How Hot Gold Today

BULLION:

Gold October futures are trading at $1329, up 1.30% from the previous close. Although the dollar index is trading marginally higher by 0.14%, gold prices were also seen trading up by 1.30%. SPDR holdings, the largest bullion-backed ETF increased by 0.20% and settled at 911 tons, indicating that gold prices may recover from the downside. From the derivatives point of view, prices and open interest have increased while volumes have declined an indication that new money is entering the markets and may support gold prices upside. At present, gold prices are trading up and, we expect the gains to continue in today’s session. Although there are no major economic releases from Europe, the French bond auction should be closely watched. Recently, the French budget missed the deficit reduction and unemployment also remained higher at 11.20%, which might pressurize the euro and limit the gains in gold prices. In the US hours, the monthly budget statement is expected to widen, which could pressurize the dollar and support gold prices. At the MCX, gold prices may see limited gains due to the appreciation in the rupee. Although due to the appreciation in rupee and weakening of shared currency might limit the gains in gold prices, we expect gold prices to remain on the higher side.

Gold Projected High Range at 27923-27955

Gold Projected Low Range at 27923-27895

Gold Mcx Oct Resistance on Upside at 27938-27971-28003

Gold Mcx Oct Support on Low side at 27875-27842-27810

Gold Trend Deciding Point at 27907

Silver Projected High Range at 42731-42799

Silver Projected Low Range at 42731-42663

Silver Mcx Sep Resistance on Upside at 42765-42833-42900

Silver Mcx Sep Support on Low side at 42630-42562-42495

Silver Trend Deciding Point at 42697

BASE METALS:

This morning, we expect base metals to witness a gap-down opening at the MCX aided by weak LME prices (down by 0.1% to 0.6%) and a strong rupee (appreciated 0.78% against the dollar). After better Chinese releases (last week) and improving spot activity, the downside in bas e metals might be limited. However, metal futures should struggle init ally in today’s session. The weakness in prices should be an opportunity to build long positions in base metals. Fundamentally, the stocks have declined for most of the base metals while the warrants have also improved and hence, buying at dips should be initiated. Technically, we expect a slight correction in metal prices initially and hence, any weakness should be taken as a buying opportunity in base metals.

Copper Projected High Range at 442-443

Copper Projected Low Range at 442-441

Copper Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 442-443-444

Copper Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 442-441-440

Copper Trend Deciding Point at 442

Nickel Projected High Range at 895-899

Nickel Projected Low Range at 892-888

Nickel Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 897-900-903

Nickel Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 889-884-881

Nickel Trend Deciding Point at 892

CRUDE:

Crude oil prices fell for the first four sessions in the week, bagged down by concerns that the US Fed could start tapering its monthly bond-buying program by September itself. During the week, three regional Fed Presidents namely, Charles Evans, Sandra Pianalto and Richard Fisher from Chicago, Cleveland and Dallas have said that the central bank may be closer to tapering the QE as the Labour market recovers, impacting the trend in riskier asset classes including oil. The latest batch of economic data from the US, mainly the Employment rate, Manufacturing and the Services numbers all have stood positive, building a case for trimming down the loose policy. Other than this, additional negativity for oil prices came out of the fact that weekly Crude inventory data, which was supposed to be better number came – in lower than expected. The US Department of Energy (DoE) in its report on crude inventory and refinery utilization data for the week ended August 2nd said that crude oil stocks fell 1.3 million barrels, lower than estimates whereas gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose 135,000 barrels against an expectation of an at least 500,000 barrel fall. Notwithstanding the above bearishness for larger part of the week, strong outperformance came on the last trading day. WTI Crude for September delivery jumped up 2.5% on Friday and finished a t $106 per barrel level led by encouraging economic data from China. Early morning Friday (IST), China came out with surprisingly positive industrial production and better retail sales and fixed investment data. Government data showed, its industrial production rose by staggering 9.7% for the month of June and topped almost all economists’ estimates by large number.

Though the retail and producer prices still remained weak overall better data boosted the trade in riskier asset classes including oil.

Latest reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the agency has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2014. It said that global oil consumption will rise by 1.1 million barrels a day (MBPD) to 92 million next year against earlier estimates of 92.1 MBPD. The agency added that global supply, particularly from the Non-OPEC members stand high and could exceed demand by the end of 2013 and is a negative for oil in the medium term. In the short-term scenario however, oil supplies are at risk due to ongoing and growing issues in the Middle-east. The IEA added that oil output from the OPEC’s 12 members fell by 165,000 BPD last month to 30.41 MBPD, the lowest in six months due to supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Some news reports show that Libyan oil exports fell by 20% in July to their lowest level since civil problems started in 2011. Exports in July were just about 780,000 BPD; with shipments running from only one major port leaving the other eight terminals almost at standstill.

Crude Projected High Range at 6421-6435

Crude Projected Low Range at 6420-6406

Crude Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 6429-6442-6456

Crude Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 6400-6386-6372

Crude Trend Deciding Point at 6414

Natural Gas Projected High Range at 196.2-197.7

Natural Gas Projected Loe Range at 196.8-195.5

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 197-198-199

Natural Gas Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 194-193-192

Natural Gas Trend Deciding Point at 196

Mentha Oil:

Mentha Oil Projected High Range at 852-862

Mentha Oil Projected Low Range at 858-848

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Resistance on Upside at 855-867-879

Mentha Oil Mcx Aug Support on Low side at 835-828-816

Mentha Oil Trend Deciding Point at 847

TODAY STOCK MARKET TIPS
Buy Crude Oil Mcx Aug Above 6440 add more on decline near 6420 sl 6400 Tgt 6480

Sell Natural Gas Mcx Aug below 196 sl 199.50 Tgt 193

ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH:

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