Crude oil commodity market: As per the latest reading, we are seeing modest pullback in WTI wherein as per the electronic trading it with markets taking modest optimism out of the tomorrows weekly inventory report. Initial expectations show, mcx crude stocks may fall by 1.5 million barrels though no major changes are seen on the products front wherein gasoline inventories would be closely watched as markets went through the official ending of the US summer driving season which ended with Labor Day holiday, in the previous week. We are not very optimistic about the inventory reading wherein also feels some more drag coming out of the fall in refinery utilization rate in the last week and coming week/s as well.
Additionally in Libya, officials from National Oil Corp said the country was pumping 740,000 BPD worth of oil currently, higher from 700,000 BPD during last fortnight and smartly higher than 400,000 BPD worth of average in the month of July. Overall we feel, these cues might continue to weigh oil commodity in intraday though profitability may remain constringed due to some uncertainty over inventory data.We advice selling the commodity on pullbacks today.
Also, there is news related to Brent that falling Chinese imports bolstered concern that slower growth will worsen a global oil surplus. As said yesterday too, Chinese imports slumped 2.4percentage in August, data from the Beijing-based customs administration show. Economic growth in China, the biggest oil consuming country after the U.S., will drop to 7.4percentage this year, the weakest pace since 1991.
Global Market View: We start the day with the fact that non-food commodities are trading lower this morning in Asia. When as talk about bullion, they are largely flat as of now, oil is trading below 14 months low and all the non-ferrous metals have plummeted a tad. We talk about global markets, all the Asian markets are marginally positive though US posted with a minor bearish tone. From the currency front, euro tumbled to $1.2880, pound sterling at $1.6080, Japanese Yen declined sharply to 106 and the USD index is trading at 84.40. The entire market is in mayhem.
Economic data for today: Japan consumer confidence & Machine tool order, UK: trade balance, Industrial production & from the US NFIB small business optimism.
Natural gas commodity market outlook: There are no major changes in market forecasts over weather or onto the US production and stocks side wherein all of the three continue to cast negativity over the commodity. While we had maintained a selling stance yesterday, we had cautioned traders against anticipated pullback. We still maintain sell view in the commodity and expect it to maintain its broad weak trend short term.Expectations about cooler temperature in the larger parts of the US except the Western region stay and likely to trim forecasts over demand for NG. Recommend selling today with strict stop loss anyplace.
Sell crude oil mcx sep on rise near 5643 sl 5680 tgt 5625
Sell natural gas mcx sep on rise near 236 sl 240 tgt 233