Crude oil prices for most active January expiry at the NYMEX finished sharply lower yesterday with prices falling around 1.5% to $92.30 per barrel mark. During the day, oil prices also touched $91.75 per barrel levels as markets took negative note led by the rise in crude oil inventory in the US. In the Indian markets, oil prices for most active December expiry slipped 1.9% to Rs 5780 per barrel level with the local markets also taking cues from the modest appreciation in the Indian Rupee.
As per the US Department of Energy, crude inventories scale by 2.95 million barrels to 391.4 million, its highest level since June wherein the increase was higher by nearly four times against forecast of an increase by 750,000 barrels. We also were anticipating a probably higher increase in inventory as against markets forecasts. Added to this, stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI rose for a seventh week to 40.6 million barrels whereas separate data showed, output in the country increased by 45,000 barrels a day to 8.02 MBPD for the week wrecked Nov 22, the majority in almost twenty five years.
In other important cues globally, Brent added weight as reports showed Libya is once again seeing clashes in the eastern region where the nation pumps more than 60% of its crude. The fresh round of troubles suggests that efforts from the country to recover its production have failed once again. Eventually, the spread between the Brent and the WTI jumped passed $19 per barrel, its widest in more than eight months.
Early morning today, most Asian stock markets are trading in the green and up by more than 0.50% taking cues from the positive close of the US stock markets. The emerging market currencies are reflecting the same sentiment as most of them are in an appreciating note early today. In the international currency markets the Dollar index pared most of its Intra-day losses especially in the evening session backed by better Initial Jobless Claims number. However, the other cues on the manufacturing side remained mixed with the Durable goods order falling though Non Chicago PMI riding high.
In the economic releases today, we have the import price index number from Germany, Unemployment change number, CPI and the consumer confidence number from the Euro zone. Overall movement especially in the evening hours might be muted as US markets are shut on account of Thanksgiving Day. Locally, the Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a range though might see modest appreciation which could help the weakness in the MCX market to continue. Overall we maintain our weak bias into Crude oil and recommend selling on pull-backs during the day.
COMMODITY INTRADAY TRADING TIPS
SELL NATURAL GAS MCX DEC BELOW 244 SL 246.75 TGT 222
BUY CRUDE OIL MCX DEC BAOVE 5795 SL 5775 TGT 5815
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
| DATE | TIME | Region | Indicator | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 28.11.2013 | 14:25 | GE | Unemployment Change | Nov | 0K | 2K |
| 28.11.2013 | 14:25 | GE | Unemployment Rate | Nov | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 28.11.2013 | 14:30 | EC | M3 Money Supply YoY | Oct | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 28.11.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Business Climate Indicator | Nov | 10% | -1.0% |
| 28.11.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Economic Confidence | Nov | 98 | 97.8 |
| 28.11.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Industrial Confidence | Nov | -4.5 | -4.8 |
| 28.11.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Consumer Confidence | Nov F | -15.4 | -15.4 |
| 28.11.2013 | 15:30 | EC | Service Confidence | Nov | -3.5 | -.37 |
| 28.11.2013 | 18:30 | GE | CPI MoM | Nov P | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 28.11.2013 | 18:30 | GE | CPI YoY | Nov P | 1.2% | 1.2% |
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