Today Gold & Crude Will Step Down

BULLION:

Gold October futures prices are trading at $1276, down 0.47% from the previous close. Currently, the dollar index is trading marginally up by 0.06%, weighing gold prices down by 0.40%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that positive economic data from the US has increased speculation that the Central bank might taper the monetary stimulus soon, supporting the dollar and pressurizing gold prices. From the derivatives point of view, prices have declined while volumes and open interest have increased, which indicates that new money is entering the markets and investors are aggressively short-selling. SPDR holdings, the largest bullion-backed ETF declined by 0.22% and settled at 915 tons, indicating that gold prices may remain under pressure. At present, gold prices are trading down and, we expect slight gains in the afternoon session due to the German industrial production. As stated in our global market analysis in the European hours, German industrial production is expected to rise, which would support the euro and limit the fall in gold prices. During the US hours, mortgage numbers might remain mixed. However, gold prices may be pressurized due to the appreciation in the dollar.

Gold Projected High Range at 27797-27999

Gold Projected Low Range at 27933-27731

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 27875-28123-28370

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 27472-27315-27068

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 27719

Silver Projected High Range at 41858-42203

Silver Projected Low Range at 42096-41751

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 41991-42415-42838

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 41302-41037-40613

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 41726

BASE METALS:

The Base metals to open marginally positive and to remain higher until the afternoon, supported by positive German industrial production and higher optimism in the euro-zone and US. (US GDP growth outlook for second quarter was increased by S&P while the euro-zone releases have also improved). Going ahead, we expect the gains in base metals to fade o n the back of concerns of a Chinese slow down and weak consumption. The US mortgage applications should remain weak in the evening while tomorrow’s Chinese trade and inflation data might remain weak and support the weakness in base metals. Overall, selling at the higher levels should be continued for the rest of the days this week.

Copper Projected High Range at 434-439 Copper Projected Low Range at 437-433

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 436-441-446

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 428-424-419

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 433

Nickel Projected High Range at 857-867

Nickel Projected Low Range at 863-854

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 861-873-885

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 841-833-821

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 853

CRUDE:

Today evening, Crude Oil, the most important weekly crude stock data would be released by the US Department of Energy. The data might show a 500,000 barrel fall in gasoline inventories and crude stocks 1.5 million barrel lower at 363.1 million last week. While the above observations are based on the survey by Bloomberg, which also adds that the refinery utilization rate might once again see a squeeze by 0.3% points, we feel that there is a chance for a positive surprise from the gasoline inventory front as well as towards the refinery utilization data, which might support oil prices from the lower levels. We had reported a recent drop in the refinery utilization rate, which could be because refiners might have waited to let the product (gasoline, distillates) supplies to clear off from the total inventory. However, US oil demand continues to be higher during the current summer driving season, which is expected to remain in force until late September and should continue to support oil prices higher. Looking at the trading scenario for today, we feel that the markets, at least in the early morning session could remain under pressure owing to the weak equity trading sentiments from the US. Statements that the Fed should curtail its monthly bond purchase program have also row over the last couple of days, which should also moderately pressurize the commodity markets, including oil. We recommend selling in the morning and afternoon sessions (IST), following the inherent bearishness in the key capital and commodity markets today.

Crude Projected High Range at 6538-6625

Crude Projected Low Range at 6622-6525

Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6568-6682-6796

Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6395-6336-6222

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6509

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 206-2-207.7

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 206.7-205.2

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 207-209-210.20

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 204-202.50-201

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 205.50

Mentha Oil:

Yesterday Mentha, spot prices at the Barabanki mandi were lower at Rs 12.5/kg compared to the previous day’s spot prices. Meanwhile, spot prices at the Sambhal and Chandausi mandis were marginally lower at Rs 5/kg compared to the previous day’s spot prices Arrivals at the major mandis of Uttar Pradesh stood at 800-900 drums (1 drum = 180 kg) Continuous rainfall coupled with a lack of farmer interest led to lesser arrivals at the physical markets Despite the decline in arrivals at the spot front, domestic demands as well export demand are still sluggish. This scenario is pushing prices lower

Reports of higher production in this crop year in the major mentha growing regions, along with limited export cues is building negative sentiments in physical market activities Technically, we recommend range – bound trade today. However, a pullback is expected in the current mentha oil futures contract.

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 855-865

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 847-837

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 861-869-876

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 841-828-820

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 848

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS

Buy Copper Mcx Aug above 432.50 sl 430 Tgt 434.50

Sell Gold Mcx Oct Below 27575 sl 27675 Tgt 27475

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

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