Fiscal Cliff

 Fiscal Cliff

  • In the United States, the “fiscal cliff” refers to the economic effects that could result from tax increases, spending cuts and a corresponding reduction in the US budget deficit beginning in 2013 if existing laws remain unchanged. The deficit – the difference between what the governments takes in and what it spends – is projected to be reduced by roughly half in 2013.
  • Fiscal Cliff means there is a limit over which government can borrow, once the limit is breached automatic reduction in government spending and tax increases come in effect.
  • So Basically Fiscal Cliff is an increase in taxes & reduction in government spending
  • On or around Jan. 1, about $500 billion in tax increases and $200 billion in spending cuts are scheduled to take effect. That’s equal to about four percent of GDP and can bring US economy back into recession.
  • So to avoid such disaster  US Senate will be working on Sunday ie 30th December which has happened only 18 times since 1880. If Senate is unable to come to a viable solution and fiscal cliff limits is crossed consequences will be dire as mentioned below:
  • Taxes would rise for nearly every taxpayer and many businesses.
  • Financing for most federal programs, military and domestic, would be cut.
  • More than $500 billion equals roughly 3 percent to 4 percent of gross domestic product.
  • An emergency unemployment-compensation program is expiring, which would save $26 billion but end payments to millions of Americans who remain jobless and have exhausted state benefits.
  • Medicare payments to doctors would be reduced 27 percent, or $11 billion
  • The biggest cut would be $65 billion, enacted across the board for most federal programs over the last nine months of fiscal year 2013, from January through September.

Know how the US avoids falling off the cliff?

  • Democrats and Republicans have come up with rival plans to avert the crisis. In terms of cutting the US deficit, they vary by hundreds of billions of dollars over a 10-year period.
  • President Obama wants the borrowing limit increased and raised taxes on high earners as part of any deal, but Republicans have demanded concessions such as government spending cuts.
  • Only Congress, which is controlled by the Republicans, can raise the borrowing limit. It can also still act within the next month to minimize the impact of the fiscal cliff.
  • Meanwhile, the US government has signaled it’s ready to take extraordinary measures to prevent it defaulting on its debt, but it’s unclear how much time those would buy.
  • So to avoid such disaster  US Senate will be working on Sunday ie 30th December which has happened only 18 times since 1880.

Overseas Market & Cues – 18 Sep’2012

  • Asian markets were trading lower. China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.48% or 9.92 points at 2,068.58.
  • Japan’s Nikkei was flat at 9,163.77.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was down 0.25% or 7.58 points at 3,071.14.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite was down 0.21% or 4.16 points at 1,998.19.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was down 0.42% or 32.80 points at 7,729.42.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.16% or 32.58 points at 20,690.69.
  • The US markets snap a four-day rally, pulling back from Fed-fueled multi-year highs, amid fresh geopolitical worries and following a sharp drop in oil prices. Despite the day’s pullback, all three major averages are still up more than 3% for the month.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3% or 40.27 points at 13553.1. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.17% or 5.28 points at 3178.67. Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.31% or 4.58 points at 1461.19.
  • In stock specific action Apple crossed USD 700 a share in after-hours trading after closing at a new all-time high after the company said iphone 5 sales set a record over the weekend.
  • On economic data front, factory activity in New York state contracted for a second month in a row in September, falling to its lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years as new orders shrank further.
  • In key data to watch out for in US today, housing market index is expected to rise to 38 in September.
  • In the currency space, the dollar hovers around 7-month lows against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index was below the 79 mark.
  • In commodities, Brent crude slipped to USD 111 levels in 3 minutes yesterday. It pares its losses to trade back above USD 114. In the meanwhile the US commodity futures trading commission is looking into the reason for the fall.
  • From the previous metals space, gold prices slip marginally to USD 1760 levels.
  • Indian ADRs ended lower on Monday. In the IT space, Wipro was down 0.78% at USD 8.92, Patni was down 0.21% at USD 19.06 and Infosys was up 0.08% at USD 48.19.
  • In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was down 0.32% at USD 37.02 and ICICI Bank was up 2.38% at USD 39.1. In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was down 1.22% at USD 8.88 and MTNL was down 2.04% at USD 1.44.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 0.13% at USD 7.69, Tata Motors was down 1.61% at USD 25 and Dr Reddys was down 2.83% at USD 30.93.

Market cues:

  • FIIs net buy USD 522 million in cash market on Sep 14
  • MFs net sell Rs 202 crore in cash market on Sep 14
  • As per provisional data of September 17, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 2252 crore in cash market. FIIs were net buyers of Rs 1976 cr in F&O. DIIs were net sellers of Rs 838 cr in cash market.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest market range of 5400-5700
  • Total Puts add 42.4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls adds 10.3 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5800 Call adds 22 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5700 Call adds 7.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5600 Put adds 11 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Put adds 9 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5600 Call sheds 14 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 12.3 lakh shares in OI
  • Stock Futures adds 62.2 lakh shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.1 from 1.03
  • India VIX closed at 17.78 up by 15.6%
  • FIIs in F&O on Sep 17
  • FIIs net buy Rs 1122 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int contracts up by 21420
  • FIIs net buy Rs 541 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int contracts up by 118440
  • FIIs net buy Rs 428 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int contracts up by 11715

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 04 September’2012

  • The Bse Index put up the lid at 17384 down 45 points or -0.26% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5254, down 5 points or -0.09% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 780 against declines of 635 on the NSE.
  • The stock markets closed with moderate declines today with realty being the most awful performer.
  • PMI data Purchasing Manufacturing Index was released for European countries and India Summing the data Indicates 80% Of the World Is Now in Contraction. Chinese stock market last week made 3 year low, we always say stock market discounts news well in advance and on Sunday we got the news Chinese PMI contracted first time in 9 months. Never fight the market and flow with the trend is the general hypothesis which has been proven correct before, today and in future also.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Ranbaxy, Coal India,Baja-Auto and Maruti.
  • Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sail, Tata Poer, Jindal Steel and Idfc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 6935 Contracts of Index Future, worth 190 cores with net OI decreasing by 6289 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 8 points and OI has decreased by 6289,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series. So FII have been reducing the long exposure in Index future and shorting stock futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5254 after making the higher low of 5243, but bulls were disappointed as Nifty closed below crucial level of 5260. Only we have been advocating Nifty is in Sell on Rise mode which proved again today as Nifty used the weekend development on GAAR issue to open up but selling resumed at higher levels and closed near the lows of the day.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5295 and 5315 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5238 and 5220 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5335 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.97 cores with an addition of 1.47 Lakh in OI, So shorts have started entering the system. Rollover range for September Series comes at 5400-5290. We have closed below 5290 today so we can see follow up action tomorrow bears pressing more on downside.
  • Total F&O turnover was highest ever to 0.76 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.92 lakh. Cash volumes were dismissal today.
  • 5400 CE is having highest OI of 57 lakhs with an addition of 9.5 lakhs in OI. 4900-5600 CE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • 5200 PE added 4.8 lakh in OI and having the highest  OI at 63 lakhs so 5200 is firm base at the starting of September series,4900 PE added 10 lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of 1117 cores in Index Options, so smart money is Buying 4900 PE.4900-5600 PE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • FII  sold 54 cores and DII  sold 160 cores in cash segment, Both FII and DII were sellers in cash segment second day in a row.INR closed at 55.52 . FII were again sellers of 254 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is at 5239, Trend Changer at 5303 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5290
  • 20 DMA at 5335
  • 50 DMA at 5260
  • 200 DMA at 51210
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 24 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5266 and above the level marks the track point at 5288 later zipper levels at 5311 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5244 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5222 later dipping levels near 5200 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 04 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Call – Buy above 5288 sl 5266 Tgt 5311-5333 {Or} Sell Below 5266 sl 5266 Tgt 5244-5222.

World Market View – Asian Markets, Global Market Watch

 

  • World Market View - Asian Markets, Global Market WatchAsian markets were trading mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite was flat at 2,050.71.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.11% or 20.83 points at 19,532.08.
  • Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.84% or 75.76 points at 8,908.02.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was up 0.11% or 3.20 points at 3,015.02.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite was flat at 1,905.49.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted gained 0.31% or 22.75 points at 7,394.19.
  • The US accelerate their losses in the final minutes of trading to close near session lows, with the S&P 500 closing just below the key 1,400 level, a day ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting and following reports that Spain may delay its decision on seeking a bailout. The CBOE volatility index jumped to close near 18.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.81% or 106.77 points at 13000.71. Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.05% or 32.48 points at 3048.71. Standard & Poor’s 500 shed 0.78% or 11.01 points at 1399.48.
  • On economic data front, jobless claims were unchanged last week holding at a seasonally adjusted 374,000. Consumer spending gained 0.4% in July, climbing by the most in five months. Meanwhile, income increased 0.3%.
  • In key data to watch out for in US today, factory orders are expected may grow by 2%. Also global market watch out for consumer sentiment data.
  • In the currency space, the euro stabilises after slipping to 1.24 ahead of the Jackson Hole meet.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices holding above USD 112 levels supported by supply concerns and geopolitical. Meanwhile, Nymex crude eases further to sub USD 95 levels.
  • Indian ADRs ended lower on Thursday. In the IT space, Patni was down 2.95% at USD 18.11, Infosys was down 0.8% at USD 42.41 and Wipro was down 0.62% at USD 7.98.
  • In the Telecom space, MTNL was down 9.27% at USD 1.37 and Tata Communication was up 0.61% at USD 8.2. In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 1.45% at USD 32.66 and HDFC Bank was down 0.09% at USD 34.08.
  • In the other space, Dr Reddys was down 1.35% at USD 29.89, Tata Motors was down 0.52% at USD 20.99 and Sterlite was down 0.14% at USD 7.25.

Nifty Outlook & FII Darivatives Data for 23 August’2012

The Bse Index Closes on Yesterday at 17847 down38 Points or -0.21% and the Nifty fasten store at 5413 down 8 points from the previous close or +-0.15%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.5% while the BSE Small cap index declines 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 653 against declines of 788 on the NSE.

The markets closed with judicious declines today with realty and power being the nastiest performers. Banking, healthcare and auto made some gains.

Nse India Top Gainers in Yesterday’s Trade: Ranbaxy, Bpcl, Bank of Baroda and Infosyis.

Nse India Top Losers in Yesterday’s Trade: Airtel, Idfc, Sesa Goa and Ntpc.

Stock Cipher:

  • NMDC hikes iron ore price by 8-13%.
  • This fiscal year, ONGC is planning to spend Rs 15000 cr to drill 480 wells.
  • Essar Oil is in an agreement of USD 1.2 billion with Colombia to buy crude oil.
  • Wockhardt has received a tentative US FDA nod for Anti-psychotic Drug Geodon.
  • Alstom – BHEL will be supplying turbo-generator package for Rawatbhata Nuclear Plan.

 FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 7345 Contracts of Nifty, worth 183 cores  with net OI decreasing by 3965 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 11 points and OI has decreased by 3965, FII have started booking profits Index futures. The way we fell down from 5455 NF suggests profit booking.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5413 after making the high of 5433. Bulls successfully managed to close nifty above 5400 Inspite of bad global cues which suggests strength. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5446 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5395 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5269 is not broken on closing basis.
  • As we discussed yesterday it will be a range bound day and a listless market and nifty obliged us by doing nothing. Hope traders were able to benefit the same.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.61 cores with an unwinding of 2.57 Lakh in OI, longs were unwounded by Retailers and HNI. I expect small range tomorrow probably till 5447 on higher end and 5400 on lower end with stock specific action looking at OI figure. (This is what we discussed yesterday and same happened today).
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.06 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.68 lakh, Nifty Future made a new high with pathetic volumes, Also the Cash volume were 30% lower than average which suggests distribution happening at higher levels. Be cautious on your longs and ride it till music lasts.
  • 5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 1.67 lakhs with total OI now standing at 31 lakhs, Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 0.44  lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs no major unwinding seen, 5500 CE still having  highest OI of 1 core lakhs, with fresh addition of 1.6 lakhs in OI.
  • 5300 PE added 0.8 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.07 cr which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also added 10 Lakh in OI so now traders are eyeing 5400 PE as next base for Nifty.
  • FII bought 96 cores and DII sold 230 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.57. FII again sold 230 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5386, Trend Changer at 5312 Nifty (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5389
  • 20 DMA at 5269
  • 50 DMA at 5226
  • 200 DMA at 5117
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 77
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 67. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zooper levels at 5488 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5400 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5477 later dipping levels near 5355 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 23 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5444 Sl 5422 Tgt 5466-5488 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5400 Sl 5422 Tgt 5377-5355.

Overseas Market View – US Markets

  • The US markets ended lower, on a late day reversal dragged by techs, as investors took profits. The Nasdaq  erased 9 points to close at 3,067. Earlier, the Nasdaq hit an intraday high of 2,799 its highest level since December 2000. The S&P 500 to rose to fresh 4 year highs in intraday trade, but ended the day down 0.35%. The CBOE volatility index jumped 7% to above 15 levels.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.51% or 68.06 points at 13203.58. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.29% or 8.95 points at 3067.26. Standard & Poor’s 500 shed 0.35% or 4.96 points at 1413.17.
  • In key data to watch out in the US today, investors will be looking ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes from its July meeting. Also watch out for existing home sales data that may rise to 4.5 million annual rates.
  • In the currency space, the euro rises to a 6-week high ahead of euro zone regional leaders meet this week to discuss Greece’s fiscal adjustment program. The dollar index slips below the 82 mark.
  • In commodities, crude prices gain with Brent just shy of the USD 115 mark after a report showed that stockpiles declined the most in three weeks in the US.
  • From the precious metals space, gold prices gain more than a percent on further stimulus talks. Platinum too hit a three and a half month high.
  • Indian ADRs ended higher on Tuesday. In the IT space, Wipro was up 2.13% at USD 8.16, Infosys was up 1.92% at USD 43.49, and Patni was up 0.76% at USD 18.5.
  • In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was up 1.81% at USD 8.46 and MTNL was up 0.84% at USD 1.2. In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was up 0.69% at USD 35.18 and HDFC Bank was down 0.68% at USD 34.97.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 4.87% at USD 8.19, Tata Motors was up 1.38% at USD 22.04 and Dr Reddys was up 1.81% at USD 29.89.

Overseas Market View – Asian Markets, US Markets

  • Asian markets were trading mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.62% or 123.25 points at 20,086.20.
  • Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.64% or 58.17 points at 9,150.93.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was up 0.14% or 4.37 points at 3,067.26.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite shed 0.51% or 9.91 points at 1,948.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.14% or 3.01 points at 2,109.19.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was flat at 7,495.14.
  • The US markets have their best session in nearly two weeks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterates her support for the ECB’s plans to fight the euro zone crisis and as the Dow component Cisco systems hiked its dividend 75%. The CBOE volatility index slipped to just above 14, a five-year low.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% or 85.33 points at 13250.11. Nasdaq Composite added 1.01% or 31.46 points at 3062.39. Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.71% or 9.98 points at 1415.51.
  • In economic data, weekly jobless claims rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, in line with expectations. Factory activity in the mid-atlantic area contracted for the fourth-straight month in August. And housing starts unexpectedly fell in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 746,000.
  • In the currency space, the euro gains versus the dollar, above 1.23 as Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterates her support for the ECB’s plans to fight the euro zone crisis.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices at 3 month peak following weakness in dollar and comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
  • In the precious metals space, gold prices gain on further stimulus hopes.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Thursday. In the IT space, Infosys was up 1.69% at USD 42.08, Patni was down 0.11% at USD 18.38 and Wipro was down 0.37% at USD 8.02.
  • In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was up 1.68% at USD 8.47 and MTNL was up 0.33% at USD 1.21. In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was up 0.74% at USD 35.27 and ICICI Bank was down 0.89% at USD 34.44.
  • In the other space, Tata Motors was up 1.93% at USD 21.15, Dr Reddys was up 1.43% at USD 29.73 and Sterlite was down 0.88% at USD 7.88.

Overseas Market View – F&O, Market Cues

  • The US markets ended another session flat in lackluster trade as investors digested a string of mixed economic data and earnings reports. It was a day of extremely anemic volumes. The Dow traded within a 55 point range through the day as bluechips dragged. It was only the Nasdaq that managed to eke out a half percent gain.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% or 7.36 points at 13164.78. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.46% or 13.95 points at 3030.93. Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.11% or 1.6 points at 1405.53.
  • Also better economic data is now raising doubts that the Fed would launch any fresh bond buying programme next month. The CBOE volatility index slid below 15.
  • On economic data front, consumer prices were flat for a second-straight month in July. Meanwhile US homebuilder sentiment rose in August to its highest level in more than five years. New York Fed Reserve empire state index of manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly into negative territory in August for the first time since last October.
  • In key data to watch out for in the US today, weekly jobless claims are expected to rise marginally to 365,000. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to come in at minus 6.5, after a 12.5 decline last month. Also watch out for
  • housing starts data.
  • In the currency space, the dollar firm versus the euro after the US economic data boosted treasury yields and cut expectations of more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.
  • In commodities, crude prices gain with Brent above USD 116 levels, the highest level in more than three months following a sharp drawdown in US crude stockpiles.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Wednesday. In the IT space, Infosys was up 0.56% at USD 41.38, Wipro was up 0.5% at USD 8.05 and Patni was down 1.08% at USD 18.4.
  • In the Telecom space, MTNL was up 0.5% at USD 1.206 and Tata Communication was up 0.12% at USD 8.33. In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 0.49% at USD 34.75 and HDFC Bank was down 0.65% at USD 35.01.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 0.51% at USD 7.95, Dr Reddys was down 0.37% at USD 29.31 and Tata Motors was down 0.91% at USD 20.75.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest mkt range of 5300-5500
  • Total Puts add 5.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls add 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Highest OI buildup seen in 5000 Put & 5500 Call
  • 5000 Put adds 1.3 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put adds 10.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Put adds 5.8 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5200 Put sheds 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 4900 Put sheds 13.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Call adds 4.1 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call sheds 6.95 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Call sheds 4.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 8.3 lakh shares in OI.
  • Stock Futures adds 50.6 cr shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.21 from 1.2
  • India VIX closed at 15.64 down by 2.31%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 14
  • FIIs net buy Rs 289 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts up by 7560
  • FIIs net buy Rs 411 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 46491
  • FIIs net sell Rs 428 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 7153

Market cues:

  • FIIs net buy USD 65 million in cash market on August 13
  • MFs net sell Rs 66 crore in cash market on August 13
  • As per provisional data of August 14, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 258 cr in cash market. FIIs were net buyers of Rs
  • 160 cr in F&O. DIIs were net buyers of Rs 76 cr in cash market.
  • FII sells 323 Contracts of Nifty, worth 21.28 cores with net OI increasing by 7909 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has increased by 7909, FII have started shorting the index futures in small quantity. As FII average traded price comes at a weird number of 13179 which shows they are trading in fewer volumes and mostly doing day trading.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5320 after making a high of 5330 and low of 5294 ,nifty has closed above 5300 but it has formed lower high and lower lows .As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone, cannot be broken in single attempt. Bulls are trying from past 2 days to close Nifty above 5350 but are failing each time suggesting weakness in price and eventual dip till 5260 can come in next 2 days.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5350 and after that 5380  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5286 ,Below 5260 gap filling will start till 5216 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5213 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.43 cores with an addition of 3.7 Lakh in OI, shorts were added by Retailers and HNI.
  • Total Future and Options turnover was 0.93 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.8 lakh.
  • 5400 CE saw an unwinding of 2.5 lakhs and total OI stands at 75 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 85 lakhs, 5300 CE also saw an addition of 1.1 lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs, 4900-5500 CE saw an unwinding of 2 lakhs in OI suggesting weak bears have unwounded the position as Nifty is unable to close below 5300.
  • Lying on Put side 5000 PE saw an addition of 1 lakhs, immediate support of Nifty as total OI at 1.05 core.4900-5500 PE added total of 10 lakhs in OI. 5200 PE added 6 lakhs in OI suggesting market participants are not showing nifty closing below 5200 for coming week.
  • FII bought 83 cores and DII sold 536 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.41 Live INR rate @ FII has sold 634 in stock futures namely in SBI and PSU banks.
  • Nifty Futures Trend deciding level is 5265, Trend Changer at 5266 Nifty Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty Below this levels Bears have superior hand.

Overseas Market View – F&O Cues

  • The US markets eased off their session lows but still ended in the red, with the S&P 500 snapping a six-day winning streak, amid fears of a global economic slowdown. The CBOE volatility index fell below 14 to its lowest level in almost five years.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.29% or 38.52 points at 13169.43. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.05% or 1.66 points at 3022.52. Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.13% or 1.76 points at 1404.11.
  • In key data to watch out for in the US today, the producer price index for the month of July is expected to edge up 0.2%. And retail sales may see a 0.3% growth in July.
  • In the currency space, the euro holds on to its yesterday gains ahead of the GDP data due from Germany and France.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices retreat to USD 113 levels after touching an intraday high of USD 115 levels yesterday.
  • Indian ADRs ended lower on Monday. In the IT space, Infosys was down 0.93% at USD 41.4, Wipro was down 0.61% at USD 8.1 and Patni was down 0.58% at USD 18.6505.
  • In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 1.52% at USD 34.39 and HDFC Bank was down 0.93% at USD 35.25. In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was down 1.97% at USD 8.42 and MTNL was up 1.33% at USD 1.216.
  • In the other space, Dr Reddys was down 1.57% at USD 29.41, Tata Motors was down 1.09% at USD 20.81 and Sterlite was up 0.5% at USD 8.09.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest market range of 5200-5400
  • Total Puts add 15.4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls shed 3.6 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Highest OI buildup seen in 5000 Put & 5500 Call
  • 5000 Put sheds 1.75 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Call adds 29K shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put adds 8.82 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5200 Put adds 5.25 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 4900 Put adds 4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call sheds 5.95 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Call adds 22K shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 10.4 lakh shares in OI
  • Stock Futures adds 1.7 cr shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR rose to 1.2 from 1.17
  • India VIX closed at 16.01 down by 0.37%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 13
  • FIIs net sell Rs 28 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts up by 22065
  • FIIs net sell Rs 410 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 17193
  • FIIs net sell Rs 442 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 5226

Overseas Market View – FII Data

  • The US markets ended narrowly mixed in lackluster trading, with the Dow breaking a four-day winning streak, as investors digested a better-than-expected jobless claims report against waning optimism over the ECB to tackle the region’s debt crisis. Nevertheless, the 5 day rally on the S&P 500 has helped it move nearly 10% higher from the lows of early June.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.08% or 10.45 points at 13165.19. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.25% or 7.39 points at 3018.64. Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.04% or 0.58 points at 1402.8.
  • On economic data front, weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, slipping 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 361,000. Trade deficit narrowed in June as lower oil prices curbed imports. And wholesale inventories in June posted their steepest decline since September.
  • In key data to watch out for in US today, data may show that export prices declined by 0.1% versus the 1.7% plunge in June. Meanwhile, import prices could see a 0.2% rise for the month of June.
  • In the currency space, the euro slips below 1.23 to the dollar as traders booked profits on recent gains.
  • In commodities, crude prices gain with Brent above USD 113 levels lifted by stronger-than-expected economic data in the US and a lower outlook for North Sea Brent production.
  • From the precious metals, gold prices gain on fresh stimulus hopes in China.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Thursday. In the IT space, Patni was up 0.79% at USD 18.6, Infosys was up 0.34% at USD 41.59 and Wipro was up 0.25% at USD 8.07.
  • In the Telecom space, MTNL was up 2.54% at USD 1.21 and Tata Communication was down 1.49% at USD 8.58. In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was up 0.06% at USD 35.32 and ICICI Bank was down 0.4% at USD 34.97.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was up 3.1% at USD 7.99, Dr Reddys was down 0.73% at USD 29.9 and Tata Motors was down 3.57% at USD 21.34.

F&O cues:

  • Nifty options suggest market range of 5200-5400
  • Total Puts add 6.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls add 17.6 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Highest OI buildup seen in 5000 Put & 5500 Call
  • 5000 Put sheds 94K shares in Open Interest
  • 5500 Call sheds 3.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call adds 6.3 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put adds 1.8 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5100 Put adds 1.1 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures added 3.3 lakh shares in OI.
  • Stock Futures adds 93.3 lakh shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR fell to 1.15 from 1.17.
  • India VIX closed at 16.33 down by 0.24%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 09
  • FIIs net buy Rs 27 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts up by 15419
  • FIIs net buy Rs 438 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 42998
  • FIIs net sell Rs 331 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 24381