Nifty Future Momentum Call & FII Derivative Outlook – 05 October’2012

The Bse Index Shuts at 19058 up 189 points from its Previous Close or +1%. The Nse Index Shuts at 57187 up +57 Points from its Previous Close or +0.98%.

  • End of The Daily Chart Nifty Weekly average moved at 5715 below that monthly average at 5545. On Daily Chart rsi overbought with bullish divergence. Cci move above +100 with bullish cross over. Positional Nifty can touch 5960.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 24911 Contracts of Index Future, worth 714 cores with net OI decreasing by 1843 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was up by 57 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 1843, so FII have booked partial profits Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Big Bang Reform 2might turns out to be Buy Rumor and Sell news kind of event.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5787 after making a 18 month high of 5807 but unable to close above 5800 on closing basis, Bulls are in control of market as they have closed nifty above 5740 on closing basis .As discussed the double bottom effect at 5638 is showing up. Another gap has been created today from 5731-5751
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5807 and 5838 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5775 and 5745 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5680 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.56 cores with a addition of 5 Lakh in OI, longs got added in Nifty future. Only point of Concern is the 2.56 Cores in OI with just 4 days into the October series, now this clearly shows overconfidence of Bulls. Most probably we will see a dip in market so that weak bulls are flushed out. So hold longs with strict stop loss.
  • Total F&O turnover was at 1.09 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.22 lakh. PCR at 0.94 and VIX at 16.44, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a up move till 18.5-19 is on cards.
  • 6000 CALL is having highest Open Interest of 60 lakhs with fresh addition of 0.50 lakhs in OI. 5900 CE Open Interest at 50 is second highest lakhs, with fresh addition of 3 lakhs.5800 CE saw an unwinding of 10 lakhs so bears were taken by surprise with Nifty above 5800 and ran for cover and 6100 CE also added 6.4 lakhs ,premium of Rs 8.7 in OI which suggests speculative activity have started in higher calls.5400-6100 CE saw an unwinding of added 6.7 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5700 PUT is having highest Open Interest of 55.8 lakhs with fresh addition of  7.2 lakhs in OI, Bulls want to make  5700 as base for starting of October Series.5800 PE added 13 lakhs in OI premium being 71 so bulls are now concentrating on 5800 PE. With small base in OI of 28 lakhs if tomorrow we see it coming towards 40 lakhs 5800 can act as base else bulls will need to run for cover as they are becoming overconfident. 5400-6100 PE added 27.9 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 944 cores and DII sold 818 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 51.83. FII sold 157.66 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5781(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5751 Nifty (For Positional Traders).
  • 5 DMA at 5718
  • 20 DMA at 5553
  • 50 DMA at 5389
  • 200 DMA at 5192
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 87 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 76. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 58003 and above the level marks the track point at 5844 later zipper levels at 5866 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5755 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5733 later dipping levels near 56711 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 05 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5845 sl 5822 Tgt 5866-5888 {Or} Sell Below 5800 sl 5822 Tgt 5777-5755

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 05 Oct’2012:

Buy above 11755 sl 11711 Tgt 11844-11933 {Or} Sell below 11666 sl 11711 Tgt 11622-11577.