rs 289 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts up by 7560
  • FIIs net buy Rs 411 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 46491
  • FIIs net sell Rs 428 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 7153

Market cues:

  • FIIs net buy USD 65 million in cash market on August 13
  • MFs net sell Rs 66 crore in cash market on August 13
  • As per provisional data of August 14, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 258 cr in cash market. FIIs were net buyers of Rs
  • 160 cr in F&O. DIIs were net buyers of Rs 76 cr in cash market.
  • FII sells 323 Contracts of Nifty, worth 21.28 cores with net OI increasing by 7909 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has increased by 7909, FII have started shorting the index futures in small quantity. As FII average traded price comes at a weird number of 13179 which shows they are trading in fewer volumes and mostly doing day trading.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5320 after making a high of 5330 and low of 5294 ,nifty has closed above 5300 but it has formed lower high and lower lows .As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone, cannot be broken in single attempt. Bulls are trying from past 2 days to close Nifty above 5350 but are failing each time suggesting weakness in price and eventual dip till 5260 can come in next 2 days.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5350 and after that 5380  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5286 ,Below 5260 gap filling will start till 5216 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5213 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.43 cores with an addition of 3.7 Lakh in OI, shorts were added by Retailers and HNI.
  • Total Future and Options turnover was 0.93 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.8 lakh.
  • 5400 CE saw an unwinding of 2.5 lakhs and total OI stands at 75 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 85 lakhs, 5300 CE also saw an addition of 1.1 lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs, 4900-5500 CE saw an unwinding of 2 lakhs in OI suggesting weak bears have unwounded the position as Nifty is unable to close below 5300.
  • Lying on Put side 5000 PE saw an addition of 1 lakhs, immediate support of Nifty as total OI at 1.05 core.4900-5500 PE added total of 10 lakhs in OI. 5200 PE added 6 lakhs in OI suggesting market participants are not showing nifty closing below 5200 for coming week.
  • FII bought 83 cores and DII sold 536 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.41 Live INR rate @ FII has sold 634 in stock futures namely in SBI and PSU banks.
  • Nifty Futures Trend deciding level is 5265, Trend Changer at 5266 Nifty Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty Below this levels Bears have superior hand.

Nifty Outlook – 13 August’2012

The Bse Index put down the lid at 17557 down 3 points or -0.02% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5320 down 2 points or -0.05% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was down 0.3%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 549 against declines of 878 on the NSE.

It was a passive close to a dull session for the Indian market which adage banks, autos and realty trade under pressure. However, some buying was seen in IT, FMCG and oil & gas stocks in a range bound picture.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Bpcl, Maruti Suzuki, Kotak Bank and Tcs

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sbin, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy and bank of Baroda.

Market Signs:

  1. IFCI Q1 net profit at Rs 93.6 cr  vs Rs 132.1 cr (YoY); revenue at Rs 661 cr vs Rs 602.5 cr (YoY).
  2. GMR Infra Q1 cons net loss at Rs 94.3 cr vs Rs 66.7 cr (YoY); cons revenue at Rs 2,562 cr vs Rs 2089.8 cr (YoY).
  3. Reliance Infra will be seeking approval to raise funds via QIP (Qualified Institutional Placement). The fundraising will not exceed 25% of equity capital.
  4. PSU oil cos seek immediate hike in petrol prices.
  5. Welspun India Q1FY13 Consolidated YoY Net Profit at Rs 37.7 Cr Vs Rs.18.2 Cr.
  6. Reliance Communications seeks shareholders’ approval to increase its authorised share capital to 25 billion rupees.
  7. Credit Suisse downgraded Tata Motors to “underperform” from “neutral” after cutting its volumes forecast.
  8. Sun Pharma Advanced approves rights issue at a price of Rs 67/share.
  9. Bombay Dyeing loses mill land battle in SC; stock slips.
  10. SBI Q1 net profit at Rs 3,751.5 cr Vs Rs 1584 cr (YoY); NII at Rs 11,118.8 cr Vs Rs 9700 cr (YoY).
  11. Sakthi Sugars Q1 net profit at Rs 1.4 cr vs loss of Rs 10.4 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 357 cr vs Rs 354.7 cr (YoY).
  12. Eros International Q1 Cons net profit at Rs 31.4 Cr Vs Rs 29.7 Cr (QoQ).
  13. Sun Pharma Q1 cons net profit at 795.5 cr vs Rs 501 cr (YoY); cons net sales at Rs 2,658 cr vs Rs 1,636 cr (YoY).
  14. Sundram Fasteners Q1 net profit at Rs 31.2 cr vs Rs 34.9 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 570.8 cr vs Rs 510.8 cr (YoY).
  15. Bharat Forge Q1 net profit at Rs 105.2 cr vs Rs 97.4 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 916.2 cr vs Rs 829.3 cr (YoY).
  16. BPCL Q1 net loss at Rs 8837 cr vs loss of Rs 2562 cr (YoY); GRM at USD 2.62/bbl Vs USD 4.20/bbl (QoQ).
  17. ONGC Q1 net profit at Rs 6077.7 cr vs Rs 4095 cr (YoY); net sales at Rs 20,084.3 cr vs Rs 16199 cr (YoY).

Last Close at 5320 down -2 points, Last High at 5300 and Last Low at 5294> Weekly High at 5330 and Weekly Low at 5129.

5 DMA at 5320

20 DMA at 5213

50 DMA at 5178

200 DMA at 5111.

5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 70 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 61. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5333 and above the level marks the track point at 5355 later zipper levels at 5377 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 13 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5377 sl 5355 Tgt 5399-5422 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5333 sl 5355 Tgt 5311-5288.

Overseas Market View

European shares rose to their highest level in more than four months on Tuesday, as firmer oil stocks and a surge in telecoms group Nokia offset a slump in UK bank Standard Chartered after becoming embroiled in a scandal.

As a result, The FTS Euro first 300 index closed up 0.8 percent at 1,094.19 points, while the Euro STOXX 50 index rose 1.7 percent to 2,440.24 points. Spain’s benchmark IBEX stock market index rose 1.4 percent, while France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX closed up 0.8 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively.

On the flip side, U.S. stocks surged for a third straight day on Tuesday, pushing the S&P above 1,400 for the first time since early May, on growing optimism the European Central Bank would act soon to contain the euro zone’s debt crisis. Hopes for fresh policy actions to help debt-market strugglers Spain and Italy buoyed the market sentiment. Since then, good news from Greece and declines in borrowing costs for Spain and Italy from peaks above 7 percent have kept sentiment positive.

However, summer holidays have added to light trading volume, which has contributed to volatility. Tuesday’s advance was led by stocks in cyclical sectors like energy, materials and consumer discretionary, while defensive sectors like telecoms and utilities edged lower.

Cheering the news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 51.09 points, or 0.39 percent, at 13,168.60 at the close. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 25.95 points, or 0.87 percent, at 3,015.86 and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 7.12 points, or 0.51 percent, to 1,401.35.