Mcx Commodity Bullion Trading had advised selling and later buying momentum in Bullion wherein we had anticipated gold commodity take support near the $1275 mark, while yesterday low was $1279. However by end of day Gold added marginal weight and currently is largely flat near the $1300 mark. While the conventional Dollar-Gold relation is not working currently wherein Gold added on account of ECB stimulus announcement; overall move continues to be in a big range. With UDSDX currently trading higher and equities too trading positive, intraday gains in the commodity may remain capped wherein we suggest traders to look for momentary trades in the commodity wherein which our calls would be purely dependent on Technical factors during the day. Gold was highly volatile yesterday; thanks to the ECB meeting while finally ended the day little changed at Comex to $1300, higher 0.5percentage on a day to day comparison. Gold commodity for Feb expiry at MCX too traded in a similar fashion with commodity adding 0.2percentage by closing to Rs 28035 per 10 Gms
Global Market Analysis: It was all about ECB meeting and comments from the ECB officials which drove good volatility in the markets across asset classes yesterday. Mario Drag committed to a quantitative easing program worth at least1 Trillion Euros to counter the threat of a deflationary which pushed Euro lower while US Dollar index splurged over a percent moving over the fresh multi year highs of 94.Euro currency slipped and currently trading at 1.1365 level, a sharp cut of over 2percentage last day. Economic Data: Man PMI numbers from Euro area and US watched
We had a Sell – Buy strategy for Silver as well which worked fine however for the day; mixed cues from equities, currencies and also base metals are keeping us on a cautionary note in silver commodity as well. We also advice, Selling the ratio on pullback while that should have worked well with traders initiating the strategy as Silver by end gained. For today, we have hold view in strategy too Silver continued to outperform with the commodity rising around 1.3percentage to $ 18.35 per ounce at Comex markets Silver MCX also closed higher though gains were less due to Rupee appreciation. Silver MCX added 0.4percentage to Rs 40080per Kg
EIA Inventory numbers showed stocks fell by 216 BCF in the US against expectations of a reading near 226 BCF and thus supporting the downside. On weather, while US CPC chart for 8-14days forecast still suggest cooling to expand, other weather forecasts have turned for largely warmer weather creating a mixed view over US climatic conditions in coming few days. We hold a cautious approach in the commodity today. Technically, NG NYMEX is hovering near important supports and break below the same could lead to huge fall in coming sessions. Natural Gas had a hell of a session wherein we had a moderately bullish bias as weather related cues supported though weaker inventory numbers pushed it down NG NYMEX contract for Feb expiry fell 4.6percentage to a $2.83 per MMBTU mark. NG Jan expiry at MCX too fell 4percentage to Rs 172 per MMBTU
Commodity Trading Tip
BUY MCX NATURAL GAS (JAN) ABOVE 173 SL BELOW 170 TARGET 176-179
SELL MCX ZINC (JAN ) BELOW 130 SL ABOVE 132 TGT 129-128
Mcx Crude oil was trading in a bearish mode. The supply glut from OPEC region is being appended with continue supply increase in the US wherein expectations of a highly disappointing weekly Inventory report pressed the commodity lower overnight towards the $48 per barrel mark, losing another 4percentage at the WTI.As per Bloomberg survey, stocks probably rose by 700,000 barrels last week whereas product inventories are seen increasing at a hefty rate for gasoline and distillate. As we also said yesterday, product stocks for gasoline and distillate are seen rising sharply by over 4.5 and near 2 million barrels respectively depicting the scenario wherein demands in the US still stay shallow. If we add the early morning report from API on the same side, news reports suggested that the Cushing stocks rose by 482,000however, crude stockpiles slumped by 4 million barrels. While product numbers were unavailable to us, we feel fall in crude stocks could be due to lower imports or higher than normal refinery runs which indirectly may act negative on product side. This calls for a case wherein DoE stocks data may see mixed to weaker reading. We recommend selling the commodity on small pullbacks today.
Global Markets Snapshot: Asian equity markets are on a mixed to negative note as they continue to take negativity out of falling oil prices whereas speculation about Greece exiting the Euro zone too hurt overall trading sentiment. In the currency front, political developments in EU region and talks that speculation from QE continued to drag the Euro below the critical 1.19 mark whereas the Dollar Index surged ahead towards the 91.75 mark. In commodities, WTI Crude oil continued falling further breaching the $48 mark at the WTI where as Base metals finished on a broadly weaker note. Bullion however gained weight as a safe haven approach amidst fall in equities and other currencies.
Economic data: Economic data: German Retail Sales and Unemployment Change, EU region CPI Flash Estimate YoY and Unemployment Rate, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance and Crude oil Inventory numbers
No major developments over weather with expectations continue to be foe a broadly normal temperatures over the next two weeks in the US. As we said yesterday, temperature forecast in 6-10days and 8-14 days from CPC are showing cooler short-term and warmer trend towards mid of Jan supporting negative view. The inventory aspect though may create good volatility as expectations stand for around 120 BCF worth of withdrawals against just near 25BCF last week. As risk remains high; we recommend sell bias in the commodity with strict SL today.Natural Gas Feb saw no major movement yesterday where in the commodity during early Asian session on Tuesday traded with gains of near 2percentage and finally finished the day with near similar rise to $2.93 per MMBTUAt MCX, NG commodity adjusted with the movement in international markets in last two days and finished with a loss of around 3.75percentage which may lead to moderate positive opening.
Commodity Trading Tips
Sell Natural gas Mcx Jan below at 185 sl above 190 Tgt 180
Sell Copper Mcx Feb below 191 sl above 195 Tgt 185
Mcx Bullion Trading as of early morning quote on Tuesday Gold is trading modestly in the green, probably taking support out of weaker equities in Asia region. Gold added around 0.5percentage to trade nea$1187 per ounce mark however we believe broad bias for to commodity continues to be down and we might see gains getting trimmed as the day progresses. We are not having any major data variable in Euro session so political developments might take upper hand however in US hours, consumer confidence data which is seen positive might weigh on the Bullion complex. As per Bloomberg survey, the reading is seen moving higher towards 94 mark against prior month data near 88 which if comes like this should support further optimism in USDX and indirectly weigh on Bullion. We maintain selling bias in the yellow metal from higher levels for the day, however locally any major changes in Rupee needed to be watched closely.
Global Market View: The week started on muted notes traders came out post Christmas holidays with participation still remaining dim. Equity markets were largely calm though we did saw good movement in currencies and commodities. As of early morning session today, Asian equity markets are mostly in the red tracking weaker Euro, GBP and the Yen against the USDX which hit its fresh five year high near the 90.25 mark. In major developments globally, Euro currency fell towards1.2150 mark as traders and investors assessed the result of Greece election. Greek PM failed in his third and final attempt to get enough backing for his presidential candidate making the case that Greece would be forced for early elections and might de-stabilize its bailout program. As Euro fell, Dollar gained while Bullion contracted at a good rate, especially in the evening session on Monday.
We had maintained a sell stance in the commodity last day though the intensity of fall despite the lack of any major data was surprising. Silver being a high beat commodity also took cues from fall in Base metals and thus fell almost double of Gold, nod doubt Ratio moved higher. We had the Chinese industrial profits data yesterday which fueled speculation that HSBC manufacturing PMI would also be lower around 49.5 indicating contraction in the segment and should further weigh on industrial commodities including silver. We maintain sell bias in the commodity today though on Ratio, buying only on small dips in advised. Silver too scaled lower yesterday with the commodity losing at a higher rate of 2.25percentage to $15.77 per ounce at Comex for active March contract Silver MCX contract for same month’s expiry too went lower by a near similar rate to Rs 36485 per Kg.
Commodity Trading Tips
Sell Copper Feb Mcx below 403 Sl 406 Tgt 400
Sell Silver Mcx Mar below 36600 SL 36800 Tgt 36100
Mcx Commodity trading for bullion is seen steady up by 0.20percentagerespectively for gold and silver. We believe the commodities are expected to maintain their sideways trend in the very near term while the overall scenario still holds down. As long as the USD index continues to trade strong we shall not suggest any change in the trend of bullion and remain short from higher levels. However, we also expect that being the year end and if the global equities continue to trade positive then possibly bullion may also remain down. Hence, selling both gold and silver from higher levels would be suggested. The macro picture is still bearish for bullion especially gold, as the Federal Reserve is seen moving closer to an increase in borrowing costs and a strong USD curbing demand.
This morning silver is seen trading at $16.06 up by 0.22percentagefrom its previous close. We believe the commodity may move in line with gold so we suggest selling from higher levels. Silver after rising around 9 percentage in past two weeks once again comeback to its downward stance wherein the commodity lost more than triple the amount of loss seen in gold in the past week. Silver Comex March expiry as of Friday evening (IST) was seen around 6.75percentage to $15.90 per ounce wherein in Indian markets at, Silver same months conclusion was lower by 5.3percentage to Rs36650 per Kg.
Global Market View: US stocks continued to appreciate in Friday’s trade as energy shares bounced from their lows of the first few days of the previous week. US equity indices had the best weekly gains in over 3 years with the S&P 500 gaining close to 5percent from the lows of Tuesday. Asian markets are all in the green, tracking the positive close of the US markets. SGX nifty too is trading on a positive note this morning, up by 35 points and is expected to open on a positive note.US dollar has appreciated with respect to all the most important currencies on Friday with the Dollar index trading higher than 89.50. Euro is trading at 1.2241, pound at 1.5638 and the Japanese Yen at 119.37 after tender a low of 119.63 in early trade this morning.
Economic data is to be unconfined through the Indian marketplace hours but home sales data from the US markets which is due to be on the rampage later in the evening is likely to consequence the markets
Commodity Trading Tips
Sell Copper Feb Mcx below 411 SL 415 Tgt 405
Sell Nickel Dec Mcx below 1000 SL 1015 Tgt 985
Sell Crude Jan Mcx below 3700 SL 3760 Tgt 3560
Mcx Commodity Market Trading, DoE inventory data showed fall in crude stocks by 847,000 barrels which was moderately lower than markets expectations of as reading near 2.5 to 2.2 million barrels. Also negatively stocks at delivery point for WTI, Cushing gained heavily by2.92 million barrels whereas product inventories were mixed. Distillate fuels supplies which are mainly tracked amidst the winter season fell modestly by 207,000 barrels though gasoline stockpiles increased at a very high rate of 5.2 million barrels depicting the case that there is no major demand for the two going in the US. Also note, very sharp increase in product stocks comes despite the fact that refinery utilization fell by 1.9percentage which means that overall oil supply in the country remain very high. Separately, Iran’s government officials commented “the country will under no conditions let go of its share” of the market given restrictions on its exports in recent years. As of the latest quote on Thursday morning, oil at NYMEX Feb expiry is trading near last day’s closing of $55.80 per barrel. Overall we believe, oversold nature of the commodity and its broad negative fundamentals might continue to keep it in a consolidation mode though broad pressure from higher levels would continue. Advice ranged to sell trade in intraday.
Global Market View: US stocks have rallied last night after the US Fed has replaced the term considerable time in the statement. In her statement, FED chairman Janet Yelled has indicated that the US FED would observe the economy for the next two meetings and could likely look at an affirmative action bymid 2015. US stocks rallied after the announcement with the most of the major US indices gaining more than 2percent; Asian markets are trading on a positive note following the strong close of the US markets. SGX nifty is trading on a positive at 8135.00 up by 90 points and is expected to open on a positive note for the day.US dollar has appreciated with respect to most of its trading partners after the change in tone of the US FED signaling a possibility of the a rate hike in a few months depending on the incoming economic data. Euro is flat at1.2340 Pound is trading lower at 1.5583 and Yen has depreciated trading at 118.57.
As per news report from Bloomberg, weather forecaster’s Corp in Andover, Massachusetts said some pockets of the US would see good amount of cooling in last week of December whereas the outlook from US CPC for 6-10 days also turned to cooler temperatures as compared to the prior day. We also have the weekly Stocks report today wherein expectations stand for a fall of around 60BCF. Though this is lower than last five year average; overall we feel moderate changes in weather may support the commodity from lower levels. We hold a buying to range bias in the commodity today. Traders can also plan Crude/NG Ratio selling.
Commodity Intraday Tips
Sell Nickel below 1002 SL 1017 Tgt 980
Sell Copper Feb below 409 SL 412 Tgt 404
Mcx Commodity Trading In bullion are seeing fresh decline of over 1percentage in Gold commodity though locally may not see such huge fall as Rupee has depreciated afresh in early morning session. We believe, Bullion are losing weight before the Fed’s two-day policy meeting to assess the timing of interest-rate increases amid slumping energy prices and signs of an improving economy. In to the international markets, if the Comex gold falls below $1188, then locally we might see a huge drop. Hence, we suggest selling the precious metal from higher levels at the local market while globally slight upticks would make a fresh selling opportunity in the bullion complex today. bullion sector at the global market declined heavily yesterday with the appreciation in the USD and cautiousness ahead of the US Fed meeting later during the week also pushing the commodity lower Gold Comex Feb expiry contract fell around 1.2percentageyesterday to $1207 per ounce whereas locally, Rupee depreciation and heavy inflows in terms of imports aided some support to MCX Gold which added 0.4percentage to Rs 27320.However, NCDEX Gold Hedge which takes direct clues from Comex and Rupee settled moderately lower. Spread between the two increased & likely that same may see some more increase in near-term.
Global Market View: Troubled by the falling oil prices, equity markets continued to slide in yesterday’s trade as well. S&P 500 closed at 1989.63 down by 0.63percentage.In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a mixed to negative note with respect to the dollar. US dollar has remained largely range bound yesterday wherein index stood at 88.42. Japanese Yen managed to appreciate as investors seek safe assets in times of uncertainty. Yen is currently trading at 117.76. Euro is trading at 1.2446 with no major change. Locally, we seen trade deficit widened to$16.86B due to a high increase in gold imports last month. One positive note, exports have increased by 7.27percentage.
Overall we maintain selling stance in the commodity for intraday wherein the big sell-off yesterday is also hurting our weekly bias for the metal. We had expected Silver to perform better than Gold as mixed base metals and heavy weakness expected in yellow metal due to Dollar, FED meeting and subdued Chinese demand was not seen impacting silver much. However, single session sell-off has turned the trend on the other side wherein which now we remain sell in Silver while recommend exiting Gold/Silver Ratio selling call which we gave on Friday with loss Silver too fell heavily yesterday closing lower by around3percentage to $16.55 per ounce at Comex whereas Spot markets saw a further extended fall in late night session in the US and the same is getting reflected in early morning trade in Comex today morning as Silver loses over 2.5percentage.Silver locally saw a decline in the range of 1percentage to Rs 38315per Kg mark with Rupee coming to the rescue.
Commodity Market Tips
Sell Silver Mar Mcx below 38400 SL 38900 Tgt 38000
Sell Copper Feb Mcx below 413 SL 417 Tgt 406
Mcx Commodity Crude Oil traded near a five-year low as the United Arab Emirates said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will refrain from cutting output even if prices slumped to $40 a barrel. OPEC won’t immediately change its Nov. 27 decision to keep the group’s collective output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, SuhailAl-Mazrouei said. Venezuela supports an OPEC meeting given the price slide, though the country hasn’t officially requested one, an official at Venezuela’s foreign ministry said Dec. 12. The group is due to meet again on June 5.Courtesy: Bloomberg—We believe it’s the oil supply which is pulling down oil prices lower and looks like the short to medium term scenario especially from the price point of view the trend would remain down.
Global Market View: US markets on Friday continued to decline as investors seemed to be worried about the global growth. S&P 500 closed at 2002.33 down by 1.62 percent. Markets were waiting for the Japanese elections results that were to be released on Sunday, however the major consensus points toward a win for Abe. The election result has been declared and as expected Abe has secured another term as prime minister, which warrants a continued effort towards introducing structural, reforms, and devaluing the Japanese Yen. SGX Nifty Dec futures are continuing to trade on a negative note at 8234.00 after a stable session on Friday, and is expected to remain decline further for the day. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a negative note with respect to the dollar. US dollar has remained largely range bound as markets awaited election results from Japan .Japanese Yen too remained flat at 118.74. Euro is trading at$1.2449 after appreciating against the dollar.
Today’s Economic data is to be released today: Japanese large MFG index came in below expectations at 12; however Mfg outlook declined to 9 against a previous level of 13. Later in the day, we have the Indian WPI data that is due at 12pm and in the evening US Empire manufacturing and industrial production data is to be released.
Mcx Commodity Natural gas front, this morning surprisingly the January future NYMEX traded Henry hub prices are seen trading higher by 2.53percentage from its previous close. We might mere expect it to be a short covering state for the reason why prices have recovered sharply however, going forward during the day we do not see any major rise in the prices further in fact, we could take a short from higher levels. Also, from the technical front we are expecting initially prices may decline which can be considered as a sell trade while again from lower levels a buy recommendation could be introduced Natural gas which had been declining in the recent past saw a respite in the prices that it rose a tad to settle the week at $3.795/MMBTU
Commodity Trading Tips
Sell Copper Feb Mcx below 411 SL 413 Tgt 406
Sell Aluminum Dec Mcx below 121 SL 122 Tgt 120
Mcx Commodity Market Trading for Crude oil prices saw good cut yesterday with average losses for the Brent and WTI seen in the range of 2.75percentage to 3percentage as markets remained concerned about subdued PMI numbers from China and EU which negated the optimism of a decent data from the US whereas as markets look to take back gains after the unexpected over 4percentage rally on Monday. As of early morning trade in Asia, WTI is seen higher by a percentage near the $67.60 per barrel level wherein stronger equities across major economies in the region and huge cut in crude stocks as reported by API support. News reports showed US crude inventories tumbled by 6.5 million barrels whereas stocks at Cushing also slipped 610,000 barrels driving the early morning optimism into prices. While estimates for government backed reading to be released later tonight suggest a moderate addition in stocks of around 1-1.5 million barrels, there is a high probability of reversal after looking at the API number. We also have good amount of economic cues from EU and US which could keep oil volatile. Overall we believe, the optimism that can come in from EIA data should get negated by other broad factors like fresh oil deal between Iraq-Kirk to add export supplies by 300,000 BPD and also comments by Saudi Arabia. While risk may be on the higher side today, we recommend building short positions on higher levels today
Global Market View: Asian markets are trading on a appositive note this morning as US markets sustained to be grateful for back by constructive economic data. Production expenditure in the US grew by 1.1 percent which was much higher than the predictable 0.6 percent. All the major US indices were seen trading higher with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing up by 0.64 and 0.58 percent respectively. Japanese Yen has depreciated in yesterday’s trade higher than the119 mark under the anticipation of differing financial strategy
Economic data from china and Japan came in constructive this morning. Services and compound PMI data came in improved than probable for China and Japan. We have the Indian services and compound PMI data to be on the rampage at 10.30am. Later we have the number of data from EU, Germany and the US which should be watch personally .
No major fresh cues are seen for the commodity wherein weather related forecast continued to predict warmer temperatures in larger part of the US. Temperatures may be mostly normal or higher than average in the lower 48 states from Dec 7 through Dec16, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC and as reported by Bloomberg. We maintain selling bias in the commodity though after continued set of weakness in last few days, profit potential looks a bit low in intraday. Also we have EIA Stocks data tomorrow which could enhance volatility for today and tomorrow.
Commodity Intraday Tips
Sell Silver Mcx Mar below 37400 SL 37900 Tgt 37100
Sell Crude Mcx Dec 4230 SL 4280 Tgt 4150
Mcx Commodity Trading for Bullion opened with sharp losses with Gold lower by2percentage on Monday however volatility increased in latter half with prices managing to close significantly higher. Note that Bullion movement was not being supported by lower USD or by appreciation in the shared currency euro or even the global equities retreating tad from the highs. We believe either it could bea value buying/technical push which we are unable to justify completely at this moment. Today morning, gold is once again down by 1.2percentage wherein we might see some sort gap down in the prices from the previous close at the local market. Intraday trend looks very challenging. We may not be able to say a completely bearish trend for gold today with no major economic triggers too due in intraday. While a hint that $1188 is now crucial support level for the market. We believe traders could seek selling into the existing price correction until those levels or just wait at sidelines and decide to take a fresh stance near the suggested support levels.
Gold registered huge volatility yesterday wherein the commodity initially fell though recovered smartly and closed higher by 3.6percentage at Comex, with Feb contract shut firmly over the $1200 per ounce markMCX too aw similar move though at the time of closing,MCX Feb Gold added 3percentage to Rs 26940 per 120 Gms.
We believe, overall trend in the two commodities have-not changed by a huge move in single session. Though the price move with such intensity was never expected by us or by the markets, there should have been some huge exploratory trade on the long-side wherein the big gains also might have squeezed the bears completely in very shorter. Overall we hold selling bias in the commodity though traders should keep strict stop loss in trade. Silver followed similar trajectory wherein which its high bat nature kept its movement further sharper during the day Silver Comex active March closed higher by 7.3percentage to $16.70per ounce whereas Indian MCX Silver for same month’s closing surged 6.6percentage to Rs 37700 per Kg
Oil jumped in late hours following comments from one of the major Shale producers based in Oklahoma; Continental which said oil drilling in the US is likely to take a hit amidst lower prices and certainly that future investment too get hurt if prices continue to trade lower. Onto the aforementioned cues, note that the billionaire shale producer Harold Hamm of Continental who yesterday talked about probable decline in drilling activity had in the past also said their production levels can turn profitable even at prices of $50 a barrel. Also the EIA earlier said, major producers in the US shale can survive at lower rate which supports the medium-term downtrend for the commodity. We believe such major positive movement in prices on Monday should be taken as a positive correction after we saw almost 40percentagecut in prices from 2014 highs near $105 and yesterday’s low around $64 per barrel mark. Broad trend continues to be down, wherein initial estimates from stocks data too showed an extended enlarge by approximately 0.7 million barrels for crude. While we agree, yesterday’s unexpected movement should have had hurt traders, we believe the commodity still has potential to trade with a weaker bias. In intraday we maintain moderate selling bias into the commodity from higher levels today with strict stoploss.
Commodity Trading Tips
Sell Crude Mcx Dec below 4360 SL 4280 Tgt 4410
Sell Natural gas Mcx Dec below 253 SL 256 Tgt 247
Mcx Commodity Trading Market for Bullion is cracking down on Monday morning with both gold and silver are down by 2 and 4percentage respectively. However, the Indian rupee is also expected to weaken against the USD which might limit losses marginally in Indian markets at opening. Strategy: Those who are holding any carry forward short positions required to book at the opening and then wait for a pullback and sell again. In the early morning during the Asian markets since at opening rate itself broader markets are already down, it is imperative to trade on pullback during the early European session. We overall suggest sell from higher levels. We have loads of economic data today evening and likely that volatility may increases traders is advised to maintain proper risk-reward ratio.
Global Market View: Let us start the week with appositive note but mind you the whole commodity sector is negative this morning. Price performance: Gold and silver down by 2 and 4 per cent respectively. Base metals are closet down by 1 per cent while the oil has extended fall .Gold during the last week moved lower by around 2percentage to$1175 per ounce at Comex wherein almost all of losses coming into the commodity on the last day of the week. Prices fell around the same rate in India with losses last week standing at 2.25percentage to Rs 26170 per 10 Grams for active February expiry.
Economic data releasing today: There would be host of manufacturing data released today. We have had the Chinese numbers already this morning. Later, India’s HSBC manufacturing data @ 10:30 IST, Euro-zone manufacturing at2:30 PM IST, US ISM manufacturing index @08:30 PM IST and Halifax house price index
As said above, Silver Comex at electronic session is trading down by over 4percentage today morning wherein at one point of time, it was even weaker by 5.5percentage. Swiss vote against increasing asset based investment for Gold in its Forex reserves and subdued Chinese data is prompting huge losses in silver. Overall trend stays down, we recommend selling the commodity only on pullbacks as it has moved into oversold phase with big loss in morning session itself. EU and US PMI number watched later today. As the yellow metal slid, Silver was not far behind wherein the high beat nature of the commodity pushed it even lower during past week. As of Friday closing numbers suggest Silver Comex for active March expiry closed down by 5.5percentage to $15.50 per ounce while Indian MCX Silver for same month’s settlement was weaker by 4.5percentage to Rs 35360 per Kg.
Commodity Market Tips
Sell Copper Feb Mcx below 397 SL 400 TP 393
Sell Silver Mcx Mar below 34500 SL 35000 TP 34000