
BULLION:
Gold Projected High Range at 28364-28787
Gold Projected Low Range at 28566-28143
Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 28542-29032-29521
Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 27697-27342-26852
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 28187
Silver Projected High Range at 41902-42563
Silver Projected Low Range at 42012-41351
Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 42214-42911-43608
Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 40893-40269-39572
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 41590
BASE METALS:
In Base metals to witness a flat to negative opening at the MCX, supported by a rising rupee (appreciated 0.35% early morning). Basically, the demand for copper and nickel has increased in the last two sessions while aluminum, lead and zinc have witnessed accumulation at the exchange warehouses, which should limit the gains in futures prices today. The PVO analysis also indicates that gains in prices have been supported by rising volumes and open interest except for copper (open interest has declined Indicating that traders are not confident of holding positions). The PVO should also continue to support slight gains in base metals in today’s session as the day progresses. In general, we anticipate the gains in base metals should remain intact in today’s session, backed by improving manufacturing numbers and near-term weakness in the dollar. The ECB and BOE’s rate decision should also enhance the volatility in base metals prices in the evening and caution should be maintained.
Copper Projected High Range at 422-427
Copper Projected Low Range at 418-413
Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 425-428-432
Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 416-409-406
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 418.60
Nickel Projected High Range at 849-859
Nickel Projected Low Range at 841-832
Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 855-862-869
Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 836-824-817
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 843
CRUDE:
Crude oil is anticipated to extend its gains from yesterday’s session though the degree and the overall scope of the up move may be on a lighter note locally due to marginal appreciation in the Rupee against the US Dollar. Support to our view comes from the fact that the Fed in its post policy presentation said the US economy was expanding at a “modest” pace, a change from the “moderate” pace seen in June. It also said the bank remains worried regarding the Inflation number which stands fairly below the targeted level and thus creates a bullish case that it would continue with its ultra low interest rate scenario and the MBS program longer than the previously anticipated time-frame, eventually keeping the US Dollar lower and helping the commodity prices to gain.
Crude Projected High Range at 6413-6475
Crude Projected Low Range at 6364-6302
Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6452-6497-6542
Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6329-6251-6206
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6374
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 212-214
Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 213-211
Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 213-215-217
Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 210-208-206
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 211
Mentha Oil:
Yesterday, spot prices at the Barabanki mandi were Rs 27/kg lower, unlike spot prices at the Chandausi and Sambhal mandis were marginally high er by Rs 3/kg compared to the previous day’s prices
Arrivals declined due to the continuous rainfall in the major mentha growing regions. Across the major mandis of Uttar Pradesh, arrivals were hovering around 1200-1400 drums (1 drum = 180 kg)
Lower arrivals at the spot front, coupled with minor export cues pushed spot prices higher to some extent Harvesting in all the major mentha growing regions ha been completed. However, according to some trade sources 5%-7% of crop remains to be harvested (in some small mentha growing belts)
Trade sources suggest that mentha oil production for this year’s crop has been increased by one third from last year’s production. It stands around 55000 MT
Adequate supply at the spot front along with weak export demand is cushioning mentha oil prices in the short term. Therefore looking at the weak export cues and huge production, mentha oil prices are expected to remain in a downtrend in today’s session.
Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 902-911
Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 907-898
Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 905-916-927
Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 887-880-870
Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 898
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
Sell Crude Oil Mcx Aug below 6389 sl 6326 Tgt 6345
Buy Natural Gas Mcx Aug above 210.80 sl 209.90 Tgt 212.70
Buy Mentha Oil Mcx Aug above 898 sl 893 Tgt 904
ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH
DATE |
TIME |
Region |
Event |
Period |
Survey |
Prior |
01-08-2013 |
05:20 |
JN |
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds |
Jul-26 |
— |
¥549.3B |
01-08-2013 |
05:20 |
JN |
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks |
Jul-26 |
— |
-¥56.7B |
01-08-2013 |
05:20 |
JN |
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds |
Jul-26 |
— |
¥790.3B |
01-08-2013 |
05:20 |
JN |
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks |
Jul-26 |
— |
¥349.8B |
01-08-2013 |
06:30 |
CH |
Manufacturing PMI |
Jul |
49.8 |
50.1 |
01-08-2013 |
07:15 |
CH |
HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI |
Jul |
47.7 |
48.2 |
01-08-2013 |
10:30 |
JN |
Vehicle Sales YoY |
Jul |
— |
-15.80% |
01-08-2013 |
10:30 |
IN |
HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI |
Jul |
— |
50.3 |
01-08-2013 |
13:25 |
GE |
PMI Manufacturing |
Jul F |
50.3 |
50.3 |
01-08-2013 |
13:30 |
EC |
PMI Manufacturing |
Jul F |
50.1 |
50.1 |
01-08-2013 |
14:00 |
UK |
PMI Manufacturing |
Jul |
52.8 |
52.5 |
01-08-2013 |
16:30 |
UK |
Bank of England Bank Rate |
Aug-01 |
0.50% |
0.50% |
01-08-2013 |
16:30 |
UK |
BOE Asset Purchase Target |
Aug |
375B |
375B |
01-08-2013 |
17:15 |
EC |
ECB Announces Interest Rates |
Aug-01 |
0.50% |
0.50% |
01-08-2013 |
17:15 |
EC |
ECB Deposit Facility Rate |
Aug-01 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
01-08-2013 |
18:00 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims |
Jul-27 |
344K |
343K |
01-08-2013 |
18:00 |
US |
Continuing Claims |
Jul-20 |
3000K |
2997K |
01-08-2013 |
19:30 |
US |
Construction Spending MoM |
Jun |
0.40% |
0.50% |
01-08-2013 |
19:30 |
US |
ISM Manufacturing |
Jul |
52 |
50.9 |
01-08-2013 |
19:30 |
US |
ISM Prices Paid |
Jul |
54 |
52.5 |
01-08-2013 |
—- |
JN |
Official Reserve Assets |
Jul |
— |
$1238.7B |
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