Shell Crude Oil Pumps it High


Gold Projected High Range at 28364-28787

Gold Projected Low Range at 28566-28143

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 28542-29032-29521

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 27697-27342-26852

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 28187

Silver Projected High Range at 41902-42563

Silver Projected Low Range at 42012-41351

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 42214-42911-43608

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 40893-40269-39572

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 41590


In Base metals to witness a flat to negative opening at the MCX, supported by a rising rupee (appreciated 0.35% early morning). Basically, the demand for copper and nickel has increased in the last two sessions while aluminum, lead and zinc have witnessed accumulation at the exchange warehouses, which should limit the gains in futures prices today. The PVO analysis also indicates that gains in prices have been supported by rising volumes and open interest except for copper (open interest has declined Indicating that traders are not confident of holding positions). The PVO should also continue to support slight gains in base metals in today’s session as the day progresses. In general, we anticipate the gains in base metals should remain intact in today’s session, backed by improving manufacturing numbers and near-term weakness in the dollar. The ECB and BOE’s rate decision should also enhance the volatility in base metals prices in the evening and caution should be maintained.

Copper Projected High Range at 422-427

Copper Projected Low Range at 418-413

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 425-428-432

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 416-409-406

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 418.60

Nickel Projected High Range at 849-859

Nickel Projected Low Range at 841-832

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 855-862-869

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 836-824-817

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 843


Crude oil is anticipated to extend its gains from yesterday’s session though the degree and the overall scope of the up move may be on a lighter note locally due to marginal appreciation in the Rupee against the US Dollar. Support to our view comes from the fact that the Fed in its post policy presentation said the US economy was expanding at a “modest” pace, a change from the “moderate” pace seen in June. It also said the bank remains worried regarding the Inflation number which stands fairly below the targeted level and thus creates a bullish case that it would continue with its ultra low interest rate scenario and the MBS program longer than the previously anticipated time-frame, eventually keeping the US Dollar lower and helping the commodity prices to gain.

Crude Projected High Range at 6413-6475

Crude Projected Low Range at 6364-6302

Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6452-6497-6542

Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6329-6251-6206

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6374

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 212-214

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 213-211

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 213-215-217

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 210-208-206

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 211

Mentha Oil:

Yesterday, spot prices at the Barabanki mandi were Rs 27/kg lower, unlike spot prices at the Chandausi and Sambhal mandis were marginally high er by Rs 3/kg compared to the previous day’s prices

Arrivals declined due to the continuous rainfall in the major mentha growing regions. Across the major mandis of Uttar Pradesh, arrivals were hovering around 1200-1400 drums (1 drum = 180 kg)

Lower arrivals at the spot front, coupled with minor export cues pushed spot prices higher to some extent Harvesting in all the major mentha growing regions ha been completed. However, according to some trade sources 5%-7% of crop remains to be harvested (in some small mentha growing belts)

Trade sources suggest that mentha oil production for this year’s crop has been increased by one third from last year’s production. It stands around 55000 MT

Adequate supply at the spot front along with weak export demand is cushioning mentha oil prices in the short term. Therefore looking at the weak export cues and huge production, mentha oil prices are expected to remain in a downtrend in today’s session.

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 902-911

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 907-898

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 905-916-927

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 887-880-870

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 898


Sell Crude Oil Mcx Aug below 6389 sl 6326 Tgt 6345

Buy Natural Gas Mcx Aug above 210.80 sl 209.90 Tgt 212.70

Buy Mentha Oil Mcx Aug above 898 sl 893 Tgt 904


DATE TIME Region Event Period Survey Prior
01-08-2013 05:20 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Jul-26 ¥549.3B
01-08-2013 05:20 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Jul-26 -¥56.7B
01-08-2013 05:20 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Jul-26 ¥790.3B
01-08-2013 05:20 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Jul-26 ¥349.8B
01-08-2013 06:30 CH Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.8 50.1
01-08-2013 07:15 CH HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Jul 47.7 48.2
01-08-2013 10:30 JN Vehicle Sales YoY Jul -15.80%
01-08-2013 10:30 IN HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Jul 50.3
01-08-2013 13:25 GE PMI Manufacturing Jul F 50.3 50.3
01-08-2013 13:30 EC PMI Manufacturing Jul F 50.1 50.1
01-08-2013 14:00 UK PMI Manufacturing Jul 52.8 52.5
01-08-2013 16:30 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Aug-01 0.50% 0.50%
01-08-2013 16:30 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Aug 375B 375B
01-08-2013 17:15 EC ECB Announces Interest Rates Aug-01 0.50% 0.50%
01-08-2013 17:15 EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate Aug-01 0.00% 0.00%
01-08-2013 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul-27 344K 343K
01-08-2013 18:00 US Continuing Claims Jul-20 3000K 2997K
01-08-2013 19:30 US Construction Spending MoM Jun 0.40% 0.50%
01-08-2013 19:30 US ISM Manufacturing Jul 52 50.9
01-08-2013 19:30 US ISM Prices Paid Jul 54 52.5
01-08-2013 —- JN Official Reserve Assets Jul $1238.7B

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