Crude Oil Will Effect To Halifex House Price

Crude Oil prices traded mostly steady due to a very irregular market yesterday, settling the day at $94.62 while making an intraday low of $94.06 and a high of $95.11. We would not say oil traded higher but, it had recovered marginally from its intraday low. The positive economic data released from the euro-zone and Germany in the form of the PMI manufacturing supported a slight recovery in the euro from Its biggest weekly low, which eventually helped oil prices recover slightly in yesterday’s trading session. Also, oil prices during the US session were supported by the higher factory orders data which stood at 1.7%. Meanwhile, the US equities posted a positive close, which may have supported the recovery in oil prices. On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for the December delivery were up 0.27% at $106.20, up $11.53 from WTI oil prices. At the local market in India, Crude oil traded almost steady and ended the session at Rs 5895 per barrel. Locally, only the second session was carried out in the markets due to Diwali and hence, the participation rate was low. In fact, all the commodity sectors were mostly calm in yesterday’s trading session globally.

This morning, during the Asian hours, WTI oil December futures prices are trading at $94.62, unchanged from the previous close. The Asian markets are currently trading down, which may weigh on oil prices. Although economic data released from Japan and China is mixed, they have no major impact on oil. Oil prices are expected to remain lower ahead of tomorrow’s petroleum inventory data expected from the department of energy (DOE), which shows a rise in stocks. As of now, the crude stocks are expected to rise for the seventh consecutive week. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks are declining, though they are having no major impact on oil. Post the autumn holiday, refiners may return to refining oil ahead of winter demand. However, no signs of oil refining have surface yet and therefore, the refinery utilization rate continues to be lower. We believe that oil prices will remain lower for the day. We also watch out for the API data expected from the US late this evening and, we believe it may also lead to a rise in stock levels. The Economic Data expected today from UK and the euro-zone might remain on mixed note, without much impact on crude oil prices, however we have the ISM non-manufacturing index and the Halifex House prices from the US for the month of October, which we are anticipated to remain lower and might pull Crude oil prices lower for the day.

Global Market Study

Despite the US posting a positive close yesterday due to better than expected economic data, the Asian markets this morning are trading on a negative note. Among the indices, the Chinese equities have declined the most as investors are selling stocks due to concerns that government reforms introduced at the Communist Party meeting that starts this Saturday will be disappointing. Meanwhile, Chinese banks’ borrowing costs are climbing at their fastest pace in two years as competition for deposits hurts earnings at a time of a rise in bad loans. We believe that the weakness may continue to prevail during the Asian hours. However, as the day progresses, the Europeans might take negative cues during the opening of the market but, we believe that the losses could be curtailed later on. There are a few economic data expected from the UK and the euro-zone, which are likely to improve from their previous levels and may help the euro revive. Likewise, the data expected from the US such as the ISM non-manufacturing index and Halifex house price index may provide a mixed performance. Coming to commodities, oil is trading marginally lower and we recommend selling from the higher levels

COMMODITY INTRADAY TIPS

SELL CRUDE OIL MCX NOV BELOW 5872 SL 5891 TGT 5855-5840

SELL GOLD MCX DEC BELOW 29713 SL 29760 TGT 29640

ECONOMIC INDICATORS:

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