Gold’s trend has been highly volatile this week. Despite being four days into the week, there has been no major change in gold prices. As of this morning, gold is trading at $1285, reversed from its weekly low of $1250. There has been a sign of buying from the lower levels while the U.S government shutdown is still looming over the world market. Overnight, the US senate passed the debt limit deal and voted to reopen the government. This has created slight optimism in the US markets and is believed to have a positive impact on the riskier assets. However, there have been no signs of a price decline in gold yet.
We believe that gold should remain within a confined range as it is taking cues from the US debt ceiling while showing a rise in prices due to gold’s safe haven appeal. As far as today is concerned, we believe that gold might advance during the Asian and in the early European sessions while it should remain volatile in the US session. From Europe, we have the ECB current account and construction output number, which may a have negative impact on the euro and should cause slight negativity in gold. Later today, we have the jobless claims data from the US, which are expected to be negative for the economy and thereby likely to show a slight improvement in gold. Furthermore, we have few data in the form of housing numbers, which are expected to show a mixed impact on gold.
Looking at the above analysis, we believe that gold might remain volatile in today’s trade. Hence, we suggest buying initially while it may further turn negative and suggest selling from the higher levels.
Silver’s December futures prices traded marginally higher in the previous trading session and ended at $21.36. Likewise, domestic silver prices also traded slightly higher and ended at Rs 49376. Although there was a slight appreciation in silver prices, the overall trading participation was thin and the price movement was also low. The markets were cautious in the last trading session as the US debt ceiling discussions were on the average of coming to a close. However, the senate passed the bill for approval, which helped the US equities trade on a positive note, supporting industrial metals to trade higher. Therefore, silver prices also showed a slight improvement in trading.
As of today, silver’s December futures at the Globex electronic platform are trading at $21.28, down by 8 cents from the previous close. Late on Wednesday night (IST), the US House and the Senate passed the bill to end the partial shutdown in the world’s largest economy. This news is likely to keep the dollar stronger and thereby, we might witness a fall in the safe haven commodity. Hence, gold prices are expected to trade down in today’s session and so, we may see silver prices also trading down. As we have already discussed, the economic data in our bullion and global market analysis report, we believe that the conventional data may not have much of an impact on the market while the sell off-on silver could be noticed post the passing of the US bill to end the government shutdown. Overall, we expect silver prices to trade down for the day. However, we believe that silver may fall more than gold in today’s trading session. Hence, we also recommend trading with a ratio strategy by selling silver and buying gold for the day.
BULLION:
Gold Projected High Range at 29023-29242
Gold Projected Low Range at 28936-28717
Gold Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 29147-29336-29526
Gold Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 28710-28462-28273
Gold Trend Deciding Point at 28899
Silver Projected High Range at 47426-47741
Silver Projected Low Range at 47339-47024
Silver Mcx Dec Resistance on Upside at 47598-47884-48710
Silver Mcx Dec Support on Low side at 46968-46624-46338
Silver Trend Deciding Point at 47254
BASE METALS:
Copper Projected High Range at 454-457
Copper Projected Low Range at 453-450
Copper Mcx Nov Resistance on Upside at 456-459-461
Copper Mcx Nov Support on Low side at 450-446-443
Copper Trend Deciding Point at 452
Nickle Projected High Range at 866-871
Nickle Projected Low Range at 862-857
Nickel Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 869-873-878
Nickel Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 858-851-847
Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 862
ENERGY:
Crude Projected High Range at 6331-6393
Crude Projected Low Range at 6302-6240
Crude Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 6367-6419-6472
Crude Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 6243-6171-6119
Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6295
Natural Gas Projected High Range at 236-238
Natural Gas Projected Low Range at 237-235
Natural Gas Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 237-240-243
Natural Gas Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 232-229-227
Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 235
TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
SELL CRUDE OIL MCX OCT BELOW 6280 SL 6300 TGT 6244
BUY NATURAL GAS MCX OCT ABOVE 235 SL 232.75 TGT 237
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 17.10.2013 | 11:30 | JN | Machine Tools orders YoY | Sep F | — | -6.30% |
| 17.10.2013 | 13:30 | EC | ECB Current Account SA | Aug | — | 16.9B |
| 17.10.2013 | 14:30 | EC | Construction Output MoM | Aug | — | 0.30% |
| 17.10.2013 | 18:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | Oct-11 | — | 374K |
| 17.10.2013 | 18:00 | US | Continuing Claims | Oct-04 | — | 2905K |
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