Crude oil prices for the most active January expiry at the NYMEX platform finished moderately lower, down by 0.45% towards the end of the trading session, at $93.70 per barrel. Oil prices gave away their gains from the early morning and afternoon sessions which were also negated by the better than expected US economic data. Prices fell as the markets expected another round of weaker weekly inventory reports from the US. In the Indian markets, MCX crude for the December expiry was little changed and closed at Rs 5957 per barrel as it gained some support from the modest depreciation in the rupee.
Late last night (IST), the American Petroleum Institute released its weekly inventory report which showed that crude stocks rose for the ninth week in a row, inching higher by 6.9 million barrels, way higher than market expectations of a moderate drop. In product related stocks however, the markets did not take many cues as gasoline inventories gained marginally, though distillate stockpiles fell in-line with the broader expectations. This morning, the Asian equities are taking a few negative cues from the API inventory data while the markets await the major weekly report from the US Department of Energy.
As per broader expectations, crude oil stocks probably rose by 750,000 barrels for the week ended 22 November whereas product related stocks are expected to remain on a mixed note. We feel that we could see a higher increase in the DoE crude, wherein our expectations were further boosted post the weaker API crude stocks data. Another negative factor we have been commenting on continuously over the past few weeks is the rise in Cushing stocks, the delivery point for NYMEX crude. We expect it to see another round of increase in the latest data.
Amongst the global markets cues, the US stocks ended on a flat to slightly higher note on Tuesday after the housing data unexpectedly turned positive however, soft consumer confidence data kept expectations going that the Federal Reserve would make no change to its managed policies. Therefore, Asian equities this morning are trading mixed to slightly bearish. From the currency front, the US dollar index fell sharply and the euro advanced despite the Asian currencies trading slightly weaker this morning. From commodities, despite the euro advancing, we have not seen any kind of support to the broader commodity basket. Coming to economic data, we have a number of releases from the euro-zone and the US today. Since the US markets are closed tomorrow due to Thanksgiving, most of the economic data are releasing today. The US jobless claims number and durable goods order is due today, to name just a few. We believe that these data may be slightly depressing for the economy.
In some other updations for the commodity, WTI crude for January expiry was trading marginally lower at $93.40 per barrel level in the early Asian trade. The other major global benchmark, the Brent crude for January finish was modestly higher to $111 per barrel in London. The spread between the commodity pairs increased today to over $17.5 per barrel its widest gap in nearly eight months. The NYMEX is trading weak due to its own fundamentals whereas the Brent is taking strength out of speculation that the OPEC would not make any changes to its near term production forecast, when the group meets next month in Vienna. We on the other side are not expecting any major move out of current trend and feel that for the short-term the spread has moved higher than its actual strength.
For Crude at WTI and our local markets at MCX, as also mentioned above we have the important data from the US department of Energy which is likely to keep the pressure on prices. Overall we continue to hold bearish view for the day and recommend selling on higher levels in the commodity.
COMMODITY INTRADAY TRADING TIPS
SELL CRUDE OIL MCX DEC BELOW 5852 SL 5872 TGT 5836-5817
SELL NATURAL GAS MCX DEC BELOW 240 SL 242 TGT 238
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 27.11.2013 | 14:30 | GE | Gfk Consumer Confidence | Dec | 7 | 7 |
| 27.11.2013 | 15:00 | UK | GDP QoQ | 3Q P | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 27.11.2013 | 15:00 | UK | GDP YoY | 3Q p | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 27.11.2013 | 17:30 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | 448866 | — | -2.3% |
| 27.11.2013 | 19:00 | US | Jobless Claims | 45231 | 330K | 323K |
| 27.11.2013 | 19:00 | US | Continuing Claims | 42675 | — | 2876K |
| 27.11.2013 | 19:00 | US | Durable Goods Order | Oct | -1.7% | 3.7% |
| 27.11.2013 | 19:00 | US | Durables Ex Transportation | Oct | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 27.11.2013 | 19:00 | US | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | Oct | — | 14.0% |
| 27.11.2013 | 20:15 | US | Chicago Purchasing Manager | Nov | 60.5 | 65.9 |
| 27.11.2013 | 20:25 | US | Univ. of Michigan Confidence | Nov F | 73 | 72 |
| 27.11.2013 | 20:30 | US | Leading Index | Oct | 0.0% | 0.7% |
US Weekly Inventory Data Expectations
| DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 27.11.2013 | 21:00 | US | DOE US Crude Oil Inventories | Nov-22 | 750K | 375K |
| 27.11.2013 | 21:00 | US | DOE Cushing OK Crude Oil Inventory | Nov-22 | — | 1736K |
| 27.11.2013 | 21:00 | US | DOE US Gasoline Inventories | Nov-22 | 500K | -345K |
| 27.11.2013 | 21:00 | US | DOE US Distillate Inventory | Nov-22 | -1000 | -4795K |
| 27.11.2013 | 21:00 | US | DOE US Refinery Utilization | Nov-22 | 0.25% | -0.10% |
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