Category Archives: MCX India

Continuing Claims and Commodity Trading Tips

Posted on by

Crude oil commodity trading  held a cautious approach yesterday wherein we advised traders to look for only momentary trades as on one side largely positive equities, cues from PBOC and OPEC supply cut comments were seen adding fresh increase in the commodity though we were expecting some weakness to be held due to negative expectations over inventory data.

As per the commodity stocks report from the DoE, crude inventories gained 3.67 million barrels against markets forecast of a fall in the range of 1.5 million, though we were anticipating as weaker reading. If we look into products gasoline stocks fell at a decent rate though could not provide any major support to prices which closed weaker by 0.5percentageyesterday. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels while distillate stock increased by 279,000 barrels.

As of early Asian trade, we are looking at a weaker WTI and Brent oil prices where both of them down by over 0.5percentage. For the day, weaker expectations over US housing and manufacturing related data, strong gains in US Dollar and dragging effect of the subdued US stocks report would keep the commodity under pressure wherein we recommend selling the same at the NYMEX and MCX commodity markets for small targets.

Global Market View: Dollar is turning out to be the emperor of the currency markets this year with the Index moving to multi-year highs to 84.65 marks after taking positive cues from the FOMC meeting. Euro fell whereas Japanese Yen too slid to multi-year lows. Though the US FOMC meeting outcome looked a bit hawkish at first glance, the FED continued to claim its commitment towards lower levels of interest rates for the foreseeable future and re-iterated its view over labor market wherein the same still need very good improvement over wages growth front. Asian markets are trading on a mixed to positive note following moderate positivity in US equities which closed higher.

Economic data: EU Targeted LTRO Update, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Jobless claims data

Natural gas commodity trading market prices continued to track positive short-term developments over warmer weather forecasts in the US West. We held a positive bias yesterday though today have a cautious view as the commodity may see good volatility due stocks report. Early estimates stand for a addition of around 90 BCF, similar a last week though we feel am modest chance for positivism can be there in inventory as US recorded good amount of cooler temperatures lately. For the day, we have a ranged view in the commodity. Still short-term view in the commodity still remains weak.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell crude Sep mcx below 5755 SL 5810 TP 5680

Sell Silver Dec mcx below 41370 SL 41450 TP 40800

Crude Inventory and Commodity Market Tips

Posted on by

 

Crude oil commodity market trading at the NYMEX advanced almost 2percentage yesterday to close firmly over the $94 per barrel mark against our view that the commodity might see bearish momentum continuing due to ease in global supplies and amidst weak demand in the US. OPEC comments of a probable supply cut in 2015 was conjugated with intraday slump in the US Dollar and rising equities which supported the uptick in oil though fundamentally, there has been no major changes seen. OPEC daily output target may fall by 500,000 barrels to 29.5 MBPD in 2015, Abdalla El-Badri said at OPEC’s secretariat in Vienna though curiously Brent November month contract did not gained much.

If we look at the API stocks data, crude stocks increased by 3.3 million barrels last week while gasoline supplies slid by 1.2 million, news reports showed. While Bloomberg survey project fall in both Crude and gasoline stocks for the DoE, there is scope of negativity which might weigh against any major gains in oil from here. However, while looking at broad market dynamics like equities, Chinese cues and moderate correction in USD; we may not see a big fall either.

Global Market View: Yesterday’s trade was filled with high volatility wherein almost all asset classes witnessed mercurial movements. The Dollar Index which is awaiting cues from the US FOMC meeting slipped during intraday trade to record its biggest fall since May month. Markets speculated that the Fed might refrain from providing any major time-line for reducing interest rates in the US and thus volatility in USD was seen. The effect was seen on US equities which advanced whereas in commodities Crude oil and Base metals seconded higher. Bullion registered decent volatility before closing little changed on a day to day comparison. In major developments from Asia, Chinese PBOC is planning to do liquidity injections by around 500 Bln Yuan ($81 Bln) into the nation’s leading banks, according to a government administrator well-known with the matter. This can also be seen as a major aspect behind positive movement in metals and energy prices yesterday.

Economic Support: EU and US CPI, Current Account, NAHB Housing Market Index and lastly but most importantly FOMC Meeting outcome which would be released post our markets closing.

Natural gas commodity trading once again advanced tracking positive developments over warmer weather forecasts in the US West and also some southern parts on the country. While the commodity is gaining for last two sessions and likely that modest positive bias might continue in today’s session as well. Nevertheless note that other weather related developments showed US Great Lakes and northeastern states will see pockets of cooler air over the next week. This might indirectly infused gradual weakening of warmer weather forecast and thus drive away near-term demand for heating which has been driving prices higher in last couple of day. We recommend buying the commodity today, though advice taking only intraday movements.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Gold mcx Oct below 27015 SL 27110 Tgt 26900

Buy Crude mcx Sep above 5758 SL 5710 Tgt 5860

PPI Final Demand and Commodity Intraday Tips

Posted on by

Crude oil commodity market prices rebounded smartly from its intraday lows wherein at one point of time, it was down around 2percentage while finally ended the session higher by around 0.7percentage to $92.90 per barrel mark. While there is no specified reason for the commodity to bounce back from its lows other than a probable technical pullback, other indicators continue to cast negative shadow over the black liquid.

We saw the US Industrial production data disappoint heavily meanwhile Chinese cues too continue to support weakness. If we look at other broad fundamental perspective, the commodity is weighed down by ease in global supplies as been the case lately wherein the impact is witnessed in both the Brent and the WTI. If we look at the initial forecasts for the inventory front, DoE data might show fall in crude stockpiles by 1.5 million barrels whereas gasoline stocks too seen falling marginally. Positive expectations over inventory may help the commodity not fall much; however weaker equities, ease in oil supplies and subdued Chinese data points would continue to hold it down. We recommend selling the commodity on pullbacks today for small profits.

Note that on a technical perspective too, prices look for some pullback initially after which we might register sell. On that note, we have bought and later sell recommendation in NYMEX markets today. AT MCX though, we advice sell at higher level. We hold our Spread strategy as recommend yesterday. Buy MCX Oct – Sell MCX Sep as weaker demand for the commodity should reduce the backwardation ahead of expiry this week.

Global Market View: Equities in the US finished on a mixed to weaker note though we saw huge slide in the Technology Index, the NASDAQ as probably traders look to book profits ahead of the crucial two day FED meeting starting today. Cautiousness prevails in the Asian equities as well wherein we are seeing moderate drop in all major indices however in currency space, the USDX was marginally lower to 84.15 levels while the Euro currency gained near a similar percentage. As stated earlier, markets focus this week would remain on the FOMC meeting wherein expectations are high that the US central bank would give a time-line for rising interest rates in the country. It is also likely to extend the cut of its bond–purchase program.

Economic Data: German and EU ZEW Economic Sentiment data along with US PPI report. Note after the disappointing IP number from US yesterday, we may see some negative surprise over PPI data.

Natural gas Commodity market climbed yesterday, extending its gains from last week. While we held a range bias in the commodity with negative bias on expectations that the commodity might look for fresh triggers over weather, extended warmer weather outlook in the USC west probably supported the commodity yesterday. While weather related changes are depicting a very high volatility in the US lately, we hold a cautious stand in the commodity though still believe, any major positivism in prices in unlikely. Intraday outlook is seen ranged.

Commodity Intraday tips

Sell crude mcx Sep below 5705 SL 5730 Tgt 5620

Sell Silver mcx Dec below 41600 SL 41850 Tgt 41300

Capacity Utilization and Commodity Trading Tips

Posted on by

 

Crude oil commodity trading during the week, global oil prices came under huge pressure tracking developments from the IEA (International Energy Agency) which in its report said global consumption for oil is seen increasing by 1.2 MBPD to 93.8 MBPD in 2015, lower by 165,000 BPD as compared to its own forecast in the previous month. Short-term markets sentiment was further dented by comments that Q2, 2014 consumption for the commodity fell to a near a 2 and ½ year low amidst weakening demand from world’s two largest consumers EU and China. Subdued demand from these regions forced the agency to trim its demand forecast for the current and next year as well.

As per the latest developments in the fresh week, we are seeing good fall in Asian equities along with the industrial commodities which is hurting crude oil prices as well. We saw highly disappointing Chinese Industrial production data during the weekend wherein August IP which grew by just 6.9percentage. WTI oil prices have declined over a per cent today with Chinese data along with dragging concerns over ease in global oil supply taking a toll on oil prices. Last week, already we have seen a fall by around 4percentage in Brent crude and probably some of its effect too could be getting replicated into the US Crude as the WTI in electronic session is lower to by 1.2percentage while today Brent lost around 0.6percentage to trade near two year low. We may see good gap-down opening in Indian crude today, note that Rupee has depreciated in the opening and would be a critical factor to watch during the day. We recommend selling from

Global Market View: Let us begin the week with a little sanguinity to have a good day ahead. We have already seen so much of movement in the early morning. No doubt, the markets are jittery as well as in red. The Asian markets are trading in negative after the Chinese data released over the weekend showed that industrial production in the country rose at an annualized rate of 6.9percentage in August, missing estimates for a gain of 8.8percentage and sharply lower from an increase of 9percentage a month earlier. The consequences are gold and silver fell down early morning while they have revived from the lows and currently trading at $1234 and $18.64. Today would be the day when investors might be little baffled with the trading recommendation though the overall view remains down. Oil prices have declined over a percent and the base metals too have declined with an average loss of more than half per cent.

Economic data: India Trade Balance and Exports /Imports, US Manufacturing Activity in the Empire State and Industrial Production higher levels in oil for the day. However, we need to be little cautious about volatility may remain high in US session.

Natural gas commodity trading  was advancing in first half last week on anticipation of cooling demand in the US though the commodity plunged in second half following warmer weather forecasts in near–term and also appended by disappointing inventory report. US EIA showed, NG stocks jumped by 92 BCF higher than expand prior figures. Currently cooler weather has receded and is likely to be taken over by normal temperatures in East while moderately hot climate in West and North-West region. Above weather related cues may keep NG volatile in a small range. With broader view continuing to be negative side, we keep up selling bias with small possibility and profit potential for the day. Locally, Rupee movement would be watched.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Silver mcx Dec Below at 41650 SL 41830 Tgt 41300

Sell Crude mcx oil Sep below at 5630 SL 5665 TP 5560

Business Inventories and Commodity Intraday Trading

Posted on by

 

Crude oil Commodity Intraday trading as per the latest developments, Asian equity markets are trading weaker post the mixed to weaker Chinese lending data which surged more than 80percentage on a Mom comparison however still stood marginally lower than expectations. Already we have seen Chinese PPI and CPI number yesterday wherein both readings disappointed heavily and also one of the major reasons behind pressure on industrial commodities lately including oil.

Looking at the oil prices, yesterday we saw US oil jumping smartly from lows which was accompanied with better volumes which increase by near 27percentage at NYMEX however OI figures are unavailable to us right now. While we check the same numbers for MCX crude, data suggests Vol increased by 13percentage though OI fell by a similar rate and thus depicting towards a probably short-covering post the huge fall in prices in last couple of days. With Brent oil continuing to trade on a weaker note, economic data from China and EU remaining subdued, we feel broad pressure on oil prices would continue.

Global Market View: We have been seeing an incredible strength in the Dollar Index, if it ends up this week (which in all probability it will) this would be its9th consecutive up week to trade higher. The USD at present is trading at 84.35; Euro tumbled to $1.2918,Japanese yen the worst hit at 107.40, pound sterling managing at $1.6234.Moving onto commodities straight, we saw carnage in the market. The entire assets under commodities declined and looks like the same scenario may continue today.

Economic data: China released its money supply number which has declined a tad especially the M1 and M2money. This indicates poor circulation of funds in the economy, prompting soon a stimulus package.

Economic data today:

Japan: Industrial production

Germany: Wholesale price index

Euro-zone: Industrial production and the employment data

India: CPI, likely to slow down a bit and the IIP number.

US: retail sales, import price index and the business inventories.

Natural gas commodity intraday trading yesterday amongst major data, the EIA data showed N for stocks for week ended Sept 5 increased higher than expected by 92 BCF as against last week’s and expected reading. Also inventories continue to increase higher than last five year average data wherein 5 Yr avg for this time of the year stands at just 60 BCF further inflicting prices. We re-iterate our stand that the commodity continues in a bearish phase owing to the fact that higher production in the US and lower demand pushes it lower. Traders note that Rupee might narrow down the short-side potential for the commodity.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Crude oil mcx Sep below 5680 sl 5715 Tgt 5570

Sell natural gas mcx Sep below 237 SL 240 Tgt 232

 

Initial Jobless Claims and Commodity Trading

Posted on by

 

Gold Commodity Intraday trading has no major changes in Bullion fundamentals as markets continue to wait for fresh triggers in a week which lacks any major economic cues. We feel there is a possibility of good move in next two days as there are few economic readings from the US and also a number of US FED Managers are going to speak at different events. Hopes of earlier than estimated rise in interest rates is one of the major reasons behind continued weakness in Gold lately. While, we look at the volume and open interests along with price performance both the variables are supportive of the bearish trend so we recommend selling from higher levels. ThoughSPDR ETF holdings rose by 3MT yesterday, they largely remain unsupportive. We recommend selling from higher levels today.

Global Market View: Major global equity markets ended last day with a minute change while Asian markets are trading slightly positive today. Therefore, we may see the local unit opening higher against the USD while we believe during the day it may again depreciate a tad. From the global currency front, markets are more or less stable. The USD index is trading at 84.24, euro is at $1.2915and the pound sterling is at $1.6198.Now, we move on to commodities, both gold and silver which fell again last day are seen trading steady at $1249 and$18.96. The Oil is trading at $91.75 and the base metals are trading steady from the previous day’s close.

Gold extended another day of range bound trade in the international markets though bias remained weaker both at the Commodity and MCX. Gold Commodity Dec contract fell 0.25percentage to $1245 an ounce whereas at MCX, October expiry metal fell 0.3percentage to Rs 27180 per 10 Gms.

Economic data: German CPI at 11: 30 AM IST, US Weekly Jobless Claims numbers at 6 PM IST and the Monthly budget statement.

Silver Commodity trading has no major changes in silver commodity as also been the case with gold as stated above. We continue to hold a bearish bias in the two metals. Re-iterating our yesterday’s view silver is managing better performance than gold in last two-three days which is not significant though makes us cautious as either there is some internal positivity which is not updated in markets or otherwise we should see strong sell-off in the commodity sooner. We hold sell stance in Intra-day whereas continue to be on the sidelines on our view over Ratio.

Silver was no different in terms of intraday performance yesterday though the whitish metal continue to manage tads better performance as compared to gold, as been the case during most of this week. Commodity December Silver closed unchanged yesterday at $18.92 an ounce whereas Indian Silver for same month’s settlement too closed flat to Rs 41950 per Kg.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Silver mcx Dec below 42070 SL  41300 Tgt 41700

Sell Gold mcx Oct below 27280 SL  27370 Tgt – 27100

Wholesale Inventories and Commodity Trading Tips

Posted on by

Crude oil Commodity market trading  as of the latest cues in Asia, WTI  adding marginally, higher by 0.2percentage currently with markets hoping that government report might show a better than expected fall in Crude stocks as also seen in the case of API reading which was released earlier this morning. Crude stocks slipped by 1.9 million barrels in the past week as per news reports suggested for the API. Today evening the more important DoE stocks data would be released wherein the markets forecasts range from a fall of about 1-1.5 million barrel. In Products though, the reading was not very positive over the movement in gasoline and distillate stocks.

Looking at the other developments, quite in the Asia region were trading weaker with average falls around 0.5percentage on backed by issues over weaker growth in China. Separately, yesterday we saw the US EIA coming out with its monthly Energy report wherein the agency reduced forecasts over demand and also trimmed prices forecasts for the Brent and the WTI for the latter half of the year. We feel that along with good drop in Brent yesterday might be one of the major reasons behind drop in WTI from its highs. We feel, all above cues would continue to weigh the commodity wherein we hold our selling view in oil for the day. Volatility may remain higher especially in the evening session due to the US DoE inventory report. Bias remains weaker today.

Economic data: India’s car sales number, Export-import data and US wholesale inventories.

Global Market View: Some of the large cap stocks posted a negative trend last day so entire US market traded down by more than half percent and the same is seen today in the Asia. However, Asian markets are at present trading down by more than a per cent. From the global currency front, euro, pound and Yen have attempted to recover a tad and currently trading marginally positive.

We now move on to commodities, gold, silver traded down but the pace of loss were very minimal. Crude oil was down with good intraday volatility and ended lower while base metals had seen a massacre bearish movement in a single day, such kind was not noticed in the recent past.

Natural gas commodity market trading as there are no major changes in market dynamics for the commodity with weather related updates too showing continued cooler temperatures in the larger part of the US. Nevertheless, cooler weather which was seen as a subdued demand indicator during the lead shifting of summer to autumn season. The same however is in last two days is being projected as the factor which might lead to better heating demand. Tough Short-term scenario still remains bearish due to persistently rising production, lower actual demand and unfavorable weather, we are getting hit due to high volatility in intraday lately. We are refraining from any recommendation in NG for the day and would await fresh cues before developing our stance.

 Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Crude oil mcx sep below 5710 sl 5740 tgt  5610

Sell Silver mcx Dec below 42340 sl 42600 tgt 41600

NFIB Small Business Optimism and Commodity Market Tips

Posted on by

Commodity Market TipsCrude oil commodity market: As per the latest reading, we are seeing modest pullback in WTI wherein as per the electronic trading it with markets taking modest optimism out of the tomorrows weekly inventory report. Initial expectations show, mcx crude stocks may fall by 1.5 million barrels though no major changes are seen on the products front wherein gasoline inventories would be closely watched as markets went through the official ending of the US summer driving season which ended with Labor Day holiday, in the previous week. We are not very optimistic about the inventory reading wherein also feels some more drag coming out of the fall in refinery utilization rate in the last week and coming week/s as well.

Additionally in Libya, officials from National Oil Corp said the country was pumping 740,000 BPD worth of oil currently, higher from 700,000 BPD during last fortnight and smartly higher than 400,000 BPD worth of average in the month of July. Overall we feel, these cues might continue to weigh oil commodity in intraday though profitability may remain constringed due to some uncertainty over inventory data.We advice selling the commodity on pullbacks today.

Also, there is news related to Brent that falling Chinese imports bolstered concern that slower growth will worsen a global oil surplus. As said yesterday too, Chinese imports slumped 2.4percentage in August, data from the Beijing-based customs administration show. Economic growth in China, the biggest oil consuming country after the U.S., will drop to 7.4percentage this year, the weakest pace since 1991.

Global Market View: We start the day with the fact that non-food commodities are trading lower this morning in Asia. When as talk about bullion, they are largely flat as of now, oil is trading below 14 months low and all the non-ferrous metals have plummeted a tad. We talk about global markets, all the Asian markets are marginally positive though US posted with a minor bearish tone. From the currency front, euro tumbled to $1.2880, pound sterling at $1.6080, Japanese Yen declined sharply to 106 and the USD index is trading at 84.40. The entire market is in mayhem.

Economic data for today: Japan consumer confidence & Machine tool order, UK: trade balance, Industrial production & from the US NFIB small business optimism.

Natural gas commodity market outlook: There are no major changes in market forecasts over weather or onto the US production and stocks side wherein all of the three continue to cast negativity over the commodity. While we had maintained a selling stance yesterday, we had cautioned traders against anticipated pullback. We still maintain sell view in the commodity and expect it to maintain its broad weak trend short term.Expectations about cooler temperature in the larger parts of the US except the Western region stay and likely to trim forecasts over demand for NG. Recommend selling today with strict stop loss anyplace.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell crude oil mcx sep on rise near 5643 sl 5680 tgt 5625

Sell natural gas mcx sep on rise near 236 sl 240 tgt 233

Business Inventories and Commodity Tips

Posted on by

Gold Mcx Commodity is trading at $1307 and we believe overall bearish trend which has been seen for the past several months is in progress and we recommend selling from higher levels. We had an idea about $1355 as resistance levels for Comex Gold though markets made a high of $1345 last week and then declined so possibly the bearish trend is again confirmed. Locally too, we are shifting our strategy to sell whereas into the different Gold contracts, we continue to maintain our stance that Contango between MCX Aug-Oct Gold may further narrow after the FM refrained from cutting Import duty in Budget. So traders can sellAug-Buy Oct on pullbacks for short-term. Also a same strategy can be followed between MCX/ACE Gold wherein MCX would remain a sell though ACE Gold Hedge a buy in very short-term Global Market Analysis: Our view on Bullion went wrong last day. We were unable to judge the positive development over EU-Portugal banks, Israel’s progress whereas the US stocks rose to another record. Comex gold crashed about $40 from day’s high. Meanwhile, euro-zone IP number coming in-line with estimates also pulled markets lower. Asian markets are trading positive this morning; the USD index is trading a bit down near 80.20.From the economic data front today, we have the Zew survey from the GE, EU and from the US we have empire manufacturing index and retail sales .

Silver Commodity we had a similar outlook in silver commodity as with gold yesterday wherein we maintained moderate buying in the commodity. With our bias in base metals too standing mostly positive, we also advised traders to look for selling the Gold/Silver Ratio for small profits and hold for a day or two. Nevertheless, our view there too went against us as silver underperformed gold marginally and probably traders might be sitting with some loss. As with the fresh view now completely seen on the different side, we advice those holding Gold/Silver Ratio sell to exit with loss while in intraday we recommend selling silver on pullbacks both India and international markets. Traders note that key event today for Bullion would be Fed Chair, Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Her comments over interest rate, economy and inflation may infuse high volatility in broader markets including Bullion tonight.

 Commodity Tips

SELL MENTHA OIL MCX JUL BELOW 700 SL 710 TGT 690-681

SELL SILVER MCX SEP BELOW 44980 SL 45200 TGT 44600-44300

Today Economic Data Indicators:

DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
15.07.14 11:30 JN Machine Tool Order YoY Jun F — 34.2
15.07.14 14:00 UK CPI MoM Jun 0.0 -0.1
15.07.14 14:00 UK CPI YoY Jun 1.7 1.5
15.07.14 14:00 UK CPI Core YoY Jun 1.8 1.6
15.07.14 14:30 GE Zew Survey Current Situation Jul 67.9 67.7
15.07.14 14:30 GE Zew Survey Expectations Jul 30.0 29.8
15.07.14 14:30 EC Zew Survey Expectations Jul —  
15.07.14 18:00 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jun 0.6 0.3
15.07.14 18:00 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jun 0.6 0.1
15.07.14 18:00 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Jun 0.6 0.0
15.07.14 18:00 US Empire Manufacturing Jul 17.0 19.3
15.07.14 18:00 US Import Price Index MoM Jun 0.4 0.1
15.07.14 18:00 US Import Price Index YoY Jun — 0.4
15.07.14 18:00 US Business Inventories May 0.6 0.6

                     

CPI, Housing Numbers and Commodity Trading Tips

Posted on by

Crude Oil prices fell yesterday as prices took note of weakness in the Brent, notwithstanding the tensions going on in the European region. The US based crude though saw a moderately better performance led by improving industrial output number in the US and positive trading in the US equity markets. Overall, as also stated in our weekly report, we continue to hold a negative stance on the commodity on expectations that crude oil demand in the US owing to slowing down winter. A similar impact can also be seen into the inventory scenario in the country over the past couple of weeks. We are not expecting any major positivity out of the tomorrows inventory number either.

In other related cues for the commodity, Hedge funds cut their long bets into the commodity from record levels last week. As per data from CFTC and updations from Bloomberg, money managers reduced their Net long position by 5.3% for the week ended March 11, its first decline in past eight weeks. Long positions fell nearly 3% while shorts rose for a third week. This further strengthens our stance towards the lower side on the commodity. We advice traders to build short positions into the commodity on pull-backs today.

Looking at some other aspects for the commodity, we had earlier recommend traders to look for rolling-over their long positions into next contract on declines. MCX, Mar-Apr spread currently stands near Rs 20. Though gains potential in spread from here looks limited ahead of expiry tomorrow, traders holding long positions during medium term are advised to continue rolling over on declines

Global market analysis: Market reactions remained mostly muted to the latest developments in Ukraine. The US markets posted a positive close overnight and the Asians are trading mainly positive this morning supported by higher Japanese stocks and weakening Yen. From the FX front, euro advanced to $1.3940 despite the euro zone annual inflation dropped in February. The USD index remained lower at 79.348.

Coming to crude oil, April future WTI oil prices fell by 0.82% last day and this morning is seen trading at $97.95. We believe the weakness on the commodity may remain mounted. We expect the crude stockpiles may continue to increase which may further pressure the commodity to trade down. So, for the day we recommend selling oil from higher levels. Lastly from the economic data front, we have the German’s WPI, ZEW survey, euro-zone trade balance, US CPI, housing numbers and the TIC flows.

Commodity Trading Tips

SELL GOLD MCX APRIL BELOW 30300 SL 30400 TGT 30200-30130

SELL CRUDE OIL MCX APR NEAR 6025 SL 6065 TGT 5975

Today Economic Data Indicators:

DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
18.03.14 15:30 EC ZEW Survey Current Situation Mar 52.90 50.00
18.03.14 15:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Mar — 68.50
18.03.14 15:30 EC Trade Balance SA Jan — 13.7B
18.03.14 18:00 US CPI MoM Feb 0.1% 0.1%
18.03.14 18:00 US CPI YoY Feb 1.3% 1.6%
18.03.14 18:00 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Feb 1.6% 1.6%
18.03.14 18:00 US Housing Starts Feb 915K 880K
18.03.14 18:00 US Housing Starts MoM Feb 4.0% -16.0%
18.03.14 18:00 US Building Permits Feb 965K 937K