BULLION:
Gold futures are trading at $1291, down 0.80%. The dollar index is trading marginally down by 0.10%, limiting the fall in gold prices. The Dallas Federal Reserve president Fisher said that the Fed will consider tapering the quantitative easing very soon as the US economy is improving. This may have pressurized gold prices in the morning. From the economic data point of view, German factory orders might improve and support gains in the euro, limiting the fall in gold prices. However, in the US session, the dollar is expected to remain positive on the back of a positive trade balance, which would pressurize gold prices in the evening session. Therefore, investors should remain cautious as gold prices might remain volatile Due to market dynamics in the evening session.
Gold Projected High Range at 28015-28222
Gold Projected Low Range at 28128-27921
Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 28100-28345-28589
Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 27686-27517-27272
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 27931
Silver Projected High Range at 42001-42386
Silver Projected Low Range at 42060-41676
Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 42184-42588-42992
Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 41415-41050-40646
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 41819
BASE METALS:
The base metals to witness a flat to negative opening at the MCX, supported by weak LME prices. Fundamentally, we have witnessed the stocks declining for most of the metals except nickel, while the cancelled warrants have also remained higher for copper, which should limit the downside in prices. In today’s session, a positive inventory release should limit the downside in base metals in the afternoon session. However, sentiments have remained weak in the Asian hours with Chinese shares falling across the board after the intervention by the PBOC on the money markets. Consequently, on the back of concerns over the tight monetary policy and appreciating dollar.
Copper Projected High Range at 429-431 Copper Projected Low Range at 427-426
Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 430-431-433
Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 426-424-423
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 428
Nickel Projected High Range at 853-858
Nickel Projected Low Range at 855-850
Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 855-861-867
Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 845-841-835
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 851
CRUDE:
Crude oil futures for the September delivery are at $106.40, marginally down from the previous close. In fact, today is the third day that oil prices are softening from this year’s record high of $108.93. As such, there are no major reasons as to why prices have declined but, we could say that gasoline consumption in the US might have declined on a week on week for a while due to poor weather conditions. Also, the economic releases in the last few days were less impressive. However, we are neither suggesting nor expecting any huge downtrend in prices from the current levels as the overall scenario still holds bullish. The weekly petroleum inventory data releases tomorrow and, it is likely that crude and crude product stocks might decline this week, supporting oil prices to trade higher. The refinery utilization rate that was negative for the past two weeks could be because refiners might have waited for a while to let the products (gasoline, distillate) supplies to cl ear off from the total inventory. However, since the demand still continues to be higher during the current summer driving season, which is expected to remain in force until late September should continue to support oil prices higher. We also expect the weekly petroleum data to show lower inventory levels as well as a higher refinery utilization rate. So, we continue to hold a bullish call on crude for the day as well as for the near-term. From the economic front this morning, Asian equities are mostly trading down on the back of renewed pressure over the weak Chinese credit market and appreciating yen. Fisher, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said that the US Federal Reserve was nearer to winding down QE3 yesterday. Going ahead, the markets should eye the German factory orders and the US’ trade balance in today’s session. German factory orders might improve at a slower pace in the afternoon while the US trade balance should witness a narrowing deficit in the evening and support the dollar to remain higher, which could limit the gains in oil prices. Other economic releases from the UK like manufacturing and industrial production might continue to portray improvement. However, on the back of renewed concerns over the monetary policy, we expect some weakness might be observed in commodity prices in today’s session, except that the fall in oil prices might be limited.
Crude Projected High Range at 6547-6591
Crude Projected Low Range at 6530-6486
Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6572-6610-6647
Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6485-6436-6398
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6523
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 205.25-207.15
Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 206.25-204.35
Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 206-208-210
Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 202-200-198
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 204
Mentha Oil:
Mentha oil Prices Yesterday, a drastic fall was seen in the futures market, supported by the downtrend in the spot prices. Spot prices at the Barabanki mandi were marginally lower at Rs 2.5/kg while spot prices at the Sambhal and Chandausi mandis were lower at Rs 25/kg compared to the previous day’s spot prices. According to traders, harvesting has been completed in all the major mentha growing regions of Uttar Pradesh. This is leading to lower fresh arrivals at the spot front In the Barabanki mandi, arrivals stood at 750–850 drums whereas arrivals in the Sambhal and Chandausi mandis were hovering around 200 drums and 200-250 drums respectively, lower than the arrivals over the last few days (1 drum = 180kg) According to trades sources, stockists and farmers are holding fresh crop stocks and anticipating a pick-up in prices. This situation is leading to weak supply at the spot front According to the IMD, heavy to very heavy rainfall could occur in Uttar Pradesh, which might result in poor trading activities Weather concerns along with sluggish export demand might pressurize mentha oil prices. Hence, mentha oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note today.
Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 870-893
Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 886-864
Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 879-906-934
Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 834-817-789
Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 862
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
Buy Gold Mcx Oct above 27920 sl 27821 Tgt 28022
Buy Mentha Oil Mcx Aug above 862 sl 850 Tgt 876
Buy Natural Gas Mcx Aug above 204.50 sl 203.45 Tgt 206
ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH
DATE | TIME | Region | Event | Period | Survey | Prior |
05-10 Aug | — | US | Mortgage Delinquencies | 2Q | — | 7.25% |
05-10 Aug | — | US | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | 2Q | — | 3.55% |
06-08-2013 | 10:30 | JN | Coincident Index | Jun P | 105.1 | 106 |
06-08-2013 | 14:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | Jun | 0.70% | 0.00% |
06-08-2013 | 14:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | Jun | 1.00% | -0.80% |
06-08-2013 | 15:30 | GE | Factory Orders MoM | Jun | 1.00% | -1.30% |
06-08-2013 | 18:00 | US | Trade Balance | Jun | -$43.0B | -$45.0B |
06-08-2013 | — | UK | New Car Registrations YoY | Jul | — | 13.40% |
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