BULLION:
Gold October futures are trading at $1368, up by 0.51%. The dollar index is trading marginally down at present at 81.18, supporting the gains in gold prices. SPDR, the largest bullion-backed ETF marginally declined by 0.03% and settled at 912 tons from the previous day’s closing. From the derivatives point of view, prices, volumes and open interest have increased an indication that investors are more confident that prices may go up and are attracting fresh buying. This may support gold prices to trade up. In the European session, the current account balance and trade balance are expected to remain positive, which would support gains in the euro and cause gold prices to go up. During the
US session, non-farm productivity and housing numbers are expected to remain weak, which would weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Concerns of a tapering of the quantitative easing could also cause gold prices to fluctuate. Gold prices may witness a gap-up opening due to the Indian markets remaining closed yesterday and gold prices at the international market settled on a higher note. This morning, gold prices are trading up by 0.51%. Therefore, a higher opening in the domestic market may be witnessed. Hence, we expect gold prices to remain higher on the back of the weakness in the dollar index and other asset classes. Overall, we recommend remaining on the buying side in today’s session.
Gold Projected High Range at 29192-29435
Gold Projected Low Range at 29045-28803
Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 29338-29531-29725
Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 28853-28561-28368
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 29046
Silver Projected High Range at 46586-47024
Silver Projected Low Range at 46356-45919
Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 46844-47204-47567
Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 45969-45454-45094
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 46329
BASE METALS:
We anticipate base metals to witness a positive opening at the MCX after yesterday’s holiday. Fundamentally, nickel inventories are maintaining at their highest level at 2,05,878 MT while the cancelled warrants of lead fell to the lowest level since October’ 12 at 98,975 MT, indicating poor consumption demand. Copper o n the other hand should also remain weak, supported by rising T C/RC charges. Furthermore, we have witnessed a recent rally in iron-ore prices, which have moved from $129.9/dry MT at the beginning of the month to $141.2/dry MT supported by higher Chinese demand and the weakness in the dollar. Overall, we might see the weakness in the dollar remain supportive for base metals. However, weak equities and poor inventory releases might cap gains in the afternoon. Buying at dips is be recommended for the day.
Copper Projected High Range at 451-453
Copper Projected Low Range at 450-448
Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 452-454-456
Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 448-446-444
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 450
Nickel Projected High Range at 910-915
Nickel Projected Low Range at 908-903
Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 913-917-921
Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 903-898-894
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 907
CRUDE:
Crude oil-related cues such as the US Department of Energy’ mixed to marginally positive weekly inventory data were released on Wednesday. The US’ crude oil Inventories fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 2.81 million barrels, higher than expectations of a drop in the range of 1.5 million barrels. Additionally, gasoline stocks fell along with the drop in Cushing, the delivery point for US WTI crude while distillates stocks and refinery utilization rate were broadly weaker; the inventory report extended the market’s optimism that US oil demand led by the seasonal summer driving season is continuing for now. On the key economic and market cues to watch for today, Asian equities are mostly trading weak on the back of mixed cues from the US economic releases and pressed by a sharp fall in US equity indices overnight. During the day, the euro-zone’s current account balance and trade balance will be closely watched, whereas the repayments of the LTRO from the EU region banks would also be watched closely. In the evening session, the US housing releases in the form of building permits and housing starts might show a continued increase, though the pace might slow down a bit. There are a few more economic releases from the US, which may also remain in line with expectations. Locally, the rupee has remained flat this morning and did not have much of an impact on crude oil prices.
Crude Projected High Range at 6541-6585
Crude Projected Low Range at 6510-6466
Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6569-6602-6636
Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6481-6426-6393
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6514
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 207-209
Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 205-202
Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 209-210-212
Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 203-200-198
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 205
Mentha Oil:
Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 855-868
Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 849-836
Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 862-874-885
Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 836-821-809
Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 847
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
Buy Natural Gas above 212 sl 210 Tgt 214
Buy Mentha Oil Mcx Aug above 863 sl 855 Tgt 870
ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:
DATE | TIME | Region | Event | Period | Survey | Prior |
16.08.2013 | 13:30 | EC | ECB Current Account SA | Jun | — | 19.6B |
16.08.2013 | 14:30 | EC | CPI MoM | Jul | -0.50% | 0.10% |
16.08.2013 | 14:30 | EC | Trade Balance SA | Jun | — | 14.6B |
16.08.2013 | 18:00 | US | Nonfarm Productivity | 2Q P | 0.60% | 0.50% |
16.08.2013 | 18:00 | US | Unit Labor Costs | 2Q P | 1.30% | -4.30% |
16.08.2013 | 18:00 | US | Housing Starts | Jul | 905K | 836K |
16.08.2013 | 18:00 | US | Building Permits | Jul | 948K | 911K |
16.08.2013 | 19:25 | US | Univ. of Michigan Confidence | Aug P | 85.3 | 85.1 |
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