Market Weekly Outlook 10-14 September’2012

  • Advance tax data for Q2 September 2012, policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates and mid-quarter policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will dictate near term trend on the bourses.
  •  Advance tax data for the 2nd installment due on 15 September 2012 could provide cues on the likely corporate earnings for Q2 September 2012.
  • The RBI is scheduled to undertake a mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on 17 September 2012. RBI last cut rates by 0.5 percentage point to 8% from 8.5% in April, its first move to reverse a 20-month rate-tightening cycle. It then held rates steady in June and at its last rate-setting meeting on July 31, saying that a cut would exacerbate inflationary pressures. Weak government finances and high crude oil prices remain a concern. Weakening tax revenue amid a sharp slowdown in the economy has put further stress on the government’s financial health.
  • The government has very limited time to take economic reform measures given that assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (HP) are scheduled in December this year. It will be difficult for the government to enact controversial measures close to the assembly polls. After elections in Gujarat and HP, assembly elections are planned in a total of 10 states during the period from March 2013 to January 2014. The next general election is due in May 2014.
  • On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest rates on September 12-13. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged in an Aug. 31 speech to promote growth with “additional policy accommodation as needed.
  • Election for a new president in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
  • Germany’s constitutional court will decide on Wednesday, 12 September 2012, whether the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) ~ the proposed permanent successor to the euro-zone’s current emergency lender viz. the European Financial Stability Mechanism ~ violates German law and the Maastricht Treaty’s ‘no bailout’ clause.
  • The results of a detailed audit on the capitalization needs of Spain’s banks are expected in mid-September 2012.

Nifty Weekly View:

  • SEEING THAT WE POSTED HERE NIFTY RETEST THE TREND LINE ON THURSDAY. ECB GIVE GREEN SIGNAL TO BULLS AND ON FRIDAY BULLS HIT A CENTURY.
  • BULLS HAVE NO CONCERN AS LONG AS NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 5222. BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR FEW WEEKS.
  • AT THE MOMENT 5449 HIGH MADE ON 23RD AUGUST IS THE NEXT BIG RESISTANCE FOR BULLS. BEFORE THAT 5400 WILL ACT AS MINOR RESISTANCE.
  • OUR SHORT TERM TARGET FOR NIFTY REMAIN SAME AS FOLLOWS:
  • THE MINIMUM TARGET WILL BE 4770+1097=5867. ONLY A CLOSE BELOW 4977 WILL TERMINATE ABOVE VIEW.
  • WEEKLY VIEW: BULLS WHO INITIATED LONGS ON SATURDAY CAN KEEP 5311 AS SL. WHO HAVE MISSED ON SATURDAY CAN INITIATE LONGS ON MONDAY.
  • Weekly Resistance at  5422-5411
  • Weekly Trend Deciding Level at 5333
  • Weekly Support at 5288-5244

Gold Weekly View

  • Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 31,311.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 31,186.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 32,004.00 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,700.00–31,640.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 31,400.00-31,340.00 levels. Trading consistently below 31,320.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,995.00 then 30,881.00 and then finally towards the major support at 30,625.00 levels.
  • Resistance is observed in the range of 32,220.00-32,250.00 levels. Trading consistently above 32,260.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 32,490.00-32,520.00 levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 33,024.00 levels.

 Gold Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: UP
  • Support at 31,700.00-31,400.00
  • Resistance at 32,220.00-32,520.00
  • Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,650-31,600 SL 31,380 Target 31,950-32,200

                                                                           {Or}

               Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 32,500-32,520 SL 32,850 Target 32,150-21,700

Silver Weekly View

  • Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 61,061.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 60,712.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,470.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 63,000.00-62,000.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 61,800.00-61,700.00 levels. Trading consistently below 61,700.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 60,940.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 59,500.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 65,200.00-65,250.00 levels and then strong resistance is seen at 66,400.00-66,600.00 levels. Multiple closing above 66,600.00 levels would further extend the current rally initially towards 70,000.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 71,034.00 levels.

Silver Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 62,970.00-61,700.00
  • Resistance at 665,200.00-66,400.00
  • Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 63,000-62,900 SL 61,600 Target 64400-65200.

                                                                              {Or}

               Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 66,400-66,500 SL 67,500 Target 65300-63450.

 

Copper Weekly View:

  • Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened on its low at 427.65 levels and then rallied sharply breaking both the resistances towards 450.60 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 443-442 levels and further below strong support is seen at 436-4330 levels. Multiple closing below 433 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 427 and then finally towards 419.80 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 456-457 levels. Trading consistently above 458 levels would further lead towards 460 and then finally towards the all time high at 466.20 levels.

Copper Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Side-Ways
  • Support at 443-436
  • Resistance at 456-465
  • Advice:  Buy Copper Mcx Nov Around 443-442 SL 435 Target 451-455.

 

Crude Weekly View:

  • Crude September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5375.00 levels initially moved sharply higher, but found good resistance at 5438.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5212.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5206.00-5185.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5175.00 levels would trigger sharp fall towards the strong support at 5105.00-5090.00 levels. Daily closing below 5090.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 5037 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4940.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 5430.00-5450.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5450 levels would renew the previous week’s rally initially towards 5547.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5602.00 levels.

Crude Oil Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 5206.00-5100.00
  • Resistance at 5430.00-5547.00
  • Advice:  Buy Crude MCX Sep Around 5285-5275 SL 5180 Target 5390-5420

Economic Indicators For The Week: