Twinkle Twinkle Little Star Bullion & Base Metals are Shining Stars


BULLION:

Gold October futures are trading at $1368, up by 0.51%. The dollar index is trading marginally down at present at 81.18, supporting the gains in gold prices. SPDR, the largest bullion-backed ETF marginally declined by 0.03% and settled at 912 tons from the previous day’s closing. From the derivatives point of view, prices, volumes and open interest have increased an indication that investors are more confident that prices may go up and are attracting fresh buying. This may support gold prices to trade up. In the European session, the current account balance and trade balance are expected to remain positive, which would support gains in the euro and cause gold prices to go up. During the

US session, non-farm productivity and housing numbers are expected to remain weak, which would weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Concerns of a tapering of the quantitative easing could also cause gold prices to fluctuate. Gold prices may witness a gap-up opening due to the Indian markets remaining closed yesterday and gold prices at the international market settled on a higher note. This morning, gold prices are trading up by 0.51%. Therefore, a higher opening in the domestic market may be witnessed. Hence, we expect gold prices to remain higher on the back of the weakness in the dollar index and other asset classes. Overall, we recommend remaining on the buying side in today’s session.

Gold Projected High Range at 29192-29435

Gold Projected Low Range at 29045-28803

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 29338-29531-29725

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 28853-28561-28368

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 29046

Silver Projected High Range at 46586-47024

Silver Projected Low Range at 46356-45919

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 46844-47204-47567

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 45969-45454-45094

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 46329

BASE METALS:

We anticipate base metals to witness a positive opening at the MCX after yesterday’s holiday. Fundamentally, nickel inventories are maintaining at their highest level at 2,05,878 MT while the cancelled warrants of lead fell to the lowest level since October’ 12 at 98,975 MT, indicating poor consumption demand. Copper o n the other hand should also remain weak, supported by rising T C/RC charges. Furthermore, we have witnessed a recent rally in iron-ore prices, which have moved from $129.9/dry MT at the beginning of the month to $141.2/dry MT supported by higher Chinese demand and the weakness in the dollar. Overall, we might see the weakness in the dollar remain supportive for base metals. However, weak equities and poor inventory releases might cap gains in the afternoon. Buying at dips is be recommended for the day.

Copper Projected High Range at 451-453

Copper Projected Low Range at 450-448

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 452-454-456

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 448-446-444

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 450

Nickel Projected High Range at 910-915

Nickel Projected Low Range at 908-903

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 913-917-921

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 903-898-894

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 907

CRUDE:

Crude oil-related cues such as the US Department of Energy’ mixed to marginally positive weekly inventory data were released on Wednesday. The US’ crude oil Inventories fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 2.81 million barrels, higher than expectations of a drop in the range of 1.5 million barrels. Additionally, gasoline stocks fell along with the drop in Cushing, the delivery point for US WTI crude while distillates stocks and refinery utilization rate were broadly weaker; the inventory report extended the market’s optimism that US oil demand led by the seasonal summer driving season is continuing for now. On the key economic and market cues to watch for today, Asian equities are mostly trading weak on the back of mixed cues from the US economic releases and pressed by a sharp fall in US equity indices overnight. During the day, the euro-zone’s current account balance and trade balance will be closely watched, whereas the repayments of the LTRO from the EU region banks would also be watched closely. In the evening session, the US housing releases in the form of building permits and housing starts might show a continued increase, though the pace might slow down a bit. There are a few more economic releases from the US, which may also remain in line with expectations. Locally, the rupee has remained flat this morning and did not have much of an impact on crude oil prices.

Crude Projected High Range at 6541-6585

Crude Projected Low Range at 6510-6466

Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6569-6602-6636

Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6481-6426-6393

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6514

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 207-209

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 205-202

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 209-210-212

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 203-200-198

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 205

Mentha Oil:

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 855-868

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 849-836

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 862-874-885

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 836-821-809

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 847

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS

Buy Natural Gas above 212 sl 210 Tgt 214

Buy Mentha Oil Mcx Aug above 863 sl 855 Tgt 870

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

DATE TIME Region Event Period Survey Prior
16.08.2013 13:30 EC ECB Current Account SA Jun 19.6B
16.08.2013 14:30 EC CPI MoM Jul -0.50% 0.10%
16.08.2013 14:30 EC Trade Balance SA Jun 14.6B
16.08.2013 18:00 US Nonfarm Productivity 2Q P 0.60% 0.50%
16.08.2013 18:00 US Unit Labor Costs 2Q P 1.30% -4.30%
16.08.2013 18:00 US Housing Starts Jul 905K 836K
16.08.2013 18:00 US Building Permits Jul 948K 911K
16.08.2013 19:25 US Univ. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 85.3 85.1

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