Gold Trying to Stand From Last Ground

BULLION:

Gold October futures prices are trading at $1392, down by 0.27%. SPDR holdings, the largest bullion-backed ETF remained unchanged at 921 tons since 27 August. The dollar index is trading up by 0.24% against the major currencies and weakening gold prices in the morning. The other riskier assets are trading positive, which is weighing down on gold prices. From the European nations, the euro-zone’s producer price index and UK PMI construction spending are expected to improve at a slower pace, which would slightly support the shared currency and may limit the fall in gold prices. However, from the US session, construction spending is expected to increase along with ISM manufacturing, which would spur the gains in the US dollar and may extend the losses in gold prices. Coming to the domestic market, gold prices might record uneven movements due to the volatility in the rupee against the dollar. However, if the rupee depreciates, gains in gold prices could be seen. Gold prices at the international market are trading down on the back of a delay in possible military action in Syria by the US. However, these developments might slightly pressurize gold prices. Hence, investors should remain cautious as any development from the US against Syria might cause a rise in gold prices. Overall, we recommend buying from the lower levels in today’s session.

Gold Projected High Range at 33082-33443

Gold Projected Low Range at 32854-32946

Gold MCX Oct Resistance on Upside at 33301-33586-33872

Gold MCX Oct Support on Low side at 32578-32140-31854

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 32863

Silver Projected High Range at 55180-57275

Silver Projected Low Range at 53302-51207

Silver MCX Sep Resistance on Upside at 56541-58010-59497

Silver MCX Sep Support on Low side at 52351-49630-48161

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 53820

BASE METALS:

Base metals are likely to open fl at to slightly positive at the MCX in today’s session. Fundamentally, the sentiments have improved slightly, backed by higher Chinese and euro-zone PMI numbers. Higher Chinese home prices and the increase i n transaction volumes should remain favorable for base metals prices. Fundamentally, the metal stocks tracked at the LME have also witnessed a mild drawdown except for nickel, while the cancelled warrants declined and should weigh down on metal prices. Copper production is expected to exceed demand by 408,000 MT next year, the most since 2001, compared with the 1,67,000 MT in 2013 and should hold copper prices in check in today’s session. Gains in aluminum might also fade due to higher stocks and concern over high capacity. Overall, we expect that LME base metals might remain vulnerable in today’s session and selling at higher levels should be continued. Domestic investors should initiate selling at the higher levels as the rupee has weakened by nearly 0.76% against the dollar.

Copper Projected High Range at 496-502

Copper Projected Low Range at 492-486

Copper MCX Aug Resistance on Upside at 500-504-508

Copper MCX Aug Support on Low side at 489-482-478

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 493

Nickel Projected High Range at 926-932

Nickel Projected Low Range at 924-919

Nickel MCX Aug Resistance on Upside at 929-935-940

Nickel MCX Aug Support on Low side at 918-912-906

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 923

CRUDE:

This morning, most Asian equity indices are trading positive backed by optimism over improving manufacturing PMI in China and euro-zone yesterday. Early morning on Tuesday, Chinese non-manufacturing PMI increased at a slower pace and added slight weakness in commodity prices. During the day, we expect Euro-zone producer prices and UK construction PMI to remain at a blend. The US releases in the evening in the form of ISM manufacturing and construction spending might continue to improve and indirectly supporting bullishness in major commodities. On the domestic front, the rupee has opened with moderate loss of 0.4% which should limit the opening losses as seen at the MCX Crude based on the parity with the NYMEX. In the evening session, global oil and other major commodity markets could see enhancement in volatility as US markets resume normal trading post a long-weekend holiday on account of Labour Day. For oil, speculation would also increase on account of the forthcoming weekly crude inventory report from the DoE which, this week should be released on Thursday instead of Wednesday. Locally, Rupee is expected to remain volatile which should result in uneven movement for non-agri commodities though it’s trading bias seen on the downside. Cumulating all the local and global factors, we recommend, buying on declines for Crude oil in Intra-day.

Crude Projected High Range at 7206-7311

Crude Projected Low Range at 7138-7033

Crude MCX Sep Resistance on Upside at 7270-7352-7435

Crude MCX Sep Support on Low side at 7060-6932-6850

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 7142

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 248-252

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 245-241

Natural Gas MCX Aug Resistance on Upside at 251-251-257

Natural Gas MCX Aug Support on Low side at 243-238-235

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 246

Mentha Oil:

Since the morning futures platform prices were calm. However, prices ended the day on a positive note on the back of a rise in spot prices as well Spot prices in the Sambhal and Chandausi mandis were Rs 11.5/kg higher. Meanwhile, prices at the Barabanki mandi were quoting Rs 15/kg higher Arrivals were marginally changed. At the Barabanki mandi it was reaching 400-500 drums (1 drum = 180 kg) whereas in the Sambhal and Chandausi mandis arrivals were almost unchanged According to trade sources, mentha oil production in this crop year is expected to be around 52000–55000 MT. Although the numbers do not include the crops damaged by early monsoon effects and floods in the western regions of UP However, due to lower activity in the physical market, it did not show any movement in the first half of the day. Later on however, due to a pickup in export demand coupled with subdued supply pushed prices higher in the last trading hours Mentha oil prices are expected to hold their gains during today’s trading session. Lower supply at the spot front along with strong demand from mentha oil con

suming sectors might support an uptrend in prices.

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 940-955

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 925-910

Mentha Oil MCX Aug Resistance on Upside at 950-960-970

Mentha Oil MCX Aug Support on Low side at 920-900-890

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 930

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS

Buy Gold MCX Oct Near 33100 sl 32790 Tgt 33600

Sell Crude Oil MCX Sep Below 7160 Add More on Rise Near 7181 sl 7201 Tgt 7125

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

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