Crude oil for most active November expiry at the NYMEX witnessed a mercurial trading session on Monday. Oil prices trade on a negative note for most of Asian and European session though the commodity recorded decent pull-back in the US trading hours, finally finishing at $102.40 and net higher for the day by 0.4%. Overall markets took optimism regarding the developments on debt issues in the US amidst lack of any major economic data. At the MCX, Crude oil for active October month finished with firm gains of 1.3% to Rs 6288 per barrel, taking additional gains out of the Rupees’ depreciation in against the US Dollar.
While markets await triggers for direction in the coming trading sessions, broader fundamentals still depict weakness in the commodity. In important updates regarding oil, government officials from China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and US will meet their Iranian counterparts in Geneva today for two days of talks, its first such major talk regarding the Nuclear program in Iran. While we don’t expect any major breakthrough out of the talks in this meeting itself, it is a positive step for the overall oil markets globally. If we get to see some positive comments, there could be some pressure building into the black liquid and especially in Brent over the coming sessions.
While US markets managed smart pull-back from the lows of the day yesterday, trading participation was almost half as equated to Friday as the nation witnessed the Columbus Day holiday. In the US, both the commodity and equity markets worked normally, though bond markets were shut inflicting trading participation heavily. NYMEX November and December trading volumes declined 46% and 50% respectively on Monday.
Amongst other related cues globally, major equity indices in the west finished with moderate gains yesterday and similar impact is being witnessed in their Asian counterparts today morning. Markets moved up led by optimism that a solution to the US debt troubles might be on the cards over the next few sessions. The Republicans and Democrats are working full-cycle to find a middle path so as to raise the debt limit and do away with the uncertainty regarding the budget impasse.
During the day, we have the Industrial production data from Japan which is expected to be on a moderate negative note. This would be followed by the German Import prices and bunch of data from the UK which is likely to remain at a blend. Importantly, we have the ZEW survey for the EU region which could provide a negative surprise to the markets if we go with the recent batch of data from the region. During the evening session, we have the US Empire manufacturing gauge which could be subdued amidst the ongoing shutdown in the US. Locally the Rupee has opened marginally positive and is broadly expected to trade in a tight range.
Overall oil markets continue to trade in a broader range between the $103.50 on the higher side and $101 on the lower side of trade. We feel markets may see continuing volatility in the aforementioned range with the trading bias extending on the lower side. Recommend selling on pull-backs during Intra-day.
BULLION:
Gold Projected High Range at 28931-29292
Gold Projected Low Range at 28852-28491
Gold Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 29129-29459-29794
Gold Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 28402-28051-27680
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 28737
Silver Projected High Range at 47680-48346
Silver Projected Low Range at 47625-46956
Silver Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 48022-48670-49319
Silver Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 46690-46006-45358
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 47338
BASE METALS:
Copper Projected High Range at 452-457
Copper Projected Low Range at 449-444
Copper Mcx Nov Resistance on Upside at 455-459-462
Copper Mcx Nov Support on Low side at 446-441-437
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 450
Nickle Projected High Range at 863-873
Nickle Projected Low Range at 859-849
Nickel Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 868-877-886
Nickel Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 848-837-828
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 857
ENERGY:
Crude Projected High Range at 6311-6381
Crude Projected Low Range at 6306-6233
Crude Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 6347-6414-6481
Crude Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 6208-6136-6069
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6275
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 236-238
Natural Gas Projected Low Range at 235-232
Natural Gas Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 237-239-241
Natural Gas Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 232-229-227
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 234
Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 863-870
Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 855-848
Mentha Oil Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 868-873-878
Mentha Oil Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 853-843-838
Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 858
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
SELL CRUDE OIL MCX OCT BELOW 6275 SL 6300 TGT 6250-6225
SELL MENTHA OIL MCX OCT BELOW 858.50 SL 864.50 TGT 853
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 15.10.2013 | 10:00 | JN | Industrial Production MoM | Aug-F | — | -0.70% |
| 15.10.2013 | 10:00 | JN | Capacity Utilization MoM | Aug | —- | 3.70% |
| 15.10.2013 | 14:00 | UK | Retail Price Index | Sep | 251.9 | 251 |
| 15.10.2013 | 14:30 | EC | Zew Survey Expectations | Oct | — | 58.6 |
| 15.10.2013 | 14:30 | GE | Zew Survey Current Situation | Oct | 30.4 | 30.6 |
| 15.10.2013 | 14:30 | GE | Zew Survey Expectations | Oct | 51 | 49.6 |
| 15.10.2013 | 18:00 | US | Empire Manufacturing | Oct | 8 | 6.9 |
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