Gold Can Hold Its Shine

BULLION:

Gold October futures are trading flat at $1334.Although the dollar index is trading marginally up by 0.11%, gold prices are also trading up by 0.10%. SPDR, the largest bullion-backed ETF remained unchanged at 911 tons from the previous day’s closing. From the derivatives point of view, prices and volumes have increased while open interest has declined, which indicates that investors are liquidating their positions at higher prices. It also shows that traders are involved in intraday trading. The Indian government is looking at increasing the import duty on gold to curb gold imports, the reason for the widening of the current account deficit. The import duty on gold is currently 8%. Hence, the gold prices might remain on the higher side. From the euro-zone, industrial production and Zew surveys are expected to remain positive, which would support the euro and extend the gains in gold prices. However, we can see some pressure on gold prices on the back of the appreciation in the dollar. Retail sales might improve and support the gains in the dollar index. Gold prices might see limited gain

s. At the MCX, gold prices might remain on the higher side on the back of depreciation in the rupee against the dollar. Nevertheless, we expect gold prices to remain on the higher side due to the weakness in the dollar. Overall, we recommend remaining on the buying side.

Gold Projected High Range at 28989-29499

Gold Projected Low Range at 28599-28089

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 29309-29689-30069

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 28289-27647-27269

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 28669

Silver Projected High Range at 46019-47703

Silver Projected Low Range at 44673-42989

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 47086-48321-49556

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 43718-41585-40350

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 44953

BASE METALS:

Base metals to witness a flat opening at the MCX. In the past few sessions, we have witnessed the inventories of most of the base metals see a draw down, along with better manufacturing numbers, which indicates the increase in downstream activity. However, the markets are concerned over any term tightening. Fundamentally, copper should continue to remain weak amidst higher treatment charges (high tc /rc charges indicates higher supply and should cap gains in the red metal). Lead and nickel should also halt their gains amidst weak Chinese passenger car sales and falling warrants. Overall, we expect the gains in bas e metals to be limited, supported by a higher dollar. At the M CX, the weakness of the rupee should remain favorable e for prices.

Copper Projected High Range at 448-452

Copper Projected Low Range at 445-442

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 450-453-456

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 443-439-436

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 446

Nickel Projected High Range at 907-918

Nickel Projected Low Range at 904-893

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 913-923-933

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 890-878-868

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 901

CRUDE:

CRUDE OIL, Key cues to watch in the next two sessions would be the crude and other related products inventory data for the week ended August 09, 2013. The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly inventory data later tonight. The Department of Energy is expected to release its inventory report tomorrow evening. Oil prices were higher in today’s session with WTI Crude already trading at its highest level in nearly a week amidst anticipation that crude inventory would once again see a decline, its sixth fall in the last seven weeks. According to markets expectations, crude stocks fell by 1.55 million barrels as of August 9 whereas gasoline inventories also resumed a slide after unexpectedly inching higher in the last couple of weeks. The fall in gasoline stocks would also strengthen the view that fuel demand in the US remains robust due to the summer driving season.

Amongst major economic cues for today’s session, most of the Asian equities are trading positive, taking cues from Japanese economic data. Early this morning, data showed that Japanese machine orders declined at a slower pace of 2.7%, against markets expectations of a drop in the range of 7%. Going ahead, the industrial production and Zew survey numbers from Europe will be closely watched where both of them are expected to remain on the bullish side. In the evening session, US Retail sales would be critical as it gives cues about the US’ consumption pattern. While we feel that retail sales would continue to show improvement, a surprise drop or higher than expected rise in the same could take the markets in either direction.

Crude Projected High Range at 6499-6547

Crude Projected Low Range at 6468-6420

Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6530-6566-6604

Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6433-6374-6336

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6470

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 205-210

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 202-197

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 208-212-216

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 199-193-189

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 203

Mentha Oil:

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 828-836

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 832-823

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 831-841-852

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 814-806-796

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 824

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS

Sell Crude Oil Mcx Aug below 6520 sl 6540 Tgt 6504

Buy Mentha Oil Mcx Aug above 824 sl 818 Tgt 831

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

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