Commodity Market Outlook 10 Sep’2012 for Metals, Chana, Oil & Natural Gas Trading

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31814-32016.

Gold dropped on profit booking after hitting all time high as tepid U.S. jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing

Growing hope for monetary stimulus in Europe and the United States, investors boosted holdings of bullion

Gold prices had roared to record highs on the back of the Fed’s past accommodative measures.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 63546-64326.

Silver still looking firm as last week’s US jobs report strengthened expectations of further monetary easing by FED

Bullion outperformed the euro, which hit four-month highs against the dollar, and the broader market.

U.S. jobs growth slowed sharply in August, setting the stage for the Fed to pump additional money

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56833, with intraday support seen at 63546 and resistance at 64326.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5298-5332.

Crude rose after disappointing U.S. August jobs report weakened dollar and bolstered expectations for stimulus

The possibility that strategic oil reserves may be released by the United States hemmed in oil prices

U.S. regulators said 36.35 percent of daily oil production in U.S.-regulated areas of Gulf of Mexico remained shut

Crude is holding with a support at 5298 and resistance will be likely at 5332.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 443.6-452.6.

Copper rose driven by stimulus hopes in US and China’s approval of a multibillion dollar infrastructure program

Gains were fueled on investor bets of a healthier year-end demand outlook from China and another round of bond buybacks

Additional support came from the currency market, where the euro climbed on the prospects of more bond buying

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215950mt that is up by 2725mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 107.07-109.07.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as market was boosted by many positive reports.

US Department of Labor announced seasonally adjusted US nonfarm employment payrolls were lower than expected

Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 3126 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 942200mt that is down by  -3050mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 904.4-916.

Nickel settled flat up by 0.08% at 910 tracking Friday’s rally in LME nickel after release of nonfarm data from US

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

The US dollar fell by over 1% after the data release, and base metal prices rallied across the board

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121080mt that is down by -72mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 146.57-149.97.

Natural gas ended lower as milder autumn weather was expected to curb any late-season demand for cooling

Shut-in gas from Hurricane Isaac has also been returning to service over the past few days

Shut-in offshore Gulf of Mexico production from Isaac curbed inventory build and should do same to next injection

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 146.57 and resistance will be likely at 149.97.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 110.35-111.85.

Aluminium settled 0.54% up boosted by hopes for economic stimulus in the world’s leading economies

LME base metal prices will remain bullish amid growing risk appetite due to the ECB’s bond-buying and QE3 expectation

Aluminium weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 11777 tonnes

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4871425mt that is up by 5025mt.

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1350.1-1410.3.

Menthaoil spot is at 1538/-.Spot market is down by Rs.8/-.

Mentha oil ended lower on profit booking after prices gained buoyed by firm trend at the spot market

Higher sowing activities due to the high rates obtained by farmers last year resulted in higher production

Better production prospects have been keeping overall sentiments weak.

CHANA:

Chana trading range for the day is 4802-4894.

Chana settled flat as improved rains boosted hopes of better sowing and aided growth of the kharif pulses.

Farmers completed sowing of kharif pulses on 9.77 million hectares by Aug. 30, down from 10.42 million hectares

NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks dropped by 217 tonnes to 50889 tonnes.

In Delhi spot market, chana fell down by -49.05 rupee to end at 4838.45 rupee per 100 Kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13515-14275.

Jeera gained as thin supplies in the spot market supported buying though rains in Gujarat state limited upside

Indian jeera exports rise by 40 pc in quantity due to Syria unrest

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 106 tonnes to 10519 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera dropped -108.65 rupees to end at 14905 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5523-5943.

Turmeric fell due to a drop in overseas enquiries and a revival in rains that could help improve yield

Prospects of pick-up in sowing in major producing areas amid heavy rainfall also weighed on prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 1 tonnes to 10252 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5582.4 rupees dropped by -6.35 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY CALL:

  • SELL NATURAL GAS MCX SEPT BELOW 147 SL 149.50 TGT 145.50-144.25-142.50.
  • BUY GOLD MCX OCT ABOVE 31950 SL 31870 TGT 31990-32035-32095.
  • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 64100 SL 63880 TGT 64320-64560-64720.
  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 448.50 SL 445 TGT 450.20-452.80-454

Commodities Outlook 07 Sep’2012

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31150-31976.

Gold settled flat on profit booking after gaining on news of ECB’s plans for a potentially unlimited bond-buying program

Holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds hit a record high of 72.1 million ounces, or 2,044 tonnes

ECB interest rates at 0.75% versus 0.50% expected and 0.75% prior

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 61196-64002.

Silver gains but dropped from high’s as rupee shown firmness and snapped three-day losing streak boosted by corporate dollar sales

Silver extended gains even as the industrial metal remained firmly in overbought territory measured by RSI.

BOE keeps the interest rate at 0.50% and keeps the asset purchase target at 375B.

Silver is trading above 50DMA, which is at 56456, with intraday support seen at 61196 and resistance at 64002.

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5250-5482.

Crude oil held on to strong gains after government report showed oil supplies fell significantly last week.

Crude oil inventories fell by 7.4mbls compared to expectations for a decline of 5.3mbls.

Market looked ahead on non-farm payrolls which will allow investors to gauge the strength of the labor market.

Crude is holding with a support at 5250 and resistance will be likely at 5482.

COPPER:

Copper trading range for the day is 429.3-441.1.

Copper dropped despite supportive news that the ECB will undertake an aggressive bond-buying program.

Copper paused to digest the news of the ECB’s program as well as the bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold.

Copper also had a muted reaction to U.S. data that showed the claims for jobless benefits fell last week

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 213225mt that is down by -1825mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 104.03-106.83.

Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node as European Central Bank announced to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.75%

ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank would introduce unlimited amounts of short-term debt buying program

ECB pushed new unlimited government bond purchasing plan, while US ADP’s data was much better than forecasts

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 945250mt that is down by -2800mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 883.9-922.

Nickel dropped but downside limited as data from the was better than expectation

Germany was objected to the ECB’s bond purchasing, increasing risks for bond buying.

ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a new bond-buying program dubbed “Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs)”

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 121152mt that is up by 1098mt.

NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 152.8-162.4.

Natural gas gains as a report from the EIA showed U.S. gas supplies rose less-than-expected last week.

EIA said in its report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended August 31 rose by 28 bcf.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.402 trillion cubic feet as of last week.

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 152.8 and resistance will be likely at 162.4.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 107.8-111.2.

Aluminium dropped as investors confidence cooled after weakening possibility of policy easing by the Fed

Markets expect the US non-farm payrolls will continue to grow mildly since US economic figures came in better than anticipated

ECB interest rates at 0.75% versus 0.50% expected and 0.75% prior.

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4866400mt that is down by  -8225mt.

REF SOYA OIL:

Ref soyaoil trading range for the day is 802.13-813.23.

Ref soyaoil dropped on some profit booking but downside was limited as good demand in spot market due supported prices

Overall demand is expected to pick up which will support the market sentiments in medium term.

Soybean production in 2012 is likely to be more than last year but heavy rainfall in central India remains a concern

At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up by 4.65 rupee to 802.65 rupees 10 kgs.

WHEAT:

Wheat trading range for the day is 1523-1569.

Wheat fell on expectations that the government could release additional wheat from its warehouses to ease shortages

India has decided to make available 1.3 million tonnes of additional wheat for open sale in September and October

Millers can now request supplies amounting to up to 1.3 million tonnes out of a total of 3 million tonnes agreed by ministers

In Delhi wheat prices gained 1.95 rupee to end at 1573.2 rupees per 10 kg.

JEERA:

Jeera trading range for the day is 13978-14654.

Jeera gained on short covering on hopes of exports may pick up, though higher production concerns limited uptrend.

The total arrivals remain unchanged at 4,000 bags, while demand was seen for around 5,000 bags.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 458 tonnes to 10625 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera gained 53 rupees to end at 15138.7 rupees per 100 kg.

TURMERIC:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 5878-6318.

Turmeric gained on rising demand ahead of festive seasons along with lower sowing in the major producing regions.

Reports of stockiest holding onto stocks supported the rates at these levels however.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 484 tonnes to 10253 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5588.75 rupees gained by 116.75 rupees.

TODAY’S COMMODITY ADVICE:

  • BUY COPPER MCX NOV ABOVE 434 SL 432 TGT 436-438
  • BUY SOYABEAN NCDEX OCT ABOVE 4010 SL 3980 TGT 4038-4060
  • CRUDE OIL MCX SEP BELOW 5320 SL 5355 TGT 5295-5270

Commodity Market Outlook 06 Sep’2012

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31363-31595.

Gold dropped from highs as investors sat on the sidelines on the eve of the European Central Bank meeting.

Reports of ECB bond-buying plans boosted the euro and helped push down yields on Spanish and Italian bonds

India may raise an import duty for a third time this year to curb purchases and reduce a record current-account deficit.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 61335-62461.

Silver dropped on profit booking after prices supported on reports concerning some details of ECB’s bond purchasing plan.

Demand for bullion in India, remained dull with buyers shying from making purchases

Holdings at ishares silver trust rose by 91.26 tonnes to 9734.23 tonnes

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5252-5382.

Crude inched up in seesaw trade ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a U.S. August payrolls report

Most eastern Louisiana refineries affected by Isaac have restarted production since the storm passed

Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -4.9M PREV: 3.8M. Actual is at 8.30PM.

COPPER:

Copper gained on reports that ECB will unveil a new government bond-buying program to control euro debt crisis

Stimulus measures or monetary easing intended to relaunch economic growth would strongly benefit metals demand growth

A forecast deficit in copper supply this year however was supporting the metal price.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215050mt that is down by  -3750mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 103.33-106.23.

Zinc gained as market expects Draghi will hint to take action to help ease investors’ concerns over European debt crisis

Base metal price hike was mainly due to improved risk appetite on bond-buying program from the euro zone.

Moody’s slashed Ireland’s credit rating from Aaa to A3, and Portugal’s credit rating from Aaa to Baa3

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 948050mt that is down by  -1500mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 887.23-911.

Nickel ended with gains boosted by Draghi’s new round of bond purchasing program

Draghi has said firmly that the main responsibility of the ECB is to intervene in bond markets

According to two officials from the European Central, the ECB will purchase bond unlimitedly.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 120054mt that is up by  330mt..

 NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 153.73-162.73.

Natural gas moved sharply lower as market participants followed updated weather forecasts.

Market shifted their focus to the EIA’s weekly report on natural gas inventories.

Today natural gas storage: EXP: 40B PREV: 66B. Actual is at 8.00 PM.

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 153.73 and resistance will be likely at 162.73.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 106.58-110.88.

Aluminium gained on reports that European officials said ECB may buy unlimited amounts of government debt

US Labor Department announced revised non-farm productivity rose 2.2% in 2Q, better than market anticipations.

Moody’s slashed Ireland’s credit rating from Aaa to A3, and Portugal’s credit rating from Aaa to Baa3

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4874625mt that is down by  -3850mt.

SOYABEAN:

Ref soyaoil trading range for the day is 802.13-813.23.

Ref soyaoil dropped on some profit booking but downside was limited as good demand in spot market due supported prices

Overall demand is expected to pick up which will support the market sentiments in medium term.

Soybean production in 2012 is likely to be more than last year but heavy rainfall in central India remains a concern

At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up by 4.65 rupee to 802.65 rupees 10 kgs.

CRUDE PALM OIL:

CPO trading range for the day is 552.33-563.33.

Crude palm oil prices slipped on market expectations of rising stockpiles in the world’s second biggest producer.

Palm oil prices have been treading water even though the U.S. soy market hit a record high the previous day

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said last week that August exports rose 18% to 1.45 million tons.

Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 3.00 rupees and settled at 551.70 rupees.

WHEAT:

Wheat trading range for the day is 1520-1580.

Wheat gains tracking firm spot demand after good gains in the last session though the selling pressure in spot markets

The demand remains steady ahead of the peak festive season and could pick up in case prices fall further.

FCI selling has had a considerable effect on the proceedings in what is normally a busy season.

In Delhi wheat prices gained 13.75 rupee to end at 1571.25 rupees per 10 kg.

TODAY’S ADVICE FOR COMMODITY CALL:

    • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 62020 SL 61800 TGT 622240-62480
    • CRUDE MCX SEPT BUY ABOVE 5340 SL 5310 TGT 5370-5400
    • MENTHA OIL MCX SEP BUY ABOVE 1360 SL 1348 TGT 1365-1375