Crude Oil prices continued to trade down in the last trading session and ended the day at $98.20, down by 48 cents from the previous close. Therefore, we have also seen oil prices falling in India and, the November futures contract settled at Rs 6057, down by Rs. 33 from its previous close. The major reason we cited in yesterday’s report for holding a bearish stance on oil was the Fed’s FOMC meet that is already in progress, where the Fed might talk about continuing its stimulus programme and second, the stocks data scheduled for release today by the US department of energy (DOE), which might show an increase in stocks along with the rise in the dollar against its rivals, which also supported lower trade in commodities. Therefore, the entire commodity sector has declined in the last trading session. Coming to Brent oil, which surged over 2.5% on Monday also fell a little, settling the day on a lower note. The economic data released from the US yesterday were also very disappointing. The consumer confidence has dropped sharply while the retail sales number and the PPI were also highly negative.
This morning, oil prices in the Asian markets have declined and at present are trading at $97.60, down by 0.60% from the previous close. We believe that the early morning losses being felt today are merely the impact of poor economic data released overnight from the US. So, the losses could continue to prevail in the market. However, we believe that Asian equities might remain positive while European markets too are expected to remain positive, which might restrict the losses in oil prices. Nevertheless, ahead of tonight’s petroleum inventory data release, we are expecting it to have a negative impact on oil, which might continue to pressure the commodity. Therefore, we continue to hold onto our bearish stance on oil for the day and recommend selling from the higher levels. In other oil-related news, reports released yesterday from the US indicated that the country’s policymakers are considering new sanctions against Iran which could slash the OPEC oil member’s exports by 50% over the next year. This might add to the volatility in the market. However, for the day we do not believe it will have much of an impact on the prices. The economic data expected today may have an impact on oil prices. To begin with, we have a few data this morning from Japan in the form of industrial production number, which we do not expect to be very impressive
Furthermore, from Germany and the euro-zone, we have the major unemployment rate data and a few confidence numbers. We believe that these data might improve slightly but, we believe that the euro might appreciate highly due to this, as the ECB itself proclaims to keep the currency lower by looking at the lower inflation and the economic growth. Coming straight to the US, we have the conventional economic data, the ADP employment change data which is expected to decline and the detailed CPI data, which is likely to decline further. Looking at the US data, we believe that it may continue to weigh on oil prices as the US is the largest consumer of oil in the world. Finally, as we have been discussing tonight, the FOMC rate decision is awaited and because of which, the markets may certainly be volatile and so, oil is also expected to remain cautious.
BULLION:
Gold Projected High Range at 30562-31083
Gold Projected Low Range at 30849-30328
Gold Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 30775-31391-32009
Gold Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 29734-29303-28692
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 30356
Silver Projected High Range at 49649-50031
Silver Projected Low Range at 49616-49234
Silver Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 49846-50217-50588
Silver Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 49083-48688-48318
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 49456
BASE METALS:
Copper Projected High Range at 449-451
Copper Projected Low Range at 448-445
Copper Mcx Nov Resistance on Upside at 450-452-455
Copper Mcx Nov Support on Low side at 445-441-438
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 447
Nickle Projected High Range at 896-900
Nickle Projected Low Range at 897-893
Nickel Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 898-902-907
Nickel Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 889-885-880
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 894
ENERGY:
Crude Projected High Range at 6083-6115
Crude Projected Low Range at 6098-6066
Crude Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 6096-6134-6174
Crude Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 6031-6004-5967
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6069
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 226-230
Natural Gas Projected Low Range at 226-222
Natural Gas Mcx Nov Resistance on Upside at 228-232-236
Natural Gas Mcx Nov Support on Low side at 221-217-213
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 224
Mentha oil Projected High Range at 837-843
Mentha oil Projected Low Range at 840-834
Mentha oil Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 839-846-853
Mentha oil Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 829-823-816
Mentha oil Trend Deciding Point at 834
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
SELL CRUDE OIL MCX NOV BELOW 6025 SL 6045 TGT 6009-5990
SELL NATURAL GAS MCX NOV BELOW 225 SL 228 TGT 222
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 30.10.2013 | 05:20 | JN | Industrial Production MoM | Sep P | 1.8% | -0.9% |
| 30.10.2013 | 50:20 | JN | Industrial Production YoY | Sep P | 5.6% | -0.4% |
| 30.10.2013 | 09:30 | JN | Vehicle Production YoY | Sep | — | -7.6% |
| 30.10.2013 | 14:25 | GE | Unemployment change(000’s) | Oct | 0K | 25k |
| 30.10.2013 | 14:25 | GE | Unemployment Rate | Oct | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 30.10.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Business climate indicator | Oct | -18.0% | -20.0% |
| 30.10.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Economic Confidence | Oct | 97.2 | 96.9 |
| 30.10.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Industrial Confidence | Oct | -6.5 | -6.7 |
| 30.10.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Consumer Confidence | Oct F | -14.5 | -14.5 |
| 30.10.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Services Confidence | Oct | -2.8 | -3.3 |
| 30.10.2013 | 16:30 | US | MBA Mortgage Application | 45931 | — | -0.6% |
| 30.10.2013 | 17:45 | US | ADP Employment Change | Oct | 148k | 166k |
| 30.10.2013 | 18:00 | US | CPI MoM | Sep | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 30.10.2013 | 18:00 | US | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Sep | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 30.10.2013 | 18:30 | GE | CPI MoM | Oct P | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 30.10.2013 | 18:30 | GE | CPI YoY | Oct P | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 30.10.2013 | 23:30 | US | FOMC Rate Decision | 11232 | — | 0.3% |
| 30.10.2013 | 23:30 | US | Fed Pace of MBS Purchase | Oct | $40 | $40 |
| 30.10.2013 | 23:30 | US | Fed Pace of Treasury Par | Oct | $45 | $45 |
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