ADP Employment Change and Commodity Trading Tips

Mcx Crude oil was trading in a bearish mode. The supply glut from OPEC region is being appended with continue supply increase in the US wherein expectations of a highly disappointing weekly Inventory report pressed the commodity lower overnight towards the $48 per barrel mark, losing another 4percentage at the WTI.As per Bloomberg survey, stocks probably rose by 700,000 barrels last week whereas product inventories are seen increasing at a hefty rate for gasoline and distillate. As we also said yesterday, product stocks for gasoline and distillate are seen rising sharply by over 4.5 and near 2 million barrels respectively depicting the scenario wherein demands in the US still stay shallow. If we add the early morning report from API on the same side, news reports suggested that the Cushing stocks rose by 482,000however, crude stockpiles slumped by 4 million barrels. While product numbers were unavailable to us, we feel fall in crude stocks could be due to lower imports or higher than normal refinery runs which indirectly may act negative on product side. This calls for a case wherein DoE stocks data may see mixed to weaker reading. We recommend selling the commodity on small pullbacks today.

Global Markets Snapshot: Asian equity markets are on a mixed to negative note as they continue to take negativity out of falling oil prices whereas speculation about Greece exiting the Euro zone too hurt overall trading sentiment. In the currency front, political developments in EU region and talks that speculation from QE continued to drag the Euro below the critical 1.19 mark whereas the Dollar Index surged ahead towards the 91.75 mark. In commodities, WTI Crude oil continued falling further breaching the $48 mark at the WTI where as Base metals finished on a broadly weaker note. Bullion however gained weight as a safe haven approach amidst fall in equities and other currencies.

Economic data: Economic data: German Retail Sales and Unemployment Change, EU region CPI Flash Estimate YoY and Unemployment Rate, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance and Crude oil Inventory numbers

No major developments over weather with expectations continue to be foe a broadly normal temperatures over the next two weeks in the US. As we said yesterday, temperature forecast in 6-10days and 8-14 days from CPC are showing cooler short-term and warmer trend towards mid of Jan supporting negative view. The inventory aspect though may create good volatility as expectations stand for around 120 BCF worth of withdrawals against just near 25BCF last week. As risk remains high; we recommend sell bias in the commodity with strict SL today.Natural Gas Feb saw no major movement yesterday where in the commodity during early Asian session on Tuesday traded with gains of near 2percentage and finally finished the day with near similar rise to $2.93 per MMBTUAt MCX, NG commodity adjusted with the movement in international markets in last two days and finished with a loss of around 3.75percentage which may lead to moderate positive opening.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Natural gas Mcx Jan below at 185 sl above 190 Tgt 180

Sell Copper Mcx Feb below 191 sl above 195 Tgt 185

Personal Consumption and Commodity Tips

Mcx Crude oil commodity market had a buying stance yesterday which worked well till late Indian session however the same reversed strongly in the last few hours of trade. Our bullish view was backed by better DoE crude supplies data which fell by 4.27 million barrels last week more than markets expectations. Also refineries operated at higher rate to 93.4percentage whereas on the supply side, imports to the US fell. Nevertheless, we saw a late session sell-off probably on two accounts, Brent continuing to be under pressure on ease in supplies and good fall in equities mainly in the US. Brent Futures were down over 1percentage this week as production in Libya climbed to 925,000 barrels a day, according to National Oil Corp in the country. While at one side international supplies hurt oil, coincidently the technical resistance at $93.60 was met with caution yesterday.

Today morning WTI is seen trading steady. For the day, we would see a very dull period as the commodity may notice a tug-off situation. The positive likely GDP number from the US should help the commodity some support to rebound in the evening however the other weakness over equity markets in Asia today might cast a negative shadow. On the whole, it would be a bit tough state to judge the trade direction wherein on a conservative note we suggest buying the commodity above $93.60 or trade only for momentary calls today.

Global Market View: Sometime on Thursdays we do not need any sound reasons for market to make drastic movements. It just happens that investors across the globe flipped around. We had no major data last day, though whatever we had stayed mostly quiet. The US market plunged wherein different segments of the markets are developing their own theories like overbought phase of the market so it’s time for a profit booking while some are concerned about ending QE programmed by the Fed and mixed performance of equities within the US markets. The bullion gold which has suffered a bruising September beat down rebounded from the losses. We may also say enough of oversold scenario so a good rebounding had to take place which was noticed last late evening on gold. Base metals again tumbled while WTI oil continuously failing to breach $93.60, what’s the deal ahead?’

This morning, both gold and silver are up by 0.22percentage and 0.93percentage at $1224 and $17.60 correspondingly. Oil is managing steady while the base metals are also trading calm. From the global FX front, most of the currencies are quiet this morning. We believe Thursday itself was huge day for so much of movement so possibly today would not be that high volatile. For today’s economic data are concerned, we have a very few- German import price index at 11:30 AM IST and the most important one would be the US 2nd Quarter GDP which is expected to grow by 4.6percentage from the prior number of 4.2percentage. The other data is the US personal consumption which is anyway likely to improve. Note, any further improvement in the US GDP number would make a huge impact in the market.

Natural Gas commodity market has a major cues, the EIA said natural gas stocks increased by 97 BCF, higher than prior figure and mostly in-line with markets expectations of a reading near 96. However, against our view of a price fall and moderately weaker inventory data the commodity extended its gains on back of cues that shutdowns at nuclear power plants that are refueling is indirectly increasing the usage of NG as an alternative fuel for power generation. On other note continued expectations of warmer temperatures in short-term too boosted price outlook. While we are shifting to a ranged view in the commodity today, we still believe 10-15 days fundamental still stay bearish in the commodity. US CPC too in its 8-14 days temperature forecast suggest mostly normal climate in larger part of the US which indirectly calls for a muted demand scenario for the commodity

Commodity Tips

Sell Copper Mcx Nov below 420 SL 423 Tgt 414

Sell Aluminum Mcx Sep below 119 SL 120 Tgt 118

Flash Manufacturing PMI and Commodity Market Tips

Mcx Gold commodity market trading slipped heavily last week where in we saw marginal recovery in prices yesterday while they trade steady as of early Asian trade today. Although the trend is still down but oversold nature of the prices is perhaps not letting prices to fall much from here. In the meanwhile, the USD index is holding tight at 84.66, neither falling much nor rising. So, we believe its good amount of short covering should have had driven prices slightly higher along with weaker equities. While, we look at the derivatives front, the trading volume and the open interests are managing higher indicating that price trend is still healthy and bearish. SPDR Holding too scaled modestly lower to fresh lows since 2008. We remain short in gold on higher levels for the day.

Global Market View: Global equities posted a negative close last day while this morning Asians are trading marginally higher and that should be possibly because of Chinese manufacturing number which came better that everyone’s expectation. HSBC/Markit Man PMI stood at 50.50, prior number was 50.20 against anticipation of a reading near 50. We believe today should be a steady day as no major heavy weight data are expected except the EU manufacturing number and US Markit manufacturing PMI followed by the Richmond Fed manufacturing index Both Gold and silver recorded high volatility yesterday with two opening lower on Monday though managed to cut losses in latter half with Gold closing 0.1percentage higher to $1218an ounce at Comex.Gold MCX in India too added 0.35percentage by closing time and Stood at Rs 26590 per 10 Gms

Mcx Silver commodity too is trading steady today most likely that yesterday’s rebound from near 4 year lows of $17.35 an ounce might be tested once again in coming sessions. Note that industrial metals too staged good recovery yesterday which too could be one of the reasons for the very strong short-covering in the commodity. For the day, we might see modest support to the commodity coming on the back of better Chinese Manufacturing PMI reading; though still note that overall trend stays down. On that front, we recommend selling the whitish metal on higher levels today. Silver December contract at Comex was a major dragger yesterday with the commodity opening lower by around 2percentage yesterday though finally marked a modest 0.35percentage closed by the end of trade. In India, Silver Dec MCX was better off as it settled lower by just 0.1percentage to Rs 39575 per Kg.

 Commodity market Tips

Sell Gold Mcx Oct below 26700 SL 26800 Tgt 26450

Sell Silver mcx Dec below 39600 SL 39950 Tgt 38900

Brief about Stock Market Investment & Stock Trading

What is Stock Market?

Stock market is the place where company equities are traded across the board. Companies are listed with their shares to be traded among buyers and sellers. Before a couple of decades, stock market was place bound of buying and selling the script but now on the edge of internet evaluation, it has become so easy of online stock trading, resulting more people are taking interest in stock trading.

What is Stock Trading?

Stock trading is a skilled task and need in-depth knowledge and experience of company equities and share market process. Trading of stocks have become easy, though it needs good analysis power, vision and speculation mind to draw a future prospects of any company based on its situation today as of now. Good understanding, precautions and analysis can put your money in right equity investment that can fetch you benefits in short or long duration.

What is Stock Market Investment?

The stock market investment is based on the individual nature and risk appetizing capacity. If you are not ready to lose your money in short duration, you need to invest your money in safe investment options like mutual funds, some large cap stocks, bank fixed deposits and all. These are the secured options, which ensure to invest your money in safe instruments with low but secured returns. But if you dare to load more risk on your shoulders, there are chances to earn good returns in short duration. Daily script trading, future & option, commodity trading, small and midcap stocks, penny stocks are the options for those, who are ready to take risk of their money. There are chances, even to lose money where risk factor is high. But when the investment is done with deep calculations, it can fetch the huge opportunity to earn drastic money.

Thus, in share market it is known that more risk can fetch more money; no risk can give you less money. Here risk must be considered as a calculated risk or the growth investment portfolio offered by equity advisory services, where the fund managers have speculated the stock movements based on their skill and years of experience to fix the return by investing in equity market.

Commodity Trading Tips & Major Indices – 24 Dec’2012

GOLD:

Gold trading projected high range for the day is 30918-30960

Gold stock market trading projected low range for the day is 30909-30867

Gold ended higher on short covering but showed weekly decline as uncertainties over the U.S. budget weighed on bullion.

The dollar soared as it appeared as a better safe-haven to investors than gold after the Republicans’ action.

SPDR gold trust holdings gained by 0.30 toness to 1351 tonnes.

Gold is trading below 50DMA, which is at 31625.

Major Resistance on upside at 31017-30979-30941

Trend Deciding Level at 30896

Major Support on downside at 30858-30813-30775

SILVER:

Silver trading projected high range for the day is 58180-58379

Silver trading projected low range for the day is 58020-57820

Silver rallied on speculation that plans announced by Japan to stimulate economic growth will boost Silver ended higher amid demand from investors looking for safety as U.S. budget talks hit a fresh snag in Congress.

Investors flocked to bullion to digest a budgetary impasse threatening to throw the U.S. economy into a recession next year.

Holdings at ishares silver trust rose by 150.48 tonnes to 10045.85 tonnes.

Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 62281.

Major Resistance on upside at 58306-58452-58597

Trend Deciding Level at 58054

Major Support on downside at 57098-57656-57510

CRUDE:

Crude trading projected high range for the day is 4832-4942

Crude trading projected low range for the day is 4939-4929

Crude oil fell after Republican lawmakers in US withheld support for a proposal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff. A drop in consumer sentiment in December, as the budget talks dragged on, added pressure on oil prices.

World oil demand growth looks set to rise in 2013 due to a recovery in the U.S. economy.

Major Resistance on upside at 4936-4948-4960

Trend Deciding Level at 4928

Major Support on downside at 4916-4908-4896

COPPER:

Copper trading projected high range for the day is 438.28-438.85

Copper trading projected low range for the day is 438.75-438.17

Copper settled flat down recovering from steep falls although investors remained nervous.

Investors have been closely watching talks in recent weeks between the White House and Republican lawmakers to avert the “fiscal cliff”

Trading volumes were thin, however, as markets wound down for the year-end holiday season

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 312400mt that is up by 475mt.

Major Resistance on upside at 438.49-439.22-439.95

Trend Deciding Level at 438.07

Major Support on downside at 437.34-436.92-436.19

MENTHA OIL:

Mentha Oil trading projected high range for the day is 1439-1456

Mentha Oil trading projected low range for the day is 1431-1414

Menthaoil spot is at 1630 Spot market is up by Rs.25.

Mentha oil ended higher on the back of short covering and rising demand in the spot market.

Improved demand from pharmaceutical industries amidst reports of export queries kept sentiments up.

At Barabanki, the total stock was 11, 55, 707 kg of which, physical stock accounted for 10, 58, 865 kg

Major Resistance on upside at 1449-1464-1478

Trend Deciding Level at 1429

Major Support on downside at 1415-1395-1380

Natural Gas:

Mentha Oil trading projected high range for the day is 194.75-195.2

Mentha Oil trading projected low range for the day is 194.8-194.35

Major Resistance on upside at 194.96-195.43-195.9

Trend Deciding Level at 194.53

Major Support on downside at 194.06-193.63-193.16

Today Commodity Advises:

  • BUY COPPER MCX  FEB ABOVE 438.50 SL 436.80 TGT 440.50-442
  • SELL NATURAL GAS MCX DEC BELOW 190 SL 193.8 TGT 188.40-185.20

Today Major Global Events:

Date & Time

Region

Event

Period

Survey

Prior

26/12/2012 & 19:30

US

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Ind

Oct

145.3

146.2

26/12/2012 & 20:30

US

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Dec

7

9

Nifty Market outlook & FII Derivative Data – 19 October’2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 18792 up 182 points from its Previous Close or +0.97%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5719 up 59 Points from its Previous Close or +1.03%.

  • On Closes of the Intraday Chart Indicates Nifty Crosses weekly Average with Heavy volumes and large move. So that was break now 5680-5920 levels. Will act as support and Nifty direction towards 5970 Positional Target Nifty Eod Chart, Rsi & Cci both bullish while Macd still with bearish crossover.
  • Sensex Projected High Range at 18799-18915 and Projected Low Range at 18698-18584 Trend Deciding Point at 18725.
  • Nifty Spot Projected High Rang at 5720-5850 and Projected Low Range at 5593-5463 Trend Deciding Point at 5634.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 2056 Contracts of Index Future, worth 35.7 cores with net OI increasing by 23632 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was up by 67 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 23632, so FII again took longs in longs of Nifty Future and Bank Nifty and covered shorts.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5717 after making a high of 5723 and low of 5651 .Nifty spot was unable to break 5725 and 5638 so still trading within the range of 5625-5725. It has been 8 days of consolidation in this range and has been a very frustrating range to traders. Best is to stay on sidelines till this range breakout/breakdown gets resolved.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5725 and 5741 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5686 and 5671 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5725 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.42 cores with addition of 5 Lakh in OI, long addition in Nifty Future.
  • F&O turnover was at 1.77 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.68lakh, Cash market volumes were higher as compared to tomorrow so this can be the case of distribution as nifty shooted up on Rumor of rate cut so hold longs with strict sl PCR at 0.99 and VIX at 14.76,VIX has collapsed which shows confidence of Bulls to take market higher.
  • 5800 CALL is having highest Open Interest of 95 lakh with unwinding of 22 lakhs in OI as Premium jumped from Rs 9 To Rs 19 ,5700 CALL unwounded 15 lakhs in OI after Bulls were able to close nifty above 5700 .5400-6000 CALL unwounded 38 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PUT is having highest Open Interest of 87 lakhs with addition of 8.6 lakhs in OI so 5600 is still the strong base for Nifty. 5500 PUT saw a huge liquidation of 17 lakhs after yesterday addition of 20 lakhs suggesting put buyers were caught on wrong side as premium is down from Rs 22 to Rs 9 .5400-6000 PUT added 9.5 lakhs in Open Interest, Bears again were not able to push nifty beyond 5618 and Bulls capitalized on the opportunity. But still we are trading in range of 5635-5725
  • FII sold 68 cores and DII sold 184 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 53.41.FII bought 45 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5705 (For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5723 Nifty Future (For Positional Traders).
  • 5 DMA at 5678
  • 20 DMA at 5686
  • 50 DMA at 5494
  • 200 DMA at 5242
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 61 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 560 Indicates Nifty in Bullish Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5733 and above the level marks the track point at 5755 later zipper levels at 5799 marks.

Nifty Support at It has the First support close to the level 5688 and below the level marks the track point at 5666 later zipper levels at 5644 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 19 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5755 sl 5733 Tgt 5777-5800 {Or} Sell Below 5711 sl 5733 Tgt 5688-5666

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 19 Oct’2012:

Buy Above 11666 sl 11622 Tgt 11711-11755 {Or} Sell Below 11577 sl 11622 Tgt 11533-11488

Nifty Daily Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 18 October’2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 18611 up 33 points from its Previous Close or +0.18%. The Nse Index Shuts at 55661 up 13 Points from its Previous Close or +0.22%.

  • Intraday Charts and Nifty Intraday Trend and momentum both indicate Bearish Trend. Closing of the Day Nifty Spot is still below weekly average at 5680 on downside Nifty average month support at 5595 and three months support at 5430. Eod Chart indicators still in sell signals.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 7680 Contracts of Index Future, worth 197 cores with net OI increasing by just 438 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was up by 18 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 438, so FII again took some longs in longs of Nifty Future and Bank Nifty. Now if one observe the EOD close of Nifty from 8 Oct it has been one day negative and other day positive eg. 8 Oct down by 75 9 Oct up by 22. So as per the trend tomorrow should be a down day again.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5660 after making a high of 5684 and low of 5634. Sideways consolidation with the repeated testing of the support continues in Nifty and there is no display of any strength during pullback rallies. Such pattern could eventually end up with the Nifty breaking below the supports over next few days.
  • Nifty daily chart is forming a Head and Shoulder pattern with Neckline placed at 5635 and if it gets broken with volumes in coming week lower levels are quiet possible.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5684 and 5705 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5618 and 5600 .Trend is Sell on Rise  till 5725 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.37 cores with unwinding of 2.88 Lakh in OI, shorts getting unwounded. Here do not we were cautious in Nifty longs from 5 October the day it hit 2.64 cores saying it shows overconfidence of Bulls
  • F&O turnover was at 1.33 lakh Cores with total contract traded at month low of 1.68lakh, PCR at 0.87 and VIX  at 15.17.
  • 5800 Call is having highest Open Interest of 1.17 Core with fresh addition of 16.8 lakhs in OI and Premium at Rs 9 (down from 42 4 days ago), 5700 Call unwounded 4.2 lakhs in OI after brief rally in fag end of session but still 5700 will be strong resistance for Nifty .5400-6000 Call added 3.9 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5500 Put is having highest Open Interest of 85 lakhs with addition of 20 lakhs in OI so such huge addition in 5500 Put suggests Bears are sharpening there claws and we can see a break of 5600 in next 2 days if 5618 gets broken, 5600 PE added 1.6 lakhs and OI at 79 lakhs .5400-6000 PUT added 22 lakhs in Open Interest. So Bears are having upper hand as of now as not allowing nifty to close above 5700
  • FII bought 35 cores and DII sold 285 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 52.87. FII bought 36 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5637(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5723 Nifty (For Positional Traders).
  • 5 DMA at 5676
  • 20 DMA at 5680
  • 50 DMA at 5484
  • 200 DMA at 5237
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 55 Indicates Nifty Slipping in Bearish Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5688 and above the level marks the track point at 57511 later zipper levels at 5733 marks.

Nifty Support at It has the First support close to the level 5644 and below the level marks the track point at 5622 later zipper levels at 5600 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 18 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5688 sl 5666 Tgt 5711-5733 {Or} Sell Below 5644 sl 5666 Tgt 5622-5600

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 18 Oct’2012:

Buy Above 11425 sl 11377 Tgt 11466-11511 {Or} Sell Below 11333 sl 11377 Tgt 11288-11244

Nifty Day Chart & FII Activity – Nifty Future, Nifty Spot, F&O Tips for 11 October 2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 18632 down 163 points from its Previous Close or -0.86%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5653 down 53 Points from its Previous Close or -0.92%.

  • Scheduled end of the day chart Nifty closes below weekly average and heading towards monthly average of 5580. On daily chart rsi-macd-cci all given sell signals. Nifty below 5580 next term short support at 5415.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 34232 Contracts of Index Future, worth 1012.37 cores with net OI decreasing by 20284 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was down by 51 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 20284,so FII have booked profits in shorts  in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Fresh longs have not been created as nifty is moving in sideways zone after big rally from 5200-5800.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5653 after making a low of 5648 and filling the gap from 5650-5683, The correction which is ongoing is 4 days old and looking at past 2 correction of 316 points (5349-5033) which took 13 days and 233 points (5449-5216) which took 10 days, current ongoing correction has done 167 points in 4 days so if 5630 does not hold on closing basis we can expect correction to continue with brief pullback rallies.
  • Gap filling of 5650-5683 has started and gap of 5650 did not got filled today, but should be filled in this week as per gap theory. This is what we discussed yesterday and Nifty filled the gap today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5685 and 5700 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5620 and 5600 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5684 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.56 cores with unwinding of 6.9 Lakh in OI, shorts did profit booking in Nifty future.
  • F&O turnover was at 1.17 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.22 lakh, PCR at 0.94 and VIX at 16.83, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a up move till 18.5-19 is on cards. Volumes have been on decline from past 3 days which is a silver lining for bulls as traders are not unwinding positions and dips can be used to make a base for sustainable rally.
  • Nifty 5800 CALL is having highest Open Interest of 76 lakhs with fresh addition of 3.6 lakhs in OI and Premium at 25.5900 Call Open Interest at 77 with net addition of 8 lakhs in OI so speculative or smart money is buying 5900 Call at premium of rs 10, and 5700 Call also added huge 13 lakh in OI so bears are trying to make ceiling of market at 5700 for short term .5400-6100 Call added huge 32 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • Nifty 5500 PUT is having highest Open Interest of 65 lakhs with addition of  5.17 lakhs in OI and premium at 18,5700 Put showed an unwinding of 4 lakhs and 5600 PE saw a marginal unwinding of 0.35 lajhs.5400-6100 Put  added 5 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 407.6 cores and DII sold 396 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 53.06. FII sold 424 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5680 (For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5742.
  • 5 DMA at 5729
  • 20 DMA at 5633
  • 50 DMA at 5436
  • 200 DMA at 5214
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 39 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 57 Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5666 and above the level marks the track point at 5688 later zipper levels at 5711 marks.

Nifty Support at It has the First support close to the level 5644 and below the level marks the track point at 5622 later zipper levels at 5600 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 11 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5688 sl 5666 Tgt 5711-5733 {Or} Sell Below 5666 sl 5688 Tgt 5644-5622

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 11 Oct’2012:

Buy Above 11380 sl 11333 Tgt 11422-11466 {Or} Sell Below 11330 sl 11380 Tgt 11288-11244

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 10 October’2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 18794 up 85 points from its Previous Close or +0.45%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5705 up 29 Points from its Previous Close or +0.50%.

  • Daily Chart Indicates Nifty closed 5690 which suggest reversal signal. On daily chart Rsi & Cci given reversal buy signal while macd is at down side break out. Trend and momentum is bullish on end of day chart for Nifty.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 2375 Contracts of Index Future, worth -6.88 cores with net OI increasing by 8405 contracts. As FII were buyers but net amount came as negative which means FII sold in Opening and bought at the far end of session. Consider the following example Sell 9 unit at Rs 7 and Buy 10 Unit at 6 so net units comes as 1 and value comes to Rs-4.
  • Nifty Future was up by 22 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 8405, so FII have booked profits in shorts in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Fresh longs have not been created as nifty is moving in sideways zone after big rally from 5200-5800.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5705 after making a high of 5729 and unable to move above the previous swing low of 5740 which shows it was a fake breakout above 5740. Gap filling of 5650-5683 has started and gap of 5650 did not got filled today, but should be filled in this week as per gap theory.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5715 and 5730 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5678 and 5650 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5752 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.62 cores with unwinding of 0.30 Lakh in OI, Shorts did profit booking in Nifty future.
  • F&O turnover was at 1.12 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.17 lakh, PCR at 1.04 and VIX at 16.80, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a up move till 18.5-19 is on cards.
  • 5800 CALL  is having highest Open Interest of 73 lakhs with fresh addition of 3.1 lakhs in OI and Premium at 41.6000 CE Open Interest at 70 is second highest  lakhs,  and  6100 calls got unwounded today as premium moved from 8 to rs 2 .5400-6100 CE  added 5.9 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5600 PUT is having highest Open Interest of 64 lakhs with addition of 3.2 lakhs in OI and premium at 31.5, Bulls were just able to defend 5700 with addition of 2.9 lakhs. 5400-6100 PE added 8.3 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 613.98 cores and DII sold 430.60 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 52.54.FII sold 87 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5698(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5748 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). We have done 2 successful trades in past 2 days with trend changer level each 50 points..
  • 5 DMA at 5729
  • 20 DMA at 5619
  • 50 DMA at 5424
  • 200 DMA at 5209
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 52 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 63 Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5711 and above the level marks the track point at 5733 later zipper levels at 5755 marks.

Nifty Support at It has the First support close to the level 5688 and below the level marks the track point at 5666 later zipper levels at 5622 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 10 Oct’2012:

Buy Nifty Future above 5733 sl 5711 Tgt 5755-5777 {Or} Sell Below 5711 sl 5733 Tgt 5688-5666

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 10 Oct’2012:

Buy Above 11535 sl 11488 Tgt 1575-11625 {Or} Sell Below 11444 sl 11488 Tgt 11355-11266

Nifty Stock Index & FII Derivative Market Data – 03 October’2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 18,824 up 62 points from its Previous Close or +0.33%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5719 up +16 Points from its Previous Close or +0.27%.

  • Top Nse Gainers were: JPASSOSIAT, AMBUJACEM, RELINFRA and INFY.
  • Top Nse Losers Were: DLF, BANKBARODA, BAJAJ-AUTO and PNB.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 3255 Contracts of Index Future, worth 94 cores with net OI increasing by 6544 contracts. SGX Nifty is trading at 5791 so another gap up on cards.
  • Nifty Future was up by 25 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 6544,so  FII have initiated longs  in  Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5719 after making a high of 5722 and unable to break 5740, Bulls are in control of market as they have closed nifty above 5700 on closing basis. Nifty has formed a double bottom at 5640 and it’s a bullish pattern, and we have seen a follow up action in past two trading session.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5740 and 5775 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5700 and 5683 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5636 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.42 cores with a addition of 6 Lakh in OI, longs got added in Nifty future. Rollovers range for NF comes at 5732-5670 and we have closed above the rollover range.
  • Overall F&O turnover was at 0.67 lakh Cores with total contract traded at new 52 week low of 1.2 lakh. PCR at 0.92 and VIX  at 16.34
  • Nifty 6000 CE  is having highest Open Interest of 52 lakhs with fresh addition of 6.4 lakhs in OI.5800 CE Open Interest at 49 is second highest  lakhs, with fresh addition of 7.2 lakhs. Nifty 5300-6000 CE added just 16.4 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • Nifty 5300 PE is having highest Open Interest of 50 lakhs with fresh addition of 0.83 lakhs in OI, Bulls want to make  5300 as base for October Series.5600 PE added 6.6 lakhs in OI so 5600 is the strong base emerging as per OI table. We need to watch closely the Open Interest in 5700 PE tomorrow opening  as of now OI is at 40 lakhs and if we can see an addition of 10-15 lakhs tomorrow we must be heading upwards , 5300-6000 PE added 21 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 207.51 cores and DII sold 407.20 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 53.7 FII sold 299 crores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5741(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5725 Nifty Future (For Positional Traders)
  • 5 DMA at 5682
  • 20 DMA at 5503
  • 50 DMA at 5367
  • 200 DMA at 5182
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 78 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 73. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5733 and above the level marks the track point at 5755 later zipper levels at 5799 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5688 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5666 later dipping levels near 5644 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 03 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5777 sl 5755 Tgt 5799-5822 {Or} Sell Below 5733 sl 5755 Tgt 5711-5688

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 03 Oct’2012:

Buy above 11555 sl 11511 Tgt 11600-11644 {Or} Sell below 11466 sl 11511 Tgt 11422-11377.