Market Weekly Outlook 10-14 September’2012

  • Advance tax data for Q2 September 2012, policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates and mid-quarter policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will dictate near term trend on the bourses.
  •  Advance tax data for the 2nd installment due on 15 September 2012 could provide cues on the likely corporate earnings for Q2 September 2012.
  • The RBI is scheduled to undertake a mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on 17 September 2012. RBI last cut rates by 0.5 percentage point to 8% from 8.5% in April, its first move to reverse a 20-month rate-tightening cycle. It then held rates steady in June and at its last rate-setting meeting on July 31, saying that a cut would exacerbate inflationary pressures. Weak government finances and high crude oil prices remain a concern. Weakening tax revenue amid a sharp slowdown in the economy has put further stress on the government’s financial health.
  • The government has very limited time to take economic reform measures given that assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (HP) are scheduled in December this year. It will be difficult for the government to enact controversial measures close to the assembly polls. After elections in Gujarat and HP, assembly elections are planned in a total of 10 states during the period from March 2013 to January 2014. The next general election is due in May 2014.
  • On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest rates on September 12-13. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged in an Aug. 31 speech to promote growth with “additional policy accommodation as needed.
  • Election for a new president in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
  • Germany’s constitutional court will decide on Wednesday, 12 September 2012, whether the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) ~ the proposed permanent successor to the euro-zone’s current emergency lender viz. the European Financial Stability Mechanism ~ violates German law and the Maastricht Treaty’s ‘no bailout’ clause.
  • The results of a detailed audit on the capitalization needs of Spain’s banks are expected in mid-September 2012.

Nifty Weekly View:

  • SEEING THAT WE POSTED HERE NIFTY RETEST THE TREND LINE ON THURSDAY. ECB GIVE GREEN SIGNAL TO BULLS AND ON FRIDAY BULLS HIT A CENTURY.
  • BULLS HAVE NO CONCERN AS LONG AS NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 5222. BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR FEW WEEKS.
  • AT THE MOMENT 5449 HIGH MADE ON 23RD AUGUST IS THE NEXT BIG RESISTANCE FOR BULLS. BEFORE THAT 5400 WILL ACT AS MINOR RESISTANCE.
  • OUR SHORT TERM TARGET FOR NIFTY REMAIN SAME AS FOLLOWS:
  • THE MINIMUM TARGET WILL BE 4770+1097=5867. ONLY A CLOSE BELOW 4977 WILL TERMINATE ABOVE VIEW.
  • WEEKLY VIEW: BULLS WHO INITIATED LONGS ON SATURDAY CAN KEEP 5311 AS SL. WHO HAVE MISSED ON SATURDAY CAN INITIATE LONGS ON MONDAY.
  • Weekly Resistance at  5422-5411
  • Weekly Trend Deciding Level at 5333
  • Weekly Support at 5288-5244

Gold Weekly View

  • Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 31,311.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 31,186.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 32,004.00 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,700.00–31,640.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 31,400.00-31,340.00 levels. Trading consistently below 31,320.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,995.00 then 30,881.00 and then finally towards the major support at 30,625.00 levels.
  • Resistance is observed in the range of 32,220.00-32,250.00 levels. Trading consistently above 32,260.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 32,490.00-32,520.00 levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 33,024.00 levels.

 Gold Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: UP
  • Support at 31,700.00-31,400.00
  • Resistance at 32,220.00-32,520.00
  • Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,650-31,600 SL 31,380 Target 31,950-32,200

                                                                           {Or}

               Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 32,500-32,520 SL 32,850 Target 32,150-21,700

Silver Weekly View

  • Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 61,061.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 60,712.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,470.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 63,000.00-62,000.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 61,800.00-61,700.00 levels. Trading consistently below 61,700.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 60,940.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 59,500.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 65,200.00-65,250.00 levels and then strong resistance is seen at 66,400.00-66,600.00 levels. Multiple closing above 66,600.00 levels would further extend the current rally initially towards 70,000.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 71,034.00 levels.

Silver Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 62,970.00-61,700.00
  • Resistance at 665,200.00-66,400.00
  • Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 63,000-62,900 SL 61,600 Target 64400-65200.

                                                                              {Or}

               Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 66,400-66,500 SL 67,500 Target 65300-63450.

 

Copper Weekly View:

  • Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened on its low at 427.65 levels and then rallied sharply breaking both the resistances towards 450.60 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 443-442 levels and further below strong support is seen at 436-4330 levels. Multiple closing below 433 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 427 and then finally towards 419.80 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 456-457 levels. Trading consistently above 458 levels would further lead towards 460 and then finally towards the all time high at 466.20 levels.

Copper Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Side-Ways
  • Support at 443-436
  • Resistance at 456-465
  • Advice:  Buy Copper Mcx Nov Around 443-442 SL 435 Target 451-455.

 

Crude Weekly View:

  • Crude September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5375.00 levels initially moved sharply higher, but found good resistance at 5438.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5212.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5206.00-5185.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5175.00 levels would trigger sharp fall towards the strong support at 5105.00-5090.00 levels. Daily closing below 5090.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 5037 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4940.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 5430.00-5450.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5450 levels would renew the previous week’s rally initially towards 5547.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5602.00 levels.

Crude Oil Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 5206.00-5100.00
  • Resistance at 5430.00-5547.00
  • Advice:  Buy Crude MCX Sep Around 5285-5275 SL 5180 Target 5390-5420

Economic Indicators For The Week:

Market Weekly Outlook 03-07 September’2012

  • The market is likely to be volatile this week.
  • Automobile and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveil monthly sales volume data for August 2012 from Saturday, 1 September 2012.
  • Market Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2012 on Monday, 3 September 2012. On Wednesday, 5 September 2012, Market Economics will unveil HSBC India Services PMI for August 2012.
  • The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which gauges business activity at India’s factories but not utilities, fell to 52.9 in July, from 55 in June ~ its biggest one-month drop since September last year. Still, the index has remained above the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction for more than three years. Manufacturing accounts for around 15% of India’s gross domestic product.
  • In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly policy meeting on euro area interest rates on Thursday, 6 September 2012. The ECB slashed its interest rates to an all-time low in July. The ECB is expected to continue its easing cycle, probably as soon as in September, to help the economic recovery of recession- and crisis-ridden members of the euro zone.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel holds a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Thursday, 6 September 2012.
  • UK’s central bank — The Bank of England — holds its monthly meeting on interest rates on Thursday, 6 September 2012.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest.

Nifty Weekly View:

  • Nifty taking Support @ 50DMA. Now 50 DMA @ 5258. As per Trend line another gigantic Support at 5200. Any Close below this 5200, will Drag Nifty 200 DMA at 5120 levels.
  • On the Upside Bulls have a seen close above 5355 and then a close above 5400. After then can move towards 5488 and 5577 levels.
  • Our short term target for Nifty: The Minimum Target will be 4700+1097 = 5867.

So these levels should be noted carefully to found further Support and Resistance.

  • Nifty made low on 20-12-2011 @ 4531 Nifty made high on 22-02-2012 @ 5628 Total Rally is 1097 Points. 75% correction of 1097 is 822 @ 4805. Nifty may bounce from 4770 levels. The minimum Target will be 4770+1097= 5867. Only Close below 4977 will terminate above view.
  • Nifty weekly Range will be at 5200-5244-5288-5355-5400-5438
  • Weekly Resistance at  5355-5400-5488
  • Weekly Axle at 5288
  • Weekly Support at 5244-5200.

Gold Weekly View

  • Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 30,984.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 30,656.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 31,405 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,130.00–31,000.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 30,860.00-30,830.00 levels. Trading consistently below 30,820.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,382.00 then 30,198.00 and then finally towards the major support at 29,756.00 levels.
  • Resistance is observed in the range of 31,600.00-31,630.00 levels. Trading consistently above 31,630 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 31,880.00levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 32,200.00 levels.

 Gold Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: UP
  • Support at 31,130.000-30,860.00
  • Resistance at 31,600.00-31,800.00
  • Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,140.00-31,000.00 SL 30,700.00 Target 31,600.00

                                                                           {Or}

               Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,840.00-31,880.00 SL 32,160.00 Target 31,500.00

Silver Weekly View

  • Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 59,700.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 58,601.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,170.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 60,240.00-60,200.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 59,300.00-59,250.00 levels. Trading consistently below 59,240.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 58,240.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 57,670.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 61,880.00-61,940.00 levels. Trading consistently above 61,940.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 62,800.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 63,400.00 levels.

Silver Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 60,240.00-59,300.00
  • Resistance at 61,880.00-62,800.00 
  • Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 60240-60140 SL 59200 Target 61300.

                                                                              {Or}

               Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 61940-61880 SL 62400 Target 61500-60850.

Copper Weekly View:

  • Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 431.15 levels initially moved higher, but found strong resistance at 432.90 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 423.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 422.50-421.50 levels and further below strong support is seen at 417.80-416.80 levels. Daily closing below 416.80 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 413 and then finally towards 408.80 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 431-433 levels. Trading consistently above 433 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 437.60 and then finally towards the major resistance at 441.10 levels.

Copper Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Side-Ways
  • Support at 422.50-417.80
  • Resistance at 431.10-437.60
  • Advice:  Buy Copper MCX Nov Around 422.50-421.50 SL 417 Target 428-431.

Crude Weekly View:

  • Crude Mcx September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5363.00 levels initially moved sharply higher and as expected found good resistance at 5424.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5257.00 levels and finally closed marginally higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5295.00-5285.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5280.00 levels would lead towards the strong support at 5130.00-5110.00 levels. Daily closing below 5100.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 4990.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4893.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 5456.00-5466.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5470.00 levels would extend the previous week’s rally initially towards 5548.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5625.00 levels.

Crude Oil Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 5295.00-5130.00
  • Resistance at 5456.00-5548.00
  • Advice:  Buy Crude Mcx Sep Around 5300-5290 SL 5235 Target 5365-5450.

Economic Indicators For The Week:

Date & Time

Region

Events

Period

Survey

Prior

09/03/2012 & 06:30

CH

Non-Manufacturing PMI

Aug

55.6

09/03/2012 & 08:00

CH

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Aug

49.3

09/03/2012 & 10:30

JN

Vehicle Saies {YoY}

Aug

36.10%

09/03/2012 & 10:02

GE

PMI Manufacturing

Aug F

45.1

45.1

09/03/2012 & 13:30

EC

PMI Manufacturing

Aug F

45.3

45.3

09/03/2012 & 14:00

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Aug

46.1

45.4

09/04/2012 & 14:30

EC

Euro-Zone PPI {MoM}

Jul

0.20%

-0.50%

09/04/2012 & 19:30

US

ISM Manufacturing

Aug

50

48

09/04/2012 & 19:30

US

ISM Price Paid

Aug

46

39.5

09/04/2012 & 19:30

US

Construction Spending MoM

Jul

0.4%

0.4%

09/05/2012 & 02:30

US

Total Vehicle Sales

Aug

14.20M

14.05M

09/05/2012 & 02:30

US

Domestic Vehicle Sales

Aug

11.05M

11.00M

09/05/2012 & 8:00

CH

HSBC Services PMI

Aug

53.1

09/05/2012 &13:25

GE

PMI Services

Aug F

48.3

48.3

09/05/2012 &13:30

EC

PMI Composite

Aug F

46.6

46.6

09/05/2012 & 13:30

EC

PMI Services

Aug F

47.5

47.5

09/05/2012 & 14:30

EC

Euro-Zone Retail Sales(MoM)

Jul

-0.20%

0.10

09/05/2012 & 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Application

31-Aug

-4.30%

09/05/2012 & 18:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

2QF

1.80%

1.60%

09/05/2012 & 18:00

US

Unit Labor cost

2QF

1.40%

1.70%

09/06/2012 & 14:30

EC

Euro Zone GDP s.a.(QoQ)

2QP

-0.20%

-0.20%

09/06/2012 & 15:30

GE

Factory Orders MoM (sa)

Jul

0.30%

-1.70%

09/06/2012 & 16:30

UK

BOE ANNOUNCES RATES

6-Sep

0.50&%

0.50%

09/06/2012 & 17:15

EC

ECB Announces Interest Rates

6-Sep

0.50%

0.75%

09/06/2012 & 17:45

US

EDP Employment Change

Aug

145K

165K

09/06/2012 & 18:00

US

Continuing Claims

25-Aug

3315K

3316K

09/06/2012 & 19:30

US

ISM Non-Manf.Composite

Aug

52.5

52.6

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Export SA(MoM)

Jul

-0.50%

-1.05%

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Imports SA {MoM}

Jul

-0.30%

-3.00%

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Current Account {Euro}

Jul

13.5B

16.5B

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Trade Balance

Jul

15.3B

17.9B

09/07/2012 & 14:00

UK

Industrial Production {MoM}

Jul

1.50%

-2.50%

09/07/2012 & 14:00

UK

Manufacturing production {MoM}

Jul

1.80%

-2.90%

09/07/2012 & 15:30

GE

Industrial Production MoM {Sa}

Jul

0.00%

-0.90%

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Change in Non Farm Payrolls

Aug

125K

163K

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Change in Private Payrolls

Aug

140K

172K

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Change In Manufact. Payrolls

Aug

10K

25K

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Unemployment Rate

Aug

8.30%

8.30%

07-12 Sep

GE

Whole Sale Price Index {Mom}

Aug

—-

0.30%