Bullion can Move East or West

BULLION:

Gold October futures are trading at $1365, down 0.65%. The dollar index is trading up by 0.38% against the major currencies, weighing down on gold prices at the COMEX. SPDR holdings, the largest bullion-backed ETF declined by 0.07% and settled at 913 tons from the previous close, which indicates that gold prices might remain under pressure. In the FOMC minutes, the Fed members said that they are comfortable with the tapering of the monetary stimulus program on the back of the improvement in the US economy. This might keep gold prices under pressure in today’s session at the international front. However, the PMI manufacturing numbers from the euro-zone are expected to remain positive for the economy, which would support the euro and limit the losses in gold prices at the international market. At the domestic front, gold prices might remain on the higher side on cues from the weaker rupee against the dollar. However, the rupee might appreciate in the afternoon session on the back of the appreciation in the euro against the dollar. Hence, gold prices are expected to remain volatile on the back of the rupee depreciation and the economic releases from Europe and the US. The tapering of the quantitative easing by the Fed might also play a factor in the fluctuating gold prices.

Gold Projected High Range at 31489-31949

Gold Projected Low Range at 31139-30680

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 31777-32120-32463

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 30858-30282-29939

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 31201

Silver Projected High Range at 51577-52462

Silver Projected Low Range at 51088-50203

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 52102-52823-53545

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 50331-49283-48561

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 51053

BASE METALS:

This morning, base metals forwards at the LME are trading positive while the domestic currency has also depreciated by 0.77% against the dollar and should result in a gap-up opening at the MCX. Fundamentally, the spot demand for copper and zinc has improved while aluminum recorded a fall in stocks and, this should continue to support slight gains in base metals prices. Vietnam is also planning to increase the resource tax by 8%, which should increase the cost of production of a few base metals and support gains. Going ahead, better euro-zone PMI and increasing US house prices should also remain favorable and hence, buying at dips should be recommended. Investors are also recommended to remain cautious in the afternoon as any near -term correction in the rupee might limit the gains in base metals prices at the MCX.

Copper Projected High Range at 472-477

Copper Projected Low Range at 469-463

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 475-479-483

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 465-459-454

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 469

Nickel Projected High Range at 936-946

Nickel Projected Low Range at 942-932

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 940-952-965

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 920-912-899

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 932

CRUDE:

Amongst key cues for the WTI on Wednesday, the US Department of Energy (DoE) inventory report said that crude stocks fell 1.4 million barrels for the week ended August 16 whereas gasoline inventories declined by 4 million barrels against market expectations of a near 1.5 million barrel fall for both of them. Though the higher than expected fall in inventories and better refinery utilization rate, which jumped by 1.6% last week depicts that the US seasonal demand remained strong, oil prices continued to decline amidst a broader market sell-off in almost all the asset classes globally. Some other cues for the commodity which had an impact, especially the US-based WTI were news reports that the 90,000 barrel per day Hawthorn pipeline, which carries oil from a terminal in Stroud, Oklahoma to Cushing was preparing to restart for the first time since August 2012. A fresh increase in the flow of oil to Cushing, the delivery point for US oil which has already been battling against high stocks acted as a major negative against the WTI yesterday. In today’s session, Asian equities are trading mixed with a positive

Bias as they try to recoup some of the losses registered over the last couple of sessions. The markets are on a mixed note as the Fed minutes failed to provide clear guidelines on the future tapering of asset purchases. The Fed minutes once again showed that QE3 might be ended mid-2014, provided economic data remains in-line with forecasts. During early trade, the Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI increased above 50 and supported the trend in industrial metals space though Crude prices still remain weak. Going ahead, PMI numbers from the EU should continue to improve and support a recovery in oil. From the US, jobless claims and the house price index could also see improvement.

Crude Projected High Range at 6772-6854

Crude Projected Low Range at 6745-6661

Crude Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 6817-6890-6961

Crude Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 6654-6563-6492

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6726

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 225-230

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 222-217

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 228-231-235

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 219-213-209

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 222

Mentha Oil:

On Wednesday, spot prices at the Sambhal and Chandausi mandis were hovering at Rs 960/kg. Meanwhile Prices at the Barabanki mandi prices were at Rs 940/kg. Harvesting has almost been completed in the major mentha growing regions and is leading to lower arrivals in the physical markets.

Arrivals across the major mandis of Uttar Pradesh arrivals stood at only 700-800 drums, comparatively lower than the arrivals of the last few days (1 drum = 180 kg) subdued supply in the physical markets along with strong export demand supported mentha oil prices in the futures platform as well. According to the IMD forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall could occur in isolated places over Uttar Pradesh (which includes major mentha growing regions also) Weather concerns might lead to a lack of buyers at the spot front, which might limit the gains in mentha oil prices to some extent. Technically we are recommending a range–bound trade in today’s trading session

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 861-874

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 861-848

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 867-880-892

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 842-830-817

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 855

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS

Buy Gold Mcx Oct above 31300 sl 31210 Tgt 31420

Sell Natural Gas below 224.30 sl 222.60 Tgt 222.30

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

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