Crude commodity market has a Bloomberg survey, crude stockpiles expanded by around 750,000 barrels in the past week to 363 million. Distillate inventories on the other side are seen rising by 500,000 barrels while little changes is seen on the gasoline supplies front. Note that we have been maintaining a bearish bias over inventory data and mainly on Crude stocks as well as refinery utilization front which historically moves into seasonal maintenance during this time of the year. However, if we look at the other similar data from the private sector major API, news reports showed crude inventories dropped by huge 6.5 million barrels last week whereas stockpiles at Cushing rose moderately to 158,000 barrels. Though the same data showed no major demand coming as both gasoline and distillate stocks rose, this surely calls for a case wherein refinery activity might have increased last week. On a cumulative note, data release from the government backed DoE if follows the reading from API, it would be taken positively albeit with a pinch oas we still lack actual consumption. Looking at other international cues, spread between the two major benchmarks WTI and Brent slipped further to $5.10 levels. Looking at developments, Libya once again saw its oil production increasing to 800,000 barrels a day as the Sahara field restarted yesterday, report showed. That could be one of the major reasons behind Brent underperforming WTI in a big way yesterday despite the positivity over geo-political tensions front. We had a bullish view on WTI oil last day which went well wherein for the day we continue to hold modest bullish bias in the commodity. We suggest making momentary trades on the positive side for the day
Global Market View: Tuesday saw stocks falling off the cliff on global growth concerns as French and German flash PMIs came in lower than what market would have liked. The US posted a negative close so Asians are trading mostly mixed to slightly bearish this morning. From the global currency front, the USD index remained steady at 84.64, the shared currency euro is managing at $1.2853 while Yen and the pound sterling revived a slight gain in the morning. Coming to commodities, gold and silver were awfully volatile while they ended the day with marginal change from the previous close and this morning trading at$1223 and $17.73 mostly steady from the previous close. We saw a good recovery in oil prices especially the Tirade while Brent remained down. From the base metals front markets were all down except Nickel.
Natural Gas commodity market the latest developments in the markets, MDA Weather Services said the West Coast through the Midwest and into the Northeast will see above-normal temperatures over the next five days though if we check a separate weather forecasting report from the government we are getting conflicting view. Midday weather update of the government’s Global Forecast System “was a lot more moderate,” showing above-normal temperatures across most of the East Coast and South 11 to 15 days from yesterday, according to from Frontier Weather Inc. This could be one of the reasons behind gains getting faded away for NG and it closing lower. On Stocks front too, initial expectations depict inventories might have increased by 97 BCF, higher than last week data. We hold selling stance in the commodity today
Sell Mcx Copper Nov below 415 SL 418 Tgt 412
Buy Mcx Crude above at 5600 SL 5545 Tgt 5650