BULLION:
Gold prices in the international market are trading at $1281, zoom by 2.5%. Fed chairman Bernanke’s announcement on the continuation of monetary easing supported gold prices in the morning session. Currently, the dollar index is trading 1.5% lower against the majors, extending the gains in gold prices. For that reason, it is expected that gold prices might witness an upside during the day on the back of loose monetary policy. At the MCX India, gold might open higher due to higher gold prices at the international market. However, the appreciation in the rupee might limit the gains in gold prices. From the economic data point of view, the German wholesale price index may remain low on the back of slowing consumption. On the other hand, the euro might remain higher due to the European Commission’s announcement of revised rules for the banking crisis. Throughout the US hours, jobless claims are expected to remain positive and the market will also be watching the monthly budget statement, which is expected to remain positive and should limit the weakness in the dollar while weighing down on gold prices. As a result, gold prices might remain volatile in the evening due to the monthly budget statement and the Fed’s decision on loose monetary policy.
Gold Projected High Range at 26198-26336
Gold Projected Low Range at 26167-26029
Gold Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 26272-26399-26526
Gold Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 25997-25849-25722
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 26124
Silver Projected High Range at 40364-40649
Silver Projected Low Range at 40351-40666
Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 40509-40790-41070
Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 39939-39650-39369
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 40220
BASE METALS:
Base metals should witness a gap-up opening at the MCX unlike yesterday. Even though the rupee has appreciated by 0.63% against the dollar this morning, we anticipate base metals to remain higher. The loose monetary stance by the Fed yesterday was mostly in-line with the last weeks ECB President Mr. Draghi’s views and should provide comfort to investor sentiments and fuel optimism in base metals. Producers and downstream users might also slowly resume buying on hopes of cheap credit and support gains. Chinese copper imports have remained higher (9.7% in June YoY) while Japanese aluminum stocks have dropped by 8.3% in June. We expect since the major economies have signaled a loose monetary policy, the up-and-coming markets should follow suit and lend support to base metals prices.
Copper Projected High Range at 413-416
Copper Projected Low Range at 409-406
Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 415-418-420
Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 408-403-400
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 410
Nickel Projected High Range at 819-830
Nickel Projected Low Range at 813-802
Nickel Mcx Jul Resistance on Upside at 826-835-844
Nickel Mcx Jul Support on Low side at 804-790-781
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 812
CRUDE:
The dollar index retreated against a basket of major currencies after the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said; highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed in the US economy. This brings the dollar index down sharply n the last trading session which is currently trading lower supporting positive trade in commodities. The impact of this is noticed on crude oil prices. Until yesterday, we were paying close attention to Crude oil’s fundamentals but now; the market dynamics are also supporting the trend. For that reason, we continue to hold a bullish move toward for the day. Data releases from Germany may have a slight negative effect on the euro, which is currently trading up at $1.3133. Therefore, oil might retreat slightly during the European session. There a few data releases coming from the US, which believe will be supportive for the dollar. The current loss noticed in the dollar index might improve during the US session. Therefore, commodities might retract a little. In the meanwhile, the rupee has appreciated and is currently trading at 59.52, which should cause a lower opening in oil prices. Consequently, we might see limited gains at the MCX while NYMEX oil prices may see marginal gains.
Crude Projected High Range at 6405-6504
Crude Projected Low Range at 6311-6212
Crude Mcx Jul Resistance on Upside at 6470-6537-6604
Crude Mcx Jul Support on Low side at 6273-6143-6076
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6340
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 225-231
Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 228-223
Natural Gas Mcx Jul Resistance on Upside at 228-234-240
Natural Gas Mcx Jul Support on Low side at 217-213-207
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 223
Mentha Oil:
Mentha Oil Spot prices at the Barabanki mandi were Rs 19 per kg higher evaluate to the previous day while prices at the Chandausi and Sambhal mandis were Rs 17 per kg higher. At the Barabanki mandi, arrivals were around 350-400 drums evaluate to the earlier 400-450 drums while arrivals at the Chandausi and Sambhal mandis were 250-300 drums lower than preceding arrivals. Scanty rains resulted in lower arrivals at the major mandis because the ongoing harvesting was delayed. Lower supply at the spot front, coupled with the increase in demand from the industrial segments favored futures prices too. According to the IMD forecast, normal to excess rain could occur in Uttar Pradesh and could result in lower arrivals. This might result in lack of buyers at spot front. This scenario might pressurize futures prices too.
Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 946-961
Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 946-931
Mentha Oil Mcx Jul Resistance on Upside at 954-968-982
Mentha Oil Mcx Jul Support on Low side at 925-910-896
Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 939
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TODAY ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Event | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 11/7/2013 | 5:20 | JN | Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | 5-Jul | — | -¥ 965.9B |
| 11/7/2013 | 5:20 | JN | Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | 5-Jul | — | -¥ 38.9B |
| 11/7/2013 | 5:20 | JN | Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 5-Jul | — | ¥ 261.8B |
| 11/7/2013 | 5:20 | JN | Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | 5-Jul | — | ¥ 479.7B |
| 11/7/2013 | 5:20 | JN | Machine Orders (MoM) | May | 1.70% | -8.80% |
| 11/7/2013 | 11:30 | GE | Wholesale Price Index (MoM) | Jun | — | -0.40% |
| 11/7/2013 | 13:30 | EC | ECB Publishes Monthly Report | — | —- | — |
| 11/7/2013 | 18:00 | US | Import Price Index (MoM) | Jun | 0.00% | -0.60% |
| 11/7/2013 | 18:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 6-Jul | 339K | 343K |
| 11/7/2013 | 18:00 | US | Continuing Claims | 29-Jun | 2958K | 2933K |
| 11/7/2013 | 23:30 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | Jun | $40.0B | — |
| 11/7/2013 | — | JN | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy | — | —- | — |
| 11/7/2013 | — | JN | BOJ Target Rate | 11-Jul | — | — |
| 11/7/2013 | — | JN | BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target | 11-Jul | — | ¥ 270T |