Crude oil commodity trading during the week, global oil prices came under huge pressure tracking developments from the IEA (International Energy Agency) which in its report said global consumption for oil is seen increasing by 1.2 MBPD to 93.8 MBPD in 2015, lower by 165,000 BPD as compared to its own forecast in the previous month. Short-term markets sentiment was further dented by comments that Q2, 2014 consumption for the commodity fell to a near a 2 and ½ year low amidst weakening demand from world’s two largest consumers EU and China. Subdued demand from these regions forced the agency to trim its demand forecast for the current and next year as well.
As per the latest developments in the fresh week, we are seeing good fall in Asian equities along with the industrial commodities which is hurting crude oil prices as well. We saw highly disappointing Chinese Industrial production data during the weekend wherein August IP which grew by just 6.9percentage. WTI oil prices have declined over a per cent today with Chinese data along with dragging concerns over ease in global oil supply taking a toll on oil prices. Last week, already we have seen a fall by around 4percentage in Brent crude and probably some of its effect too could be getting replicated into the US Crude as the WTI in electronic session is lower to by 1.2percentage while today Brent lost around 0.6percentage to trade near two year low. We may see good gap-down opening in Indian crude today, note that Rupee has depreciated in the opening and would be a critical factor to watch during the day. We recommend selling from
Global Market View: Let us begin the week with a little sanguinity to have a good day ahead. We have already seen so much of movement in the early morning. No doubt, the markets are jittery as well as in red. The Asian markets are trading in negative after the Chinese data released over the weekend showed that industrial production in the country rose at an annualized rate of 6.9percentage in August, missing estimates for a gain of 8.8percentage and sharply lower from an increase of 9percentage a month earlier. The consequences are gold and silver fell down early morning while they have revived from the lows and currently trading at $1234 and $18.64. Today would be the day when investors might be little baffled with the trading recommendation though the overall view remains down. Oil prices have declined over a percent and the base metals too have declined with an average loss of more than half per cent.
Economic data: India Trade Balance and Exports /Imports, US Manufacturing Activity in the Empire State and Industrial Production higher levels in oil for the day. However, we need to be little cautious about volatility may remain high in US session.
Natural gas commodity trading was advancing in first half last week on anticipation of cooling demand in the US though the commodity plunged in second half following warmer weather forecasts in near–term and also appended by disappointing inventory report. US EIA showed, NG stocks jumped by 92 BCF higher than expand prior figures. Currently cooler weather has receded and is likely to be taken over by normal temperatures in East while moderately hot climate in West and North-West region. Above weather related cues may keep NG volatile in a small range. With broader view continuing to be negative side, we keep up selling bias with small possibility and profit potential for the day. Locally, Rupee movement would be watched.
Sell Silver mcx Dec Below at 41650 SL 41830 Tgt 41300
Sell Crude mcx oil Sep below at 5630 SL 5665 TP 5560